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Please post your observations, and other data for the Coastal Crusher Feb 9th 2017 here - Thanks!

WeatherFox

By WeatherFox,
in New York City Metro

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bluewave

bluewave

Posted
Posted
5 minutes ago, winterwx21 said:

But why then did the other models when factoring in Kuchera ratio not show amounts much higher than 10:1? Like I said the HRRR Kuchera maps and 10:1 maps printed out almost the same amount of snow. It was only the Euro Kuchera ratio maps that were showing much higher than 10:1. That led me to believe that it was the Euro model itself that was overestimating snow ratios. If it was just a flawed Kuchera method then I would think the other models would show inflated totals as well. Maybe I'm completely wrong about this, but it's what I assumed. So if I'm wrong I'd like to know why the Euro Kuchera snow maps were way off the but the Kuchera maps for the other models were not. 

I think Ryan added to the site as an experimental forecast tool for consideration when the soundings were cold enough to justify higher ratios like the early January

event the 13-14 and 14-15 winter events. That is not an official ECMWF forecast. It's up to the forecaster to evaluate the actual soundings and decide which

ratio maps to use. Better to look at Euro QPF and the 10:1 maps and decide whether the soundings justify higher ratios or not.

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winterwx21

winterwx21

Posted
Posted
5 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

The Euro didn't overestimate snow ratios. Weenies were cherry picking snow maps to post-most or all knowledgeable posters and mets said to throw the high ratio stuff away. If you looked on Eurowx or adjusted to the 10-1 ratio or less which is what happened, the totals were much better. 

I never believed those high ratios. It was pretty clear that this would be closer to a 10:1 event. I was just wondering why it was ONLY the Euro Kuchera ratio snow map that was going much higher, and not the other models. The Kuchera ratio maps for the other models were printing out about the same amount of snow as the 10:1 maps. That's why I wondered if it was the Euro itself that was overestimating ratios. 

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winterwx21

winterwx21

Posted
Posted
7 minutes ago, bluewave said:

I think Ryan added to the site as an experimental forecast tool for consideration when the soundings were cold enough to justify higher ratios like the early January

event the 13-14 and 14-15 winter events. That is not an official ECMWF forecast. It's up to the forecaster to evaluate the actual soundings and decide which

ratio maps to use. Better to look at Euro QPF and the 10:1 maps and decide whether the soundings justify higher ratios or not.

Thanks for the explanation. 

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psv88

psv88

Posted
Posted
45 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

same here alot of frozen gunk on the roads with big ruts-I think it was because of the warm ground after the 65 degree day-the first inch turned into an impermiable layer of ice.

That makes sense.

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UlsterCountySnowZ

UlsterCountySnowZ

Posted
Posted
17 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Sure. He may want to take them down if they get so much attention on these forums and the social media when it isn't warranted.

Problem is it all depends on location... kuchera map that spit out 00z the night of the storm, really nailed totals up here...there was a clear geographical line where ratios fell well below what kuchera was showing... and using the kuchera as a uniform ratio tool for all areas is probably not s good idea I agree

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Allsnow

Allsnow

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, bluewave said:

I think Ryan added to the site as an experimental forecast tool for consideration when the soundings were cold enough to justify higher ratios like the early January

event the 13-14 and 14-15 winter events. That is not an official ECMWF forecast. It's up to the forecaster to evaluate the actual soundings and decide which

ratio maps to use. Better to look at Euro QPF and the 10:1 maps and decide whether the soundings justify higher ratios or not.

So the kuchera maps work for the other models but not the euro? I would think the euro was just to cold for yesterday morning 

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psv88

psv88

Posted
Posted

Blizzard conditions met across Long Island. It was a true blizzard! 

A BLIZZARD OCCURRED OVER PORTIONS OF LONG ISLAND...SOUTHERN
CONNECTICUT AND COASTAL PORTIONS OF THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY ON
FEBRUARY 9 2017...FROM AFTER SUNRISE INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS.

