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Please post your observations, and other data for the Coastal Crusher Feb 9th 2017 here - Thanks!

WeatherFox

By WeatherFox,
in New York City Metro

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UlsterCountySnowZ

UlsterCountySnowZ

Posted
Posted
7 minutes ago, EasternLI said:

Don't the kuchera maps only take into account temps of the column to determine ratios? I believe forky mentioned that. You would also need to look at lift in the DGZ, which I don't think is accounted for in that method. Also, wind, high winds will smash any good ratios into oblivion.

Correct, which is why the map worked in some spots... and not others(coast) 

 

had nothing to to do with the euro.. the GFS kuchera was just as F'ed up the night before 

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NorthShoreWx

NorthShoreWx

Posted
Posted

I melted the snow in the 4" COCORAHS gauge and it was 0.93" liquid.  That's more than I would have thought, but presumably the actual precip would be a fair amount more than that.  Very surprised to see that much caught in the gauge in that windstorm.  Confirms my suspicion that ratios were poor.  Most of the snowflakes, even during the 3"/hour rates weren't that great, at least not big fluffy dendrites.  Possibly they started out that way before the wind had it's way with them.

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e46and2

e46and2

Posted
Posted

this is from commack about 4 miles north of the LIE near kings park.  i didn't measure but my gut tells me it was over a foot.  hardly scientific and semantics at this point.  also, side roads were still horrible this evening especially in the deer park area.  like driving on uneven cement.

 

 

IMG_20170209_131433.jpg

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Allsnow

Allsnow

Posted
Posted
3 hours ago, winterwx21 said:

As Allsnow said, the upper atmosphere was too cold on the Euro and that's why the Euro Kuchera ratio printed out too much snow. The Euro did indeed overestimate snow ratios. What I was talking about had nothing to do with weenies cherry picking maps. I completely agree that we shouldn't have been going on the Euro Kuchera map since it was obviously overdone, but that doesn't excuse the Euro model for being too cold.  The NAM and other models were not as cold and printed out more reasonable amounts on the Kuchera maps. I'm not sure why people like to blame the Kuchera method. It works IF the model is right about upper atmosphere temps and things that determine ratios. The Euro messed up on ratios in this case while most other models didn't. The HRRR Kuchera maps were on the money. 

Yeah I'm not sure why people don't understand this. The kuchera maps take in account the temps and upper atmosphere of the models. The euro ended up being to cold and wet in nj. The rest of the models nam,gfs,rgem didn't have 12-16 for north jersey. 

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Allsnow

Allsnow

Posted
Posted
2 hours ago, EasternLI said:

Don't the kuchera maps only take into account temps of the column to determine ratios? I believe forky mentioned that. You would also need to look at lift in the DGZ, which I don't think is accounted for in that method. Also, wind, high winds will smash any good ratios into oblivion.

Yes. And good point on the wind that killed ratios also. 

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psv88

psv88

Posted
Posted
34 minutes ago, e46and2 said:

this is from commack about 4 miles north of the LIE near kings park.  i didn't measure but my gut tells me it was over a foot.  hardly scientific and semantics at this point.  also, side roads were still horrible this evening especially in the deer park area.  like driving on uneven cement.

 

 

IMG_20170209_131433.jpg

Hey neighbor! I'm in Commack at the corner of Commack road and Jericho. Roads are still awful. Measured 13.5", nearly identical to the trained spotters reports in the area. 

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UlsterCountySnowZ

UlsterCountySnowZ

Posted
Posted
24 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Yeah I'm not sure why people don't understand this. The kuchera maps take in account the temps and upper atmosphere of the models. The euro ended up being to cold and wet in nj. The rest of the models nam,gfs,rgem didn't have 12-16 for north jersey. 

Not to beat a dead horse... but kuchera GFS did have totals similar to euro, with the exception of 20+ on Long Island....it was the kuchera... not the model imo... 

