mitchnick Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 Severe weather watches have gone up in TN http://weather.unisys.com/radar/hires_rad.php?image=rad&inv=0&t=l3®ion=us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 9 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: And now the 22 early on looks to be a major reduction. Probably should wait till it finishes tho. Make sure your frames line up between runs. 22z should be okay for us. eta: The last frame shows less overall I'd assume from what someone mentioned about the quicker cutoff, but I like the comparison look a a few frames earlier. The 22z run is similar at 12z compared to the 20z run, but less than 21z. It's all still noise at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ErinInTheSky Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 56/41. I have to get down to 53 in the next hour and a half to be on track for the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 7 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Down to 48 been dropping fast but the dp less so. I'd rather the other way around. What relation does the dew have to the storm? Is it a rough ballpark of how low the temperature will fall when the precip gets going? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 The "good" runs of the GFS and RGEM had me at 50 degrees at 7 tonight. Sitting at 61.5. I'm thinking we might not even see snow TV here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 22z Hrrr pretty light with the qpf http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=hrrr®ion=neus&pkg=apcpn&runtime=2017020822&fh=18&xpos=0&ypos=120 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 4 minutes ago, Fozz said: What relation does the dew have to the storm? Is it a rough ballpark of how low the temperature will fall when the precip gets going? Your Temp can only go as low as Your DP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 1 minute ago, mitchnick said: 22z Hrrr pretty light with the qpf http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=hrrr®ion=neus&pkg=apcpn&runtime=2017020822&fh=18&xpos=0&ypos=120 Yea. There are two ways to look at that. Pessimist: that dry and we're screwed. We need the moisture bomb scenario to crash temps and get accumulations. Optimist: yea but it's running pretty cold and quick with the changeover even with that meager qpf. So if the precip from all other guidance verifies with the hrrr thermals it could end well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 1 minute ago, DCTeacherman said: The "good" runs of the GFS and RGEM had me at 50 degrees at 7 tonight. Sitting at 61.5. I'm thinking we might not even see snow TV here. It's 37 with rain in Johnstown, PA and 41 in State College. The really cold stuff is up near Bradford, PA. Sadly, we're going to lose the race it seems. http://weather.unisys.com/surface/sfc_map.php?inv=0&t=cur®ion=at&expanddiv=hide_bar Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lpaschall Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 49/41 NNE7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 Just now, mitchnick said: It's 37 with rain in Johnstown, PA and 41 in State College. The really cold stuff is up near Bradford, PA. Sadly, we're going to lose the race it seems. http://weather.unisys.com/surface/sfc_map.php?inv=0&t=cur®ion=at&expanddiv=hide_bar That air doesn't have to move here. It's night, precip, cold aloft can take those temps down fast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 Just now, WinterWxLuvr said: That air doesn't have to move here. It's night, precip, cold aloft can take those temps down fast. If the Hrrr is close to correct with qpf, I think you'd agree that between .5-.74" qpf won't do it in light of current temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Yea. There are two ways to look at that. Pessimist: that dry and we're screwed. We need the moisture bomb scenario to crash temps and get accumulations. Optimist: yea but it's running pretty cold and quick with the changeover even with that meager qpf. So if the precip from all other guidance verifies with the hrrr thermals it could end well. You forgot realist. ....it's still 61 degrees. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 1 minute ago, mitchnick said: If the Hrrr is close to correct with qpf, I think you'd agree that between .5-.74" qpf won't do it in light of current temps. EDIT: Well, I'm talking mby so you would be different. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 57/38 with light N wind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paulythegun Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 Downtown DC (RIGHT downtown) 62/44. The air is muggy this night, my friends.... Like an old man trying to send back atmospheric soup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 2 minutes ago, mitchnick said: If the Hrrr is close to correct with qpf, I think you'd agree that between .5-.74" qpf won't do it in light of current temps. I'm skeptical. I'm skeptical of the hrrr in the first place. I'm skeptical of the precip amounts. I'm skeptical of what temps will be here at the onset. I think all I can do is wait and see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 Deff a little behind schedule in terms of temp drop particularly for the cities/around I95. Looks closer to being on par with models out near western PA so hard to say what effect that might have yet. HRRR will likely bounce around next couple runs, Ill take it more seriously around 03Z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PivotPoint Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 slp a little further south then 18z gfs and 12z euro had it at 23z.... I don't see reason to jump ship 56/38 in tysons Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 4 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: I'm skeptical. I'm skeptical of the hrrr in the first place. I'm skeptical of the precip amounts. I'm skeptical of what temps will be here at the onset. I think all I can do is wait and see. You'll do fine, you are located in far north VA, at least 5-8 inches for you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 52/37 Didnt get to upper 40's by dark. Concerning for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paulythegun Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 Deff a little behind schedule in terms of temp drop particularly for the cities/around I95. Looks closer to being on par with models out near western PA so hard to say what effect that might have yet. HRRR will likely bounce around next couple runs, Ill take it more seriously around 03ZIn terms of temp drop, you'll want to look at the SPC meso analysis at 850 and compare that. That's about where it is on 18z NAM, with some slight NW adjustments in New England. I'm not even sure that matters much though. We need one of the following:1) slow it down (it's going faster than yesterday's guidance) though maybe it will stall as it bombs2) blow it up (that ones working out for us as it looks incredibly healthy at the 850mb level according to cranky weather guy)3) angle it a bit further south (swing and a miss on that one...).Sent from my Pixel using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 I was thinking 3-6 and maybe even leaving 4-8 here with my 1050 elevation after the 12z suite. Not sure what your elevation is. But the 18z stuff was concerning a bit. We have no wiggle room for a north trend or even a wiggle. Right now I'd probably still stick with 3-6 but lean lower rather then higher but the 18z guidance has me spooked because it went the wrong way after 12z looked better. I'm at 700 or so depending on where in my yard you are standing 50/40 here Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 I think the models have handled this relatively fine the last 24 hours all said, most movements have been mostly noise. Obviously we can interpret them differently. Heres my final take on some accums for specific cities. DC-trace to 0.5" BWI-0.5-1" Baltimore-1" Westminster-3" York PA-5" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 I think this is realistic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 Just now, Fozz said: I think this is realistic. I agree, but if I have to nitpick, I just dont see the 2-3" in the cards for metro Bal/BWI and around I95 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 Temps will get there but mitch is right....race against time. Would love to be at the rents in Stewartstown for this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 4 minutes ago, BaltimoreWxGuy said: I agree, but if I have to nitpick, I just dont see the 2-3" in the cards for metro Bal/BWI and around I95 He focuses more on PA, but I think his sharp gradient between 1-3" and 4-8" is in a realistic spot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 HRRR is initalizing a little warm in my backyard and areas around me, FWIW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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