mattinpa Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 Just now, hurricane1091 said: If you're right, I will remember it. It's 49 here, so it's mild. It's only dropped 15 degrees from the high, and needs more than that for snow - not half way there yet! South Jersey may have some problems. It seems the problem with the RGEM isn't precip as much as a warm tongue causing sleet. If rates stay that good, I think snow is a good bet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 Just now, mattinpa said: South Jersey may have some problems. It seems the problem with the RGEM isn't precip as much as a warm tongue causing sleet. If rates stay that good, I think snow is a good bet. There is very strong S/SW LL flow.....just go outside and look up at the moon. Low clouds are roaring in from that direction. Usually a precursor of things to come. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jsdphilly Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 I've been staying away from the models. It looks to me like the situation is unfolding exactly they way it was predicted a few hours ago. Smarter people then me said, it's gonna be warm until it gets cold and then the snow is gonna explode on us. 3am rain, 5 am switch over. 5-noon we get slammed. Eveything looks to be playing out as planned. I'm pumped for the thundersnow early morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shemATC Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 Redskye, you had to say "and no pesky sharp cutoff" earlier didn't you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 2 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: There is very strong S/SW LL flow.....just go outside and look up at the moon. Low clouds are roaring in from that direction. Usually a precursor of things to come. That should shift. The GFS still shows 6-8" for most here. Hope we get at least that. Getting closer to nowcast time. Will be interesting to see what I wake up to. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shemATC Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 What a difference 12 hours makes. I'm going to bed. I stayed up for the blizzard that wasn't. Not going to do that again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rockem_sockem_connection Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 Off to bed here. Doesn't look like a foot is happening for anyone here, but maybe some decent totals will show up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 1 minute ago, shemATC said: What a difference 12 hours makes. I'm going to bed. I stayed up for the blizzard that wasn't. Not going to do that again. Try not to go to bed too down. The GFS still looks decent to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zenmsav6810 Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 I'm still confident I'm down to 40 here in dville massive shelf like cloud in the sky a mile to the west. 12" is the call in my backyard Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 Curiously, the temp has crept up here to 51F from 49F an hour and a half ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 1 minute ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Curiously, the temp has crept up here to 51F from 49F an hour and a half ago. You might want to check that thing. I am at 42.9 and was out just 15 mins ago. 45 on car thermo at that point in Richboro and 43 (matches my thermo) when I got home Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 Just now, hazwoper said: You might want to check that thing. I am at 42.9 and was out just 15 mins ago. 45 on car thermo at that point in Richboro and 43 (matches my thermo) when I got home 44 here. Do you think it is dropping quickly enough? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 A further NW track and qpf drops! Three models saying this now I wouldn't have believed it. All snow here and losing steam with potential accumulations certainly sucks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 12 minutes ago, mattinpa said: Try not to go to bed too down. The GFS still looks decent to me. model noise at this point. enjoy what weather you get. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowwors2 Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 3 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Curiously, the temp has crept up here to 51F from 49F an hour and a half ago. Hey Ralph... strange, I'm not far from you and been dropping all night.. I'm down to 44 with a ne wind!! Spending most of my evening elsewhere reading some terrific analysis but stepped in here for a bit and WOW...some of tonight's "model downer" posters are worse than the "radar hallucinating" group...let's let it all play out folks, PLEASE!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 Cold won't be the problem for many of us or all but the south 1/3 of this region the storm is bombing it will drop fast, I don't like the models weaking qpf, hope it's just noise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DWSI91 Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 does anything exist where I could sign up for my 6 inches right now? Preferably before that 6 turns into 2" and cold rain. Really though, ill be happy having the day off from work tomo and make a note to myself to stop tracking storms altogether as its clear even the models dont even know wtf is going on. 15" to 5" in 3 hours? Gotta laugh to keep from crying Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 5 minutes ago, mattinpa said: 44 here. Do you think it is dropping quickly enough? 850s will crash as storm explodes. I am not worried. 10", 8" or 6" it doesn't really matter to me. The big story has always been the short duration intense snowfall. I am telling you the panic in this thread is laughable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 1 minute ago, DWSI91 said: does anything exist where I could sign up for my 6 inches right now? Preferably before that 6 turns into 2" and cold rain. Really though, ill be happy having the day off from work tomo and make a note to myself to stop tracking storms altogether as its clear even the models dont even know wtf is going on. 15" to 5" in 3 hours? Gotta laugh to keep from crying I never saw any model showing 15 in Mercer. You set yourself up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 Hey Ralph... strange, I'm not far from you and been dropping all night.. I'm down to 44 with a ne wind!! Spending most of my evening elsewhere reading some terrific analysis but stepped in here for a bit and WOW...some of tonight's "model downer" posters are worse than the "radar hallucinating" group...let's let it all play out folks, PLEASE!!!Needed a reset on the old digital therm. 42f now....more realistic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 Cold won't be the problem for many of us or all but the south 1/3 of this region the storm is bombing it will drop fast, I don't like the models weaking qpf, hope it's just noise. But ALL the models cutting qpf virtually in half? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AnthonyDabbundo Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 I'm not concerned about the cold. QPF has been dropping off and that is surprising given how explosive this storm is. Cranky Weather Guy (A great twitter follow) has been saying that he thinks high end of ranges is the better bet (for those of us without temp issues) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DWSI91 Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 3 minutes ago, hazwoper said: I never saw any model showing 15 in Mercer. You set yourself up yea. I was just trying to illustrate the drop off in totals in a rather short period of time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 850s will crash as storm explodes. I am not worried. 10", 8" or 6" it doesn't really matter to me. The big story has always been the short duration intense snowfall. I am telling you the panic in this thread is laughable.Short range hi-res stuff now has the storm exploding after well past us East of OC MD. We miss most of the dynamics the global models were showing earlier today. Unless you are NE of Trenton. Fingers crossed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 Nite all. When I wake at 430 I will know my fate here.....rain and it will be a low end event, sleet I will be praying for a quick flip to snow, snow and its game on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 1 minute ago, Ralph Wiggum said: But ALL the models cutting qpf virtually in half? They all suck Well you and me know what's coming 40's and rain on Sunday, not like it's mid winter and we were going to keep it around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 I want to go back to 12z what the hell happened! An ECM GFS GGEM UKMET quartet 12 hours before a storm should be iron clad guidance. NAM TOO lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AnthonyDabbundo Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 5 minutes ago, RedSky said: I want to go back to 12z what the hell happened! An ECM GFS GGEM UKMET quartet 12 hours before a storm should be iron clad guidance. NAM TOO lol That was my first thought. While I mostly think you guys are panicking a little too much, I thought we were locked and loaded. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 1 minute ago, AnthonyDabbundo said: That was my first thought. While I mostly think you guys are panicking a little too much, I thought we were locked and loaded. Not panicked but nervous, GGEM also dropped qpf. Hopefully the UKMET/ECM hold the fort. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zenmsav6810 Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 Just now, RedSky said: Not panicked but nervous, GGEM also dropped qpf. Hopefully the UKMET/ECM hold the fort. If the UKIE holds my money says it verifies. I believe it scores well with miller b's Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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