IMG_1732.PNG

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IrishRob17

IrishRob17

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, NorthShoreWx said:

I melted the snow in the 4" COCORAHS gauge and it was 0.93" liquid.  That's more than I would have thought, but presumably the actual precip would be a fair amount more than that.  Very surprised to see that much caught in the gauge in that windstorm.  Confirms my suspicion that ratios were poor.  Most of the snowflakes, even during the 3"/hour rates weren't that great, at least not big fluffy dendrites.  Possibly they started out that way before the wind had it's way with them.

You got better ratios than I did, I melted mine in the same gauge and got exactly 1.00" on 10.3" of snow. While that 10.3" may be a inch or two less than what some reports around me showed it was darn close to my two snow stakes in different parts of my yard. 

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NorthShoreWx

NorthShoreWx

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, e46and2 said:

this is from commack about 4 miles north of the LIE near kings park.  i didn't measure but my gut tells me it was over a foot.  hardly scientific and semantics at this point.  also, side roads were still horrible this evening especially in the deer park area.  like driving on uneven cement.

 

 

IMG_20170209_131433.jpg

Looks like easily more than a foot to me.  It also looks like it is probably too close to the house.

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NorthShoreWx

NorthShoreWx

Posted
Posted
27 minutes ago, IrishRob17 said:

You got better ratios than I did, I melted mine in the same gauge and got exactly 1.00" on 10.3" of snow. While that 10.3" may be a inch or two less than what some reports around me showed it was darn close to my two snow stakes in different parts of my yard. 

I'll let you know the final ratios when the core I took tonight finishes melting.  I am anticipating considerably more than from the gage.   It was way too windy here to rely on the gage.

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psv88

psv88

Posted
Posted
8 minutes ago, NorthShoreWx said:

Nope, that wasn't mine.  I am always below everyone else when it is windy.

I found a good even and open measuring spot at the new house finally. The numbers match up well to the trained spotters in nearby towns and ISP. I do find I am often a few inches below ISP for coastals. 

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jm1220

jm1220

Posted
Posted
2 hours ago, NorthShoreWx said:

I melted the snow in the 4" COCORAHS gauge and it was 0.93" liquid.  That's more than I would have thought, but presumably the actual precip would be a fair amount more than that.  Very surprised to see that much caught in the gauge in that windstorm.  Confirms my suspicion that ratios were poor.  Most of the snowflakes, even during the 3"/hour rates weren't that great, at least not big fluffy dendrites.  Possibly they started out that way before the wind had it's way with them.

I mostly had flakes like sand grains here, which are 10-1 if not lower. When the snow was lighter, it wasn't piling up much or at all, it was just compressing. 

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LongBeachSurfFreak

LongBeachSurfFreak

Posted
Posted
10 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

I mostly had flakes like sand grains here, which are 10-1 if not lower. When the snow was lighter, it wasn't piling up much or at all, it was just compressing. 

My issue with Long Beach and measuring is the wind. I'm sure bluewave saw it too during his lb days. A good example is Boxing Day vs the jan 17th storm. During Boxing Day it was easy to find well over 20"s in my yard but during jan not even close despite final totals really all that much less. You have roof blow off and of course drifting. It's just such a huge problem when measuring during a windy storm on a barrier island. I'm sure you had a ton of that yesterday. Even in wantagh the drifting was pretty epic. I would say on par with any of the bigger blizzards the last few years 

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jm1220

jm1220

Posted
Posted
17 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

My issue with Long Beach and measuring is the wind. I'm sure bluewave saw it too during his lb days. A good example is Boxing Day vs the jan 17th storm. During Boxing Day it was easy to find well over 20"s in my yard but during jan not even close despite final totals really all that much less. You have roof blow off and of course drifting. It's just such a huge problem when measuring during a windy storm on a barrier island. I'm sure you had a ton of that yesterday. Even in wantagh the drifting was pretty epic. I would say on par with any of the bigger blizzards the last few years 

It was likely a verified blizzard here, especially later in the storm the winds were gusting big time. Visibility for a good couple of hours was to the end of my block. It was tough to measure-I measured in my backyard which is sheltered somewhat but  has the same issue with roof blowoff as anywhere else. My front yard ranged between grass showing and over a foot. Northeast facing lawns on an angle were blown almost dry in some cases. 

