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February 8-9 Short range disco and Obs - STORM MODE


stormtracker

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12 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

HRRR is initalizing a little warm in my backyard and areas around me, FWIW.

I hope so. It seems to have the snowfall gradient right at the M/D line. 

Literally the heaviest precip is from 3-6am on that run, so whoever is on the right side of the rain/snow line during that time gets the snow.

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7 minutes ago, RDM said:

The "Heavy Snow Possible" region on NOAA's forecast page looks aggressively south.  Brings it down to MOCO and the Balt Beltway.  Not the most scientific map out there, but interesting to see it so far South of the MasonDixon.

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/national_forecast/natfcst.php

It was issued before the 18z runs, back when chances were looking good for this area.

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I noticed there was over 3 inches of snow in central IL in the weaker early stages of this system. But in general, the idea of following the system along and moving the details along various tracks will have limitations because of the explosive development likely to begin around 06z. In fact there is probably colder air waiting ahead of the system to rush in from the northeast, and whatever is tagging along from the northwest will be a dead issue by then. This will change from a rather pedestrian sort of system now to quite a dynamic storm 06z-10z to an explosive cyclone after that. The weather isn't going to move in, it's going to develop out of these ingredients. What's about to happen isn't yet happening anywhere. 

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