Bob Chill Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 Just now, cae said: The 18z RGEM is also coming in warmer. Let's hope it's an 18z blip. Actual temps are warmer than what was modeled @ 12z. I don't think it's blip more than just adjusting to the ground truth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 1 minute ago, cae said: The 18z RGEM is also coming in warmer. Let's hope it's an 18z blip. The SLP is not as strong and further north on the 18 panel Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 2 minutes ago, cae said: The 18z RGEM is also coming in warmer. Let's hope it's an 18z blip. No time for anymore blips really. It's game time. Nowcasting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RevWarReenactor Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 If we shall nowcast, not really liking this even up here, its 64 degrees at 4pm, I am just not seeing it. Kind of reminds me of those 34 degree snowfalls that don't stick. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 7 minutes ago, Fozz said: IIRC, both October 2011 and early Feb 2014 had last minute jumps to the north. I don't know what this storm will do, but the NAMs and HRRR aren't looking very encouraging, not to mention temps today ended several degrees warmer than what many of the "good" 12z runs predicted, which will make a difference for those of us on the edge. At this point, I have no idea whether to trust the short term/mesoscale models or the usual global models. Yea and what worries me about that fact is I don't have the wiggle room this time I did with those 2 examples. Those times the shift north only meant a little less snow here but screwed Baltimore. This time Baltimore is already screwed (sorry but true) and a shift north screws up here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 12 minutes ago, cae said: The 18z RGEM is also coming in warmer. Let's hope it's an 18z blip. Yea hope so but 3/4 pieces of guidance coming in warmer right before the storm when ground truth supports that doesn't feel like a blip. It feels more like a "were screwed" ETA. Actually 4/4. 12k nam was warmer too but snowfall increased because of a crazy back edge band. That's living dangerously. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 6 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Yea and what worries me about that fact is I don't have the wiggle room this time I did with those 2 examples. Those times the shift north only meant a little less snow here but screwed Baltimore. This time Baltimore is already screwed (sorry but true) and a shift north screws up here. Just about every model that had a good storm for my area predicted a high around 64-65 at BWI. It was 70. That's going to make a difference as temps will struggle to fall as much as they would've fallen if it was slightly cooler, which is why I think it will be more of a 1-3" event for northern MD rather than 3-7". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RichmondTarHeel Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 Down to 61/42 according to my el cheapo weather station here in fairfax. I'm pretty much out of the game at this point, but I'm rooting for you northerners. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 61 in columbia. this is one of those events where you keep expectations low and whatever happens happens. really no need to get frustrated imo. any snow is a bonus after the spring weather this week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 7 minutes ago, Fozz said: Just about every model that had a good storm for my area predicted a high around 64-65 at BWI. It was 70. That's going to make a difference as temps will struggle to fall as much as they would've fallen if it was slightly cooler, which is why I think it will be more of a 1-3" event for northern MD rather than 3-7". Well everything had pretty good snow up here with 12z but man was it close. Only 10 miles south was almost nothing on some guidance. But still just about every 12z run was 4-8" up here. So that I guess lended some hope. But the 18z so far took that north shift I've been worried about. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSG Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 28 minutes ago, MD Snow said: Not putting any stock in it. This is an observation thread. I use the HRRR to observe trends from run to run and compare with current surface trends etc. Isn't that what this thread is supposed to be about? I'm not going to get any accumulating snow south of baltimore. However, I am interested to see if I actually flip over to snow and how much snow areas north and west of me get. I use the HRRR to look at short term trends. I agree that it's a great tool for the reasons you stated. I just don't see how posting the latest 18hr reflectivity map could offer any "trend" analysis considering you won't have another HRRR run to compare that hour to. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smokeybandit Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 The setup reminds me of a storm in 2000 or so. Was 70 the day before, woke up to 2" of snow on the ground. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cae Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 14 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Yea hope so but 3/4 pieces of guidance coming in warmer right before the storm when ground truth supports that doesn't feel like a blip. It feels more like a "were screwed" ETA. Actually 4/4. 12k nam was warmer too but snowfall increased because of a crazy back edge band. That's living dangerously. I agree, but I'm probalby going to stay up and suffer through the 12z suite anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 10 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Well everything had pretty good snow up here with 12z but man was it close. Only 10 miles south was almost nothing on some guidance. But still just about every 12z run was 4-8" up here. So that I guess lended some hope. But the 18z so far took that north shift I've been worried about. GFS still gives me slight hope, and still looks good for you. I'm just going to hope my elevation saves me, or else it's a sharp gradient 5 miles north of me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 9 minutes ago, TSG said: I agree that it's a great tool for the reasons you stated. I just don't see how posting the latest 18hr reflectivity map could offer any "trend" analysis considering you won't have another HRRR run to compare that hour to. I've been preaching to not use the last frames of the hrrr for a while on here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 Wow! LWX Max potential went way up... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 I'll take these odds... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 2 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: I'll take these odds... Since this is a storm mode thread, I'm going to make a request for the northerners to stop picking on us metro folks. Those are very respectable probabilities! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 9 minutes ago, Fozz said: GFS still gives me slight hope, and still looks good for you. I'm just going to hope my elevation saves me, or else it's a sharp gradient 5 miles north of me. Where are you? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RickinBaltimore Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 9 minutes ago, BTRWx said: Wow! LWX Max potential went way up... Go home LWX, you're drunk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 9 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Where are you? Between 695 and Oregon Ridge. Not a bad spot most of the time, but this time I think it's going to take a lot of luck for things to work. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 8 minutes ago, UIWWildthing said: Go home LWX, you're drunk. Nothing like potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 20 minutes ago, Fozz said: GFS still gives me slight hope, and still looks good for you. I'm just going to hope my elevation saves me, or else it's a sharp gradient 5 miles north of me. Wait until the 0z suite comes out and it has shift another 50 miles north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paulythegun Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 18z GFS has 925mb temps still at 5°C at 4am for DC. They drop 11° over the next 3 hours...But not great.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 19 minutes ago, BTRWx said: Wow! LWX Max potential went way up... They are based on the 12z runs... and not the 18z crap that is coming in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ErinInTheSky Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 Temps dropping fast in my part of Gaithersburg. 58 degrees now. I pegged 53 by 8 to meet the Euro's expectations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 1 minute ago, RidingTheModelWithMostSnow said: Wait until the 0z suite comes out and it has shift another 50 miles north. I don't think that will happen. I expect it to be pretty much the same, since the 18z GFS "knows" about the warmer temps from this afternoon, so 0z shouldn't be too different. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 1 minute ago, RidingTheModelWithMostSnow said: They are based on the 12z runs... and not the 18z crap that is coming in Yup Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 53/41Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kleimax Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 This is by far the most aggressive map I've seen. Any thoughts on this lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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