Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,606
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    ArlyDude
    Newest Member
    ArlyDude
    Joined

February 8-9 Short range disco and Obs - STORM MODE


stormtracker

Recommended Posts

15 minutes ago, BaltimoreWxGuy said:

01z HRRR cut back slightly but pretty darn close to last run.

Cut back from what?  Lol. Sorry to be pessimistic but it's been slowly bleeding away our snow totals all evening run by run.  this feels like early feb 2014 only that storm Baltimore area was on the edge expecting 3-6" the day before and it was up here that ended up the southern edge. This time it's shifting from up here into pa. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • Replies 571
  • Created
  • Last Reply
1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

Cut back from what?  Lol. Sorry to be pessimistic but it's been slowly bleeding away our snow totals all evening run by run.  this feels like early feb 2014 only that storm Baltimore area was on the edge expecting 3-6" the day before and it was up here that ended up the southern edge. This time it's shifting from up here into pa. 

Lol...Just meant for DC specifically, the half inch line went north:lol:

Link to comment
Share on other sites

5 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Haha, maybe he lived here at one point, idk. 

My bar initially was 2". I think it's unlikely I get that but if we can get a few hours of SN+ similar to that miracle we pulled off after an awful bust for the last event, I'll have enough strength to carry on. 

I'm feeling like we get a decent backend surprise, maybe even twice. 

Unlike your Fraud Five, there are two things we do well here. 

1. Backbuilding 

2. Deform bands

I think we have a chance for both, and that along with snow showers/squalls means an 1"  or so might be possible, just not with the main shebang. 

NOTE: : i have a bad headache and barely know what I'm talking about 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

8 minutes ago, BaltimoreWxGuy said:

Lol...Just meant for DC specifically, the half inch line went north:lol:

It's doing it up here too. Slowly creeping north run after run. Bleeding a half inch here or there.  If it doesn't stop we're gonna end up with the 1-2" on the back edge you were rooting for down there. My hope is extreme rates overcome. Given the look of radar I have a hard time buying the dryer runs for some reason. Certainly looks juiced to me. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

I think because it's been a slow bleed over several runs the fairly dramatic north shift has been less noticed. But comparing 3 runs ago to now makes it pop out. 

IMG_0584.PNG

IMG_0585.PNG

Look at the trajectory of the rain-snow line, current slp, and 3-hour pressure tendencies map linked below.  If the pressure falls map is to be believed, it looks like it comes right over us.

http://weather.unisys.com/radar/hires_rad.php?image=rad&inv=0&t=l3&region=us

sfc_con_pres.gif

sfc_con_3pres.gif

Link to comment
Share on other sites

4 minutes ago, BaltimoreWxGuy said:

Yeah, but predictable. This isnt a set up that works well....now we just see what happens for sure.

Yeah was pretty sure of this yesterday but I wasn't going to troll people near the MD line and say it.    I'm glad most board mets and LWX never bit and threw in a WSW.  They'd be going nuts now. How about them squalls?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

To me, the GFS depicts the system as delayed and split into two pieces.

It seems that AM accumulating snow may be from 11Z to 15Z and then with squalls

from 21Z to 23Z.

So yeah, it doesn't look to be a positive bust but most of us should see something snowy.

Interestingly, both rush hours could be affected but with the mid-day relatively quiet.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...