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February 8-9 Short range disco and Obs - STORM MODE


stormtracker

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5 minutes ago, NovaTarHeel said:

Will those streamers up near the WV/MD/VA border make it all the way to DC and the burbs, or is it a mountain special?  I'd like to at least see a snow shower or two. 

Atmosphere is pretty unstable in the wake of the low. There should be scattered snow showers around most of the region through the afternoon. Someone might get lucky with a streamer. 

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11 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

The big problem was the system developed slower. Less amped means more progressive and precip was weaker and moved out faster. Less moisturetransport into cold side. It busted up in pa top. My in laws were expecting 6-12 and got 3.5". Lots of 3-4" totals in places expecting 8-10"

Yup, the 18Z runs cutting back on QPF--- way back in the case of the GFS-- was what made me think it was going to be a minimal event. 

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40 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

Elevation meant nothing. Latitude did. I am over 1000 feet and got bupkis. Although it is snowing lightly now.

I wouldn't say it meant nothing considering Frederick and Mt. Airy are basically at the same latitude, but there's about a 500ft elevation difference.  Frederick was bare in the CHART cams and Mt. Airy had a coating that covered the top of the grass.  I should have said in the Balt-DC metro area, elevation made a difference.

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Some observations on the road this morning.  Driving south on Rt. 27 from Westminster I found the snow/no snow line to be on the south side of Damascus.  I also think Damascus may be the southern extent of Parr's Ridge.  A few miles later, approaching I-270 interchange not a crusty patch to be found.   But for decent blowing and drifting you have to be north of Mt. Airy today basically.   It was fun seeing the curtains of snow sweep across the road today.  I am currently holding steady at home at 27 which is rather impressive too.

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25 minutes ago, Sparky said:

Some observations on the road this morning.  Driving south on Rt. 27 from Westminster I found the snow/no snow line to be on the south side of Damascus.  I also think Damascus may be the southern extent of Parr's Ridge.  A few miles later, approaching I-270 interchange not a crusty patch to be found.   But for decent blowing and drifting you have to be north of Mt. Airy today basically.   It was fun seeing the curtains of snow sweep across the road today.  I am currently holding steady at home at 27 which is rather impressive too.

Clarksburg is effectively the SW extent of Parr's Ridge.  If you turn right at 27 & 355 heading NW, you go up 200' (to 710') over the next few miles as you make your way into Clarksburg.  Had a coating of snow at the house this morning and, as I went south, the ground was bare (in north Germantown) in the first 5 minutes driving.

IMG_0856.JPG

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52 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

We really do need a post storm analysis to figure out not only which model performed the best, but also sniffed out trends.

From the midrange in, the GFS did the best imo. It was consistently warmer and on the NW side of guidance. It was also the driest until it caved late IIRC. 

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1 minute ago, Bob Chill said:

From the midrange in, the GFS did the best imo. It was consistently warmer and on the NW side of guidance. It was also the driest until it caved late IIRC. 

I think I can agree with this.  Honestly, this was why I was never 100% into this one, even tho the Euro was looking good for us for a while. 

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17 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

I think I can agree with this.  Honestly, this was why I was never 100% into this one, even tho the Euro was looking good for us for a while. 

Hindsight makes things easy but I felt this way 2 days in front of the storm. 2 important factors with this storm are almost a guaranteed problem every single time. Needing the cold to bleed in right at game time versus being in place is a standard red flag. The other one was that we were right at ground zero for rapid development. The vast majority of times it develops too late. So with those 2 things in mind, the storm played out exactly as it should have regardless of what models were giving false hope. 

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So far HRRR has been the best once we get within 5-10 hours. Euro and RGEM have been an absolute joke this winter.

At this point I'm not sure if I should even take the euro seriously.

Edit: I mean the euro has been awful in the mid-range, and RGEM has been awful in mid-short and short range. The HRRR has been great in the very short range.


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