THE DEFINITION OF A BLIZZARD:
 - SUSTAINED WINDS OR FREQUENT GUSTS GREATER THAN OR EQUAL TO 35
   MPH
 - CONSIDERABLE FALLING AND/OR BLOWING SNOW
 - VISIBILITY FREQUENTLY REDUCED TO LESS THAN 1/4 MILE
 - OCCURS FOR THREE HOURS OR MORE

WHEN REVIEWING WHETHER A PARTICULAR OBSERVATION LOCATION HAD
BLIZZARD CONDITIONS...VISIBILITIES EQUAL TO 1/4 MILE WERE
COUNTED. THIS IS BECAUSE THESE ARE QUITE LOW FOR AN AUTOMATED
VISIBILITY SENSOR TO DETECT.

AT LONG ISLAND MACARTHUR AIRPORT (ISLIP NY)...BLIZZARD CRITERIA
WAS MET FOR 7 HOURS AMD 23 MINUTES...FROM 822 AM TO 218 PM AND
FROM 256 PM TO 423 PM.

AT CHESTER AIRPORT (CHESTER CT)...BLIZZARD CRITERIA WAS MET FOR 4
HOURS AND 40 MINUTES FROM 1015 AM TO 255 PM.

AT IGOR I SIKORSKY MEMORIAL AIRPORT (BRIDGEPORT CT)...BLIZZARD
CRITERIA WAS MET FOR 4 HOURS 21 MINUTES...FROM 852 AM TO 113 PM.

AT WATERBURY-OXFORD AIRPORT (OXFORD CT)...BLIZZARD CRITERIA WAS
MET FOR 3 HOURS FROM 850 AM TO 1050 AM AND FROM 1250 PM TO 150 PM.

AT WEST CHESTER COUNTY AIRPORT (WHITE PLAINS NY)...BLIZZARD
CRITERIA WAS MET FOR 3 HOURS...FROM 9:56 AM TO 1256 PM.

IT ALSO WAS DETERMINED THAT A BLIZZARD ALSO OCCURRED AT
FARMINGDALE NY...NEW HAVEN CT...WESTHAMPTON BEACH NY AND GROTON
CT.

AT REPUBLIC AIRPORT (FARMINGDALE NY)...BLIZZARD CRITERIA WAS MET
FOR 6 HOURS AND 38 MINUTES FROM 733 AM TO 211 PM. THE PRESENT
WEATHER SENSOR FAILED AT 915 AM (SNOW VERIFIED BY RADAR).

AT TWEED NEW HAVEN AIRPORT (NEW HAVEN CT)...BLIZZARD CRITERIA WAS
MET FOR 5 HOURS 36 MINUTES FROM 853 AM TO 129 PM. THE PRESENT
WEATHER SENSOR FAILED FROM 1137 AM TO 1228 PM (SNOW VERIFIED BY
RADAR).

AT FRANCIS S GABRESKI AIRPORT (WESTHAMPTON BEACH NY)...BLIZZARD
CRITERIA WAS MET FOR 5 HOURS AND 29 MINUTES FROM 953 AM TO 244 PM
AND FROM 317 PM TO 353 PM. THE PRESENT WEATHER SENSOR DID NOT
OPERATE DURING THIS TIME FRAME (SNOW VERIFIED BY RADAR).

AT GROTON-NEW LONDON AIRPORT (GROTON CT)...BLIZZARD CRITERIA WAS
MET FOR 4 HOURS AND 23 MINUTES FROM 1030 AM TO 253 PM. THE PRESENT
WEATHER SENSOR FAILED AT 1044 AM (SNOW VERIFIED BY RADAR).

IT IS POSSIBLE THAT BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ALSO OCCURRED AT EAST
HAMPTON NY...BUT FAILURE OF THE VISIBILITY...WIND AND PRESENT
WEATHER SENSORS DURING THE EVENT REQUIRE ADDITIONAL INFORMATION
TO VERIFY.

ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE TRI-STATE...NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS OCCURRED
AT SOUTH OZONE PARK NY...EAST ELMHURST NY...NEWARK NJ...
TETERBORO NJ AND MERIDEN CT. AT SOUTH OZONE PARK NEW YORK (JOHN F
KENNEDY INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT) BLIZZARD CONDITIONS OCCURRED FOR
37 MINUTES...OTHERWISE GUSTS WERE SUFFICIENT...BUT VISIBILITIES
WERE FREQUENTLY AROUND 1/2 MILE. AT EAST ELMHURST NY (LA GUARDIA
AIRPORT)...NEWARK NJ (NEWARK LIBERTY INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT)...
TETERBORO NJ (TETERBORO AIRPORT) AND MERIDEN CT (MERIDEN MARKHAM
MUNICIPAL AIRPORT) VISIBILITIES WERE SUFFICIENTLY LOW...BUT
FREQUENT GUSTS WERE BELOW 35 MPH DURING THE TIME VISIBILITIES
WERE LOW.

$$
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winterwx21

winterwx21

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

So the kuchera maps work for the other models but not the euro? I would think the euro was just to cold for yesterday morning 

I assumed the same thing. It seemed like the Euro was showing colder temps and conditions that were more favorable for higher snow ratios, and that's why the Euro Kuchera maps were printing out higher ratios while the Kuchera maps for other models were not. But knowledgable people here say it has nothing to do with the Euro model itself. I'm still a bit confused. 

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Allsnow

Allsnow

Posted
Posted
6 minutes ago, winterwx21 said:

I assumed the same thing. It seemed like the Euro was showing colder temps and conditions that were more favorable for higher snow ratios, and that's why the Euro Kuchera maps were printing out higher ratios while the Kuchera maps for other models were not. But knowledgable people here say it has nothing to do with the Euro model itself. I'm still a bit confused. 

Yeah the question was not answered. The kuchera maps go off soundings of the models.  The upper atmosphere of the euro was too cold. 

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winterwx21

winterwx21

Posted
Posted
6 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Yeah the question was not answered. The kuchera maps go off soundings of the models.  The upper atmosphere of the euro was too cold. 

Yeah that's what I thought. I still think it was the Euro model itself being too cold and overestimating snow ratios. If it was just the Kuchera method being so flawed and overestimating, then the other models like HRRR and NAM would have also been showing much higher totals on the Kuchera maps. I completely agree with the idea of not falling for what the Euro Kuchera map was showing, since most of the evidence was pointing to lower ratios. But that doesn't change the fact that the Euro model itself screwed up in being too cold for our area. 

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psv88

psv88

Posted
Posted
Just now, Allsnow said:

Jackpot this storm was definitely Long Island 

 

congrats 

JP was Northern CT and Central and Western Mass. 

I am just glad the blizzard warning verified, that is very rare. Very tough for anyone in NJ, PA, etc to get a blizzard warning to verify due to the wind requirement, away from the coast its much harder. 

I am good for the season, hope you guys cash in next!

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Allsnow

Allsnow

Posted
Posted
6 minutes ago, psv88 said:

JP was Northern CT and Central and Western Mass. 

I am just glad the blizzard warning verified, that is very rare. Very tough for anyone in NJ, PA, etc to get a blizzard warning to verify due to the wind requirement, away from the coast its much harder. 

I am good for the season, hope you guys cash in next!

Models did great with the heavy band over Long Island. Wish I was there for this past storm. Best spot in the metro 

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NorthShoreWx

NorthShoreWx

Posted
Posted
36 minutes ago, psv88 said:

Blizzard conditions met across Long Island. It was a true blizzard! 


A BLIZZARD OCCURRED OVER PORTIONS OF LONG ISLAND...SOUTHERN
CONNECTICUT AND COASTAL PORTIONS OF THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY ON
FEBRUARY 9 2017...FROM AFTER SUNRISE INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS.

THE DEFINITION OF A BLIZZARD:
 - SUSTAINED WINDS OR FREQUENT GUSTS GREATER THAN OR EQUAL TO 35
   MPH
 - CONSIDERABLE FALLING AND/OR BLOWING SNOW
 - VISIBILITY FREQUENTLY REDUCED TO LESS THAN 1/4 MILE
 - OCCURS FOR THREE HOURS OR MORE

WHEN REVIEWING WHETHER A PARTICULAR OBSERVATION LOCATION HAD
BLIZZARD CONDITIONS...VISIBILITIES EQUAL TO 1/4 MILE WERE
COUNTED. THIS IS BECAUSE THESE ARE QUITE LOW FOR AN AUTOMATED
VISIBILITY SENSOR TO DETECT.