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LongBeachSurfFreak

LongBeachSurfFreak

Posted
Posted
49 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

It was likely a verified blizzard here, especially later in the storm the winds were gusting big time. Visibility for a good couple of hours was to the end of my block. It was tough to measure-I measured in my backyard which is sheltered somewhat but  has the same issue with roof blowoff as anywhere else. My front yard ranged between grass showing and over a foot. Northeast facing lawns on an angle were blown almost dry in some cases. 

For sure it was a blizzard on the island. It was at times in the city. What I did notice today was s big loss of snow to sleet. We had straight snow in Manhattan. Not so here in wantagh. I was watching the radar early on and when that super heavy return area went by the south shore it looked like bright banding extended to about sunrise highway. So I went with 11" in south wantagh. Despite being on the same longitude of higher numbers to north like 14" in Hicksville 

" 

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NorthShoreWx

NorthShoreWx

Posted
Posted

So I melted 0.93" in the rain gage, then melted 1.54" in a core sample from the area where I measured 12".  One sounds low and one sounds high.  I am tempted to split the difference, but I think the higher number might be right.  FWIW, we did have snow over a period of 2 or 3 hours that didn't add to snow depth that probably would have been 2 or 3 inches on a board based on the visibility .  I don't doubt this would measure out as 15" if wiping a board.  On the other hand, I see the rationale in not coming up with 15" or even more as a total when the snow depth barely reached 12".

 

Now what could inflate the SWE of the core sample from an untrammeled area with representative snow depth?

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jm1220

jm1220

Posted
Posted
40 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

For sure it was a blizzard on the island. It was at times in the city. What I did notice today was s big loss of snow to sleet. We had straight snow in Manhattan. Not so here in wantagh. I was watching the radar early on and when that super heavy return area went by the south shore it looked like bright banding extended to about sunrise highway. So I went with 11" in south wantagh. Despite being on the same longitude of higher numbers to north like 14" in Hicksville 

" 

I woke up at 6:30am and it was snowing hard here and maybe 1" on the ground. I watched the dual pol radar evolution and it looked to be all snow by 5:30-6am latest. I don't think I lost a lot to rain or sleet. 

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Amped

Amped

Posted
Posted
9 hours ago, psv88 said:

Blizzard conditions met across Long Island. It was a true blizzard! 


A BLIZZARD OCCURRED OVER PORTIONS OF LONG ISLAND...SOUTHERN
CONNECTICUT AND COASTAL PORTIONS OF THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY ON
FEBRUARY 9 2017...FROM AFTER SUNRISE INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS.

THE DEFINITION OF A BLIZZARD:
 - SUSTAINED WINDS OR FREQUENT GUSTS GREATER THAN OR EQUAL TO 35
   MPH
 - CONSIDERABLE FALLING AND/OR BLOWING SNOW
 - VISIBILITY FREQUENTLY REDUCED TO LESS THAN 1/4 MILE
 - OCCURS FOR THREE HOURS OR MORE

WHEN REVIEWING WHETHER A PARTICULAR OBSERVATION LOCATION HAD
BLIZZARD CONDITIONS...VISIBILITIES EQUAL TO 1/4 MILE WERE
COUNTED. THIS IS BECAUSE THESE ARE QUITE LOW FOR AN AUTOMATED
VISIBILITY SENSOR TO DETECT.

AT LONG ISLAND MACARTHUR AIRPORT (ISLIP NY)...BLIZZARD CRITERIA
WAS MET FOR 7 HOURS AMD 23 MINUTES...FROM 822 AM TO 218 PM AND
FROM 256 PM TO 423 PM.

