Please post your observations, and other data for the Coastal Crusher Feb 9th 2017 here - Thanks!

[triniiphone]

Just measured 11.5. Light snow still falling 

[NortheastPAWx]

Snow may actually be picking up again a bit...

[ag3]

They have to measure depth. This snow compacts.

Remember that.

[Morris]

27/21 -SN in the park now. DP dropping.

[UlsterCountySnowZ]

I'm back to legit heavy snow... wow

[mikem81]

1 minute ago, ag3 said:

They have to measure depth. This snow compacts.

Remember that.

Maybe they had snow depth then of 9.6. The 9 inch mark at 10AM was legit since it was accompanied by 2 straight hours of 3 inch/hr rates

[nzucker]

9 minutes ago, Morris said:

when the forecast is 8-12, it can also be 8 once.... Looks like ratios were worse than 10:1... They have 1.16" LE

The deformation axis with the highest ratios was over New England, not NYC. You can see on the BOX radar the heavy band to the west over ORH beginning to merge with strong SE inflow from the Atlantic, developing a mature cold conveyor belt. A last-minute trend on models was the mid-levels developing later and the central pressure being higher than initially forecast.

This is why CNJ got 4-8" instead of 8-12", why NYC got 8-12" instead of the 16-20" printed out by the Euro, and why some feel it was a bust.

[SnowGoose69]

Just now, nzucker said:

The deformation axis with the highest ratios was over New England, not NYC. You can see on the BOX radar the heavy band to the west over ORH beginning to merge with strong SE inflow from the Atlantic, developing a mature cold conveyor belt. A last-minute trend on models was the mid-levels developing later and the central pressure being higher than initially forecast.

This is why CNJ got 4-8" instead of 8-12", why NYC got 8-12" instead of the 16-20" printed out by the Euro, and why some feel it was a bust.

The Euro numbers assumed a way better ratio than we had.  The LE on the 12Z Euro for LGA yesterday was around 1.02 or so. 

[Paragon]

1 minute ago, nzucker said:

The deformation axis with the highest ratios was over New England, not NYC. You can see on the BOX radar the heavy band to the west over ORH beginning to merge with strong SE inflow from the Atlantic, developing a mature cold conveyor belt. A last-minute trend on models was the mid-levels developing later and the central pressure being higher than initially forecast.

This is why CNJ got 4-8" instead of 8-12", why NYC got 8-12" instead of the 16-20" printed out by the Euro, and why some feel it was a bust.

This storm is moving too fast and the ratios are too low for anyone to get 20" out of this anyway.

[brooklynwx99]

Light snow @ 30 degrees.

[gravitylover]

Here's my important observation - Shoveling this stuff sucked! The lowest layer is glue due to very warm pavement from yesterdays near record temps.  My hands are fkn killing me and my back feels 30 years older than it is.  Anybody calling this storm a bust can come clean up the plow pile next time one comes by 

[gravitylover]

On a more serious note

SN+, Wind strong out of the NNW, Temp 22*, approx 12" otg - tough to measure due to significant blowing and drifting for the last 3 hours -

 

[SnowGoose69]

I haven't looked yet to see if it helps us here but evidently the new Euro has another major snow Sunday or Monday in New England for sure because Twitter is lighting up 

[nzucker]

1 minute ago, SnowGoose69 said:

The Euro numbers assumed a way better ratio than we had.  The LE on the 12Z Euro for LGA yesterday was around 1.02 or so. 

The liquid received of 1.0"-1.1" was not that much lower than forecast. Some models did have 1.25-1.5" QPF, but those were the outliers. How you get the QPF matters, though: deformation zones always have higher ratios than warm conveyor belts. Also, temps were slower to cool than expected, which wasted QPF.

1 minute ago, Paragon said:

This storm is moving too fast and the ratios are too low for anyone to get 20" out of this anyway.

Yes, this storm would have been epic with some blocking.