AT LONG ISLAND MACARTHUR AIRPORT (ISLIP NY)...BLIZZARD CRITERIA
WAS MET FOR 7 HOURS AMD 23 MINUTES...FROM 822 AM TO 218 PM AND
FROM 256 PM TO 423 PM.

AT CHESTER AIRPORT (CHESTER CT)...BLIZZARD CRITERIA WAS MET FOR 4
HOURS AND 40 MINUTES FROM 1015 AM TO 255 PM.

AT IGOR I SIKORSKY MEMORIAL AIRPORT (BRIDGEPORT CT)...BLIZZARD
CRITERIA WAS MET FOR 4 HOURS 21 MINUTES...FROM 852 AM TO 113 PM.

AT WATERBURY-OXFORD AIRPORT (OXFORD CT)...BLIZZARD CRITERIA WAS
MET FOR 3 HOURS FROM 850 AM TO 1050 AM AND FROM 1250 PM TO 150 PM.

AT WEST CHESTER COUNTY AIRPORT (WHITE PLAINS NY)...BLIZZARD
CRITERIA WAS MET FOR 3 HOURS...FROM 9:56 AM TO 1256 PM.

IT ALSO WAS DETERMINED THAT A BLIZZARD ALSO OCCURRED AT
FARMINGDALE NY...NEW HAVEN CT...WESTHAMPTON BEACH NY AND GROTON
CT.

AT REPUBLIC AIRPORT (FARMINGDALE NY)...BLIZZARD CRITERIA WAS MET
FOR 6 HOURS AND 38 MINUTES FROM 733 AM TO 211 PM. THE PRESENT
WEATHER SENSOR FAILED AT 915 AM (SNOW VERIFIED BY RADAR).

AT TWEED NEW HAVEN AIRPORT (NEW HAVEN CT)...BLIZZARD CRITERIA WAS
MET FOR 5 HOURS 36 MINUTES FROM 853 AM TO 129 PM. THE PRESENT
WEATHER SENSOR FAILED FROM 1137 AM TO 1228 PM (SNOW VERIFIED BY
RADAR).

AT FRANCIS S GABRESKI AIRPORT (WESTHAMPTON BEACH NY)...BLIZZARD
CRITERIA WAS MET FOR 5 HOURS AND 29 MINUTES FROM 953 AM TO 244 PM
AND FROM 317 PM TO 353 PM. THE PRESENT WEATHER SENSOR DID NOT
OPERATE DURING THIS TIME FRAME (SNOW VERIFIED BY RADAR).

AT GROTON-NEW LONDON AIRPORT (GROTON CT)...BLIZZARD CRITERIA WAS
MET FOR 4 HOURS AND 23 MINUTES FROM 1030 AM TO 253 PM. THE PRESENT
WEATHER SENSOR FAILED AT 1044 AM (SNOW VERIFIED BY RADAR).

IT IS POSSIBLE THAT BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ALSO OCCURRED AT EAST
HAMPTON NY...BUT FAILURE OF THE VISIBILITY...WIND AND PRESENT
WEATHER SENSORS DURING THE EVENT REQUIRE ADDITIONAL INFORMATION
TO VERIFY.

ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE TRI-STATE...NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS OCCURRED
AT SOUTH OZONE PARK NY...EAST ELMHURST NY...NEWARK NJ...
TETERBORO NJ AND MERIDEN CT. AT SOUTH OZONE PARK NEW YORK (JOHN F
KENNEDY INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT) BLIZZARD CONDITIONS OCCURRED FOR
37 MINUTES...OTHERWISE GUSTS WERE SUFFICIENT...BUT VISIBILITIES
WERE FREQUENTLY AROUND 1/2 MILE. AT EAST ELMHURST NY (LA GUARDIA
AIRPORT)...NEWARK NJ (NEWARK LIBERTY INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT)...
TETERBORO NJ (TETERBORO AIRPORT) AND MERIDEN CT (MERIDEN MARKHAM
MUNICIPAL AIRPORT) VISIBILITIES WERE SUFFICIENTLY LOW...BUT
FREQUENT GUSTS WERE BELOW 35 MPH DURING THE TIME VISIBILITIES
WERE LOW.

