UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 Annnnnnnd we're right back at it...... Models have been trending towards a light to moderate snow event, while this is currently modeled to be an interior snow threat ATM, as we have seen, things can can change quickly... nam and euro are both moderate snowfalls north of I84, while GFS/GGEM remain in the warmer camp Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 Teleconnections point to this being a further south transfer (even the 18 z gfs showed that aloft). With an AO going negative pretty significantly and the PNA significantly positive, the through orientation points to a further south transfer than models are currently showing. Also, the NAO is neutral to negative. We may have some blocking. Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-N920A using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 9, 2017 Author Share Posted February 9, 2017 2 minutes ago, USCG RS said: Teleconnections point to this being a further south transfer (even the 18 z gfs showed that aloft). With an AO going negative pretty significantly and the PNA significantly positive, the through orientation points to a further south transfer than models are currently showing. Also, the NAO is neutral to negative. We may have some blocking. Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-N920A using Tapatalk Would def like to see this a little closer to neutral and further south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 Would def like to see this a little closer to neutral and further southThat's also 84 hr NAM. Yes it's been superb this year, but don't forget we aren't sampled yet either. The AO is crashing and the storm is a Miller B transfer from the looks of it. Combine those two, with a positive PNA (deep digging trough also) and the NAO potentially cooperating to slow this down, I would say Philly to Boston all need to monitor this. Granted Philly would be my southernmost cutoff. Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-N920A using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted February 10, 2017 Share Posted February 10, 2017 There's a million little upper impulses flitting through the northern stream on that chart... I would think we need them to either coalesce earlier and dig the trough or stay nebulous and let the system act as a swfe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 10, 2017 Author Share Posted February 10, 2017 19 minutes ago, Juliancolton said: There's a million little upper impulses flitting through the northern stream on that chart... I would think we need them to either coalesce earlier and dig the trough or stay nebulous and let the system act as a swfe. I would think a weaker SWFE would seem more likely Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted February 10, 2017 Share Posted February 10, 2017 18z GFS moved towards a more amplified, diggier solution. 18z 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 10, 2017 Author Share Posted February 10, 2017 Albany is gearing up Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Albany NY 628 PM EST Thu Feb 9 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Low pressure is exiting offshore New England tonight and high pressure is building in from the west. Cold and blustery conditions for tonight into Friday, with lake effect snow west of the Hudson Valley. A clipper system will bring a light snowfall to the region Friday night into early Saturday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/... Winter Storm Warnings expired... Clouds are exiting but there are still areas of clouds due to moisture off the great lakes. Northwest low level flow should keep the cloudiest conditions west of our area. Winds are still steady and at times gusty. Winds are expected to stay steady most of the night but some protected valleys could see light enough winds that temperatures drop quickly. Temperatures are falling slowly but again, if .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... The long term portion of the forecast will remain potentially very active, with temperatures averaging near to slightly below normal. The period will start off with another possible significant storm system for Sunday-Monday. The latest 12Z/ECWMF is most aggressive with rapid cyclogenesis occurring off the NJ coast, while the 12Z/GFS and GEFS has the strong cyclogenesis a bit farther N and E, with an overall warmer solution with the lead warm advective precip. For now, have trended toward an overall colder solution, closer to the ECMWF, esp with high temps for Sunday, which should only remain in the 20s and 30s. This would favor more snow than mixed precip or rain, although can not completely rule out some icing as well. If the storm strengthens as far S and E as the ECMWF suggests, than a transition to all snow, some possibly heavy, for Sunday night into at least early Monday. Again, trended toward this overall solution, with significant accums possible. A break in the storminess is possible for Mon-early Wed, then another storm system may impact the region for late Wed into Thu. For now, have only indicated snow showers for late Wed-Thu, but will have to watch the pattern closely, as a sharper northern stream trough could allow for more rapid cyclogenesis closer to the New England coast, possibly resulting in a steadier snowfall for at least eastern portions of the region. Temperatures through the period should range from the 20s across higher elevations, to the lower/mid 30s across valley areas. Overnight lows will mainly be in the single digits and teens, although even colder temps could occur on any nights in which periods of clear skies and lighter winds occur. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 10, 2017 Author Share Posted February 10, 2017 Nams amped up and really trailing the s/w energy, should be colder solution Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 10, 2017 Author Share Posted February 10, 2017 Nams a step towards a better solution despite rain/mix... 500 looked much improved Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFeen2000 Posted February 10, 2017 Share Posted February 10, 2017 13 minutes ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: Nams amped up and really trailing the s/w energy, should be colder solution I don't really care for this setup but hopefully we get a SWFE it's just too bad we don't have a high pressure to our north instead we have a weak low north of our main low that's trying to phase. Not a good setup for the coast, for you definitely a few inches at least! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 10, 2017 Author Share Posted February 10, 2017 Close to another big one up this way... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted February 10, 2017 Share Posted February 10, 2017 49 minutes ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: Close to another big one up this way... I think this will trend south given teleconnections Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted February 10, 2017 Share Posted February 10, 2017 GFS is digging more through 60. PNA ridge is pumped up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted February 10, 2017 Share Posted February 10, 2017 GFS is farther SW and stronger with the shortwave. Good trends from the GFS today. 00z 18z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 10, 2017 Share Posted February 10, 2017 3 days is enough time for things to trend better although I'm not sure it'll be enough to help the metro. SNE could do very well though yet again and maybe the northern parts of our area. Euro run will be really important to see where we're headed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted February 10, 2017 Share Posted February 10, 2017 GFS is farther SW and stronger with the shortwave. Good trends from the GFS today. 00z 18z That would take the surface right off the Delmarva. Given the teleconnections, this makes more sense to me. Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-N920A using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jason WX Posted February 10, 2017 Share Posted February 10, 2017 The Canadian also shifted south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 10, 2017 Author Share Posted February 10, 2017 Euro still going with 6+ north of 84... 3-6" south to rockland.... dusting to 1" south of rockland Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 10, 2017 Author Share Posted February 10, 2017 Nam and euro look similar, GFS is close to caving Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 10, 2017 Author Share Posted February 10, 2017 New England will see some stretch.... back to back blizzards less than 5 days apart Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted February 10, 2017 Share Posted February 10, 2017 Any chance for this to come a little more south to affect areas just north of 287 in Westchester county? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 10, 2017 Author Share Posted February 10, 2017 EPS and GEFS are loaded for this event for the interior Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted February 10, 2017 Share Posted February 10, 2017 And I don't think we are done trending Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted February 10, 2017 Share Posted February 10, 2017 Any chance for this to come a little more south to affect areas just north of 287 in Westchester county?Imho, yes. Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-N920A using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 10, 2017 Author Share Posted February 10, 2017 12z/12k nam Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 10, 2017 Author Share Posted February 10, 2017 Hi res drops about 6" north of 84 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow1 Posted February 10, 2017 Share Posted February 10, 2017 How far south can this thing come? Enough for accumulating snows in NYC metro? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 10, 2017 Author Share Posted February 10, 2017 5 minutes ago, snow1 said: How far south can this thing come? Enough for accumulating snows in NYC metro? Problem is temps, 850s and 2mt at above freezing till precip starts pulling out and colder air ushers in on back end Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted February 10, 2017 Share Posted February 10, 2017 24 minutes ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: Hi res drops about 6" north of 84 Well that's a little bump south looks to be around an 1" increase for Westchester county but a bunch more to north of Rockland and Putnam. Nice trends so far. Maybe I can get up to advisory snows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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