[ForestHillWx]

Ive been done snowing for over an hour, but looking east across the field it's dark. It must be the band in Morris you are all referencing. Too bad it isn't snowing for you. 

Interestingly the winds have really picked up. 

Finished shoveling my driveway and that snow was a lot heavier than I expected. I don't think the ratios were as good as I hoped for. 

All in all great storm. Cheers to those in the east for really cashing in. 

[Paragon]

Just now, nzucker said:

The liquid received of 1.0"-1.1" was not that much lower than forecast. Some models did have 1.25-1.5" QPF, but those were the outliers. How you get the QPF matters, though: deformation zones always have higher ratios than warm conveyor belts. Also, temps were slower to cool than expected, which wasted QPF.

Yes, this storm would have been epic with some blocking.

But I mean, it won't be all that great for SNE either.  Anyone who gets double digits out of this storm should consider themselves lucky, and 10" certainly isn't a bust (especially in this winter lol.)

 

[brooklynwx99]

Snow has picked up quite a bit. Close to or at moderate now.

[UlsterCountySnowZ]

Man this won't let up... 13.5" OTG

[Mitchel Volk]

Back to 3/4 S- at wall street

[SnowGoose69]

2 minutes ago, nzucker said:

The liquid received of 1.0"-1.1" was not that much lower than forecast. Some models did have 1.25-1.5" QPF, but those were the outliers. How you get the QPF matters, though: deformation zones always have higher ratios than warm conveyor belts. Also, temps were slower to cool than expected, which wasted QPF.

Yes, this storm would have been epic with some blocking.

The banding also formed late which was a product of the overall later development.  We never really had any impressive meso bands in the metro at any point although we did have bands they weren't remarkably intense 

[EasternLI]

5 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

I haven't looked yet to see if it helps us here but evidently the new Euro has another major snow Sunday or Monday in New England for sure because Twitter is lighting up 

It does. Monday. In New England.

[SnowGoose69]

Cantore just said first time NYC had a record high and then 6 inches the next day. 

[weatherlogix]

4 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

I haven't looked yet to see if it helps us here but evidently the new Euro has another major snow Sunday or Monday in New England for sure because Twitter is lighting up 

very little to no snow for our area

[nesussxwx]

5 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

I haven't looked yet to see if it helps us here but evidently the new Euro has another major snow Sunday or Monday in New England for sure because Twitter is lighting up 

Sheesh.. those lucky son of a guns 

[Paragon]

Just now, SnowGoose69 said:

Cantore just said first time NYC had a record high and then 6 inches the next day. 

That's a shady stat, because a "record high" doesn't identify an exact temp.  What I want to know is what is the most snow that has fallen after it hit 60 the day before?  Or what is the highest temp the day before a Blizzard Warning?

[Paragon]

Just now, nesussxwx said:

Sheesh.. those lucky son of a guns 

Well, it looks like there's another one looking to hit us about a week from now (Feb 16th) and at least a half a dozen good chances after that.

[donsutherland1]

1 minute ago, Paragon said:

That's a shady stat, because a "record high" doesn't identify an exact temp.  What I want to know is what is the most snow that has fallen after it hit 60 the day before?  Or what is the highest temp the day before a Blizzard Warning?

Prior to today's snowfall, the most after a 60° reading in NYC was 5.5" on two occasions.

[NortheastPAWx]

The speed of the storm I thought would be the inhibiting factor in final numbers. My personal thinking was 9-12 possibly up to 14.

Even though 10 was lower end of the models I can't complain. This is my first double digit storm since 2010 after a seemingly endless string of fringings.

[Metasequoia]

Snow just won't quit in Manhattan.

That final band is actualy producing as it comes east.

[Paragon]

3 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

The banding also formed late which was a product of the overall later development.  We never really had any impressive meso bands in the metro at any point although we did have bands they weren't remarkably intense 

Kind of reminds me of winter 2014-15, but a much lighter version of course.  Looks like the month is going to have many more chances though, just like that winter did.