$$

 

Looked like a blizzard to me:

 

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UlsterCountySnowZ

UlsterCountySnowZ

Posted
Posted
25 minutes ago, winterwx21 said:

Yeah that's what I thought. I still think it was the Euro model itself being too cold and overestimating snow ratios. If it was just the Kuchera method being so flawed and overestimating, then the other models like HRRR and NAM would have also been showing much higher totals on the Kuchera maps. I completely agree with the idea of not falling for what the Euro Kuchera map was showing, since most of the evidence was pointing to lower ratios. But that doesn't change the fact that the Euro model itself screwed up in being too cold for our area. 

The euro was too cold for those kuchera ratios at the coast... 

 

i had had mentioned this before the storm..doing the math.. with LE, then seeing what kuchera printed out... it was giving a uniform 16-17:1 ratio across the board.... while a lot of the interior (50+ miles from the coast) saw 15:1ratios... the coast unfortunately did not... that's where the euro/kuchera failed... 

 

kuchera printed  out 14" for my area the night before the storm.. it was spot on perfect, a lot of the interior kuchera maps verified nicely (or were atleast within a couple inches)

IMG_1757.PNG

 

I suppose using it for a uniform map when ratios could very so much in such a small location is it's biggest flaw... just like I'm sure kuchera works well for places far upstate.. as temp profiles aren't nearly in such high contrast within short distances as we are here

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psv88

psv88

Posted
Posted
12 minutes ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said:

The euro was too cold for those kuchera ratios at the coast... 

 

i had had mentioned this before the storm..doing the math.. with LE, then seeing what kuchera printed out... it was giving a uniform 16-17:1 ratio across the board.... while a lot of the interior (50+ miles from the coast) saw 15:1ratios... the coast unfortunately did not... that's where the euro/kuchera failed... 

 

kuchera printed  out 14" for my area the night before the storm.. it was spot on perfect, a lot of the interior kuchera maps verified nicely (or were atleast within a couple inches)

IMG_1757.PNG

 

I suppose using it for a uniform map when ratios could very so much in such a small location is it's biggest flaw... just like I'm sure kuchera works well for places far upstate.. as temp profiles aren't nearly in such high contrast within short distances as we are here

Euro was spot on for QPF tho

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winterwx21

winterwx21

Posted
Posted
2 hours ago, jm1220 said:

The Euro didn't overestimate snow ratios. Weenies were cherry picking snow maps to post-most or all knowledgeable posters and mets said to throw the high ratio stuff away. If you looked on Eurowx or adjusted to the 10-1 ratio or less which is what happened, the totals were much better. 

As Allsnow said, the upper atmosphere was too cold on the Euro and that's why the Euro Kuchera ratio printed out too much snow. The Euro did indeed overestimate snow ratios. What I was talking about had nothing to do with weenies cherry picking maps. I completely agree that we shouldn't have been going on the Euro Kuchera map since it was obviously overdone, but that doesn't excuse the Euro model for being too cold.  The NAM and other models were not as cold and printed out more reasonable amounts on the Kuchera maps. I'm not sure why people like to blame the Kuchera method. It works IF the model is right about upper atmosphere temps and things that determine ratios. The Euro messed up on ratios in this case while most other models didn't. The HRRR Kuchera maps were on the money. 

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psv88

psv88

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said:

Agreed, that's why im saying the kuchera method is flawed in an area where temp profiles are so drastic in such a small area (50miles)

I'm not sure about that. The most recent RGEM Kuchera method gave me 13.3 and i got 13.5, so it was dead on accurate. As JM said, it was an issue with the Euro itself

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Eduardo

Eduardo

Posted
Posted
58 minutes ago, psv88 said:

For Rjay: 


AT REPUBLIC AIRPORT (FARMINGDALE NY)...BLIZZARD CRITERIA WAS MET
FOR 6 HOURS AND 38 MINUTES FROM 733 AM TO 211 PM. THE PRESENT
WEATHER SENSOR FAILED AT 915 AM (SNOW VERIFIED BY RADAR).