AT CHESTER AIRPORT (CHESTER CT)...BLIZZARD CRITERIA WAS MET FOR 4
HOURS AND 40 MINUTES FROM 1015 AM TO 255 PM.

AT IGOR I SIKORSKY MEMORIAL AIRPORT (BRIDGEPORT CT)...BLIZZARD
CRITERIA WAS MET FOR 4 HOURS 21 MINUTES...FROM 852 AM TO 113 PM.

AT WATERBURY-OXFORD AIRPORT (OXFORD CT)...BLIZZARD CRITERIA WAS
MET FOR 3 HOURS FROM 850 AM TO 1050 AM AND FROM 1250 PM TO 150 PM.

AT WEST CHESTER COUNTY AIRPORT (WHITE PLAINS NY)...BLIZZARD
CRITERIA WAS MET FOR 3 HOURS...FROM 9:56 AM TO 1256 PM.

IT ALSO WAS DETERMINED THAT A BLIZZARD ALSO OCCURRED AT
FARMINGDALE NY...NEW HAVEN CT...WESTHAMPTON BEACH NY AND GROTON
CT.

AT REPUBLIC AIRPORT (FARMINGDALE NY)...BLIZZARD CRITERIA WAS MET
FOR 6 HOURS AND 38 MINUTES FROM 733 AM TO 211 PM. THE PRESENT
WEATHER SENSOR FAILED AT 915 AM (SNOW VERIFIED BY RADAR).

AT TWEED NEW HAVEN AIRPORT (NEW HAVEN CT)...BLIZZARD CRITERIA WAS
MET FOR 5 HOURS 36 MINUTES FROM 853 AM TO 129 PM. THE PRESENT
WEATHER SENSOR FAILED FROM 1137 AM TO 1228 PM (SNOW VERIFIED BY
RADAR).

AT FRANCIS S GABRESKI AIRPORT (WESTHAMPTON BEACH NY)...BLIZZARD
CRITERIA WAS MET FOR 5 HOURS AND 29 MINUTES FROM 953 AM TO 244 PM
AND FROM 317 PM TO 353 PM. THE PRESENT WEATHER SENSOR DID NOT
OPERATE DURING THIS TIME FRAME (SNOW VERIFIED BY RADAR).

AT GROTON-NEW LONDON AIRPORT (GROTON CT)...BLIZZARD CRITERIA WAS
MET FOR 4 HOURS AND 23 MINUTES FROM 1030 AM TO 253 PM. THE PRESENT
WEATHER SENSOR FAILED AT 1044 AM (SNOW VERIFIED BY RADAR).

IT IS POSSIBLE THAT BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ALSO OCCURRED AT EAST
HAMPTON NY...BUT FAILURE OF THE VISIBILITY...WIND AND PRESENT
WEATHER SENSORS DURING THE EVENT REQUIRE ADDITIONAL INFORMATION
TO VERIFY.

ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE TRI-STATE...NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS OCCURRED
AT SOUTH OZONE PARK NY...EAST ELMHURST NY...NEWARK NJ...
TETERBORO NJ AND MERIDEN CT. AT SOUTH OZONE PARK NEW YORK (JOHN F
KENNEDY INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT) BLIZZARD CONDITIONS OCCURRED FOR
37 MINUTES...OTHERWISE GUSTS WERE SUFFICIENT...BUT VISIBILITIES
WERE FREQUENTLY AROUND 1/2 MILE. AT EAST ELMHURST NY (LA GUARDIA
AIRPORT)...NEWARK NJ (NEWARK LIBERTY INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT)...
TETERBORO NJ (TETERBORO AIRPORT) AND MERIDEN CT (MERIDEN MARKHAM
MUNICIPAL AIRPORT) VISIBILITIES WERE SUFFICIENTLY LOW...BUT
FREQUENT GUSTS WERE BELOW 35 MPH DURING THE TIME VISIBILITIES
WERE LOW.

$$

So Upton admits it should have gone blizzard warning For Fairfield and Westchester? Actually one of the few times HPN met blizzard criteria.

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