Can verify in Lindenhurst as well.  Definitely one of the best snow/wind combinations I can remember around here in awhile.

 

Anyone have a link to wind reports?  There were definitely a few "house-shaking" gusts yesterday afternoon.

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psv88

psv88

Posted
Posted
Just now, Eduardo said:

Can verify in Lindenhurst as well.  Definitely one of the best snow/wind combinations I can remember around here in awhile.

 

Anyone have a link to wind reports?  There were definitely a few "house-shaking" gusts yesterday afternoon. 

***********************PEAK WIND GUST***********************

LOCATION             MAX WIND     TIME/DATE   COMMENTS
                        GUST            OF
                         MPH    MEASUREMENT

CONNECTICUT

...FAIRFIELD COUNTY...
   1 SSW STAMFORD          45  1250 PM  2/09  CWOP
   BRIDGEPORT AIRPORT      45   459 PM  2/09  ASOS
   STAMFORD                43   113 PM  2/09  CWOP
   2 ENE FAIRFIELD         42   217 PM  2/09  CWOP

...NEW HAVEN COUNTY...
   MERIDEN AIRPORT         45   316 PM  2/09  ASOS
   WATERBURY AIRPORT       45   250 PM  2/09  AWOS
   NEW HAVEN AIRPORT       43   407 PM  2/09  ASOS

...NEW LONDON COUNTY...
   4 ESE MYSTIC            54   116 PM  2/09  WXFLOW
   GROTON AIRPORT          54  1251 PM  2/09  ASOS
   1 NNE NEW LONDON        53   319 PM  2/09  WXFLOW
   3 NNW NIANTIC           43   431 PM  2/09  CWOP

NEW JERSEY

...BERGEN COUNTY...
   TETERBORO AIRPORT       45   434 PM  2/09  ASOS

...UNION COUNTY...
   NEWARK AIRPORT          47   451 PM  2/09  ASOS

NEW YORK

...ANZ345...
   1 NW OAK BEACH          43   124 PM  2/09  WXFLOW

...NASSAU COUNTY...
   OYSTER BAY              50  1241 PM  2/09  EMERGENCY MNGR
   2 NNE GLEN COVE         42   308 PM  2/09  WXFLOW

...ORANGE COUNTY...
   MONTGOMERY AIRPORT      40   432 PM  2/09  ASOS

...QUEENS COUNTY...
   NYC/JFK AIRPORT         45   453 PM  2/09  ASOS
   NYC/LA GUARDIA          44   207 PM  2/09  ASOS
   1 S JACKSON HEIGHTS     42   307 PM  2/09  CWOP
   2 WSW ROCKAWAY BEACH    41   239 PM  2/09  WXFLOW

...SUFFOLK COUNTY...
   4 NE CALVERTON          64   245 PM  2/09  CWOP
   2 W HITHER HILLS STA    59   127 PM  2/09  WXFLOW
   1 ENE MONTAUK HIGHWA    55   240 PM  2/09  WXFLOW
   1 SW MONTAUK            49   140 PM  2/09  CWOP
   ISLIP AIRPORT           48   147 PM  2/09  ASOS
   EATONS NECK             48   200 PM  2/09  WXFLOW
   1 S BLUE POINT          47   215 PM  2/09  WXFLOW
   3 SE HAMPTON BAYS       47   310 PM  2/09  WXFLOW
   FARMINGDALE AIRPORT     45   152 PM  2/09  ASOS
   WESTHAMPTON AIRPORT     44   327 PM  2/09  ASOS
   1 SSE EAST MORICHES     43   226 PM  2/09  WXFLOW
   2 WNW CAPTREE STATE     43   124 PM  2/09  WXFLOW
   ORIENT                  41   115 PM  2/09  CWOP
   2 WSW FISHERS ISLAND    40   335 PM  2/09  WXFLOW
   1 NNW MATTITUCK         40   539 PM  2/09  CWOP

...WESTCHESTER COUNTY...
   WHITE PLAINS AIRPORT    43  1246 PM  2/09  ASOS
   1 SSW OSSINING          43   428 PM  2/09  WXFLOW

http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=OKX&product=PNS&format=CI&version=10&glossary=1&highlight=off

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