mattinpa Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 2 minutes ago, Violentweatherfan said: I can't speak for Shematc, but I think he is worried about temps wasting QPF Some of that depends on banding, which is hard to predict. I think things should be ok as long as rates are good, and it is even safer where I am. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Violentweatherfan Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 We are in the same town and we always do good with this type of Miller B, no worries. EDIT: shemATC and I Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Violentweatherfan Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 Just now, mattinpa said: Some of that depends on banding, which is hard to predict. I think things should be ok as long as rates sad good, and it is even safer where I am. You are further west than I am, Lower Bucks seems to cash in on wrap around snow. I lean towards what TTN up to Central Jersey receives and cut it just a little. I think shemATC and I will cash in on banding more than you might. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shemATC Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 As said before I'm totally worried that the 850 temps will be slow to drop and qpf will be wasted, having to rely on a deform band with 1-2"/hr snow rates after the change over to save it. HRRR is even more worrying than the NAM. Though HRRR is often said, wait an hour it will change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 1 minute ago, Violentweatherfan said: You are further west than I am, Lower Bucks seems to cash in on wrap around snow. I lean towards what TTN up to Central Jersey receives and cut it just a little. I think shemATC and I will cash in on banding more than you might. Might be a bit colder out here though. I think all of us should see a decent storm, which is exciting given the winter so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Violentweatherfan Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 Just now, mattinpa said: Might be a bit colder out here though. I think all of us should see a decent storm, which is exciting given the winter so far. Correct, I forgot to mention you shouldn't have any precip issues at all. Minimal at best, since it's early you wont even know it rained. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sophisticated Skeptic Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 8 minutes ago, shemATC said: As said before I'm totally worried that the 850 temps will be slow to drop and qpf will be wasted, having to rely on a deform band with 1-2"/hr snow rates after the change over to save it. HRRR is even more worrying than the NAM. Though HRRR is often said, wait an hour it will change. HRRR is wrong... A LOT of times. It changes its mind every hour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rockem_sockem_connection Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 I tried to keep conservative throughout this. Been fooled before, but if it straight up results in 1-3" for Philly mark my words - I will never be fooled again! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shemATC Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 Just now, Sophisticated Skeptic said: HRRR is wrong... A LOT of times. Yeah well I got to look at something and freak out between the big boy runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Violentweatherfan Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 5 minutes ago, shemATC said: Yeah well I got to look at something and freak out between the big boy runs. 78% chance! Keep the faith.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zenmsav6810 Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 I told everyone at work 10 to 15..... yikes. Hoping for the 28f to come through. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Newman Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 8 minutes ago, Violentweatherfan said: 78% chance! Keep the faith.... Coming from you, what do you feel us NW burbs people will get? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Violentweatherfan Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 1 minute ago, Newman said: Coming from you, what do you feel us NW burbs people will get? I think your totals will be down since Fleetwood Pa is much further west. You'll see minimal precip issues since you are west, also Miller B storms have a sharp cut off. Your totals will suffer from it. 5/6 inches with not much variance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 Expectations set for my neck of the woods are 9-10" Over 10" is yippee ki-yay <8" unacceptable fail <6" Are you frigging kidding me God where is early spring Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 I purposely stayed away from the board today as I had a hunch panic was going to ensue for many members. My current thoughts based on ACTUAL weather and conditions outside of my house here in Central Bucks County: 1) Still sitting at 50 degress 2) Looking up at the moon, there is a low level flow from the South/Southwest as clouds are streaming in from that direction 3) Winds are calm, light SW breeze My thoughts....I honestly DO NOT like the fact we are still at 50F. I know it is progged to drop after midnight but real obs vs modeled progs. I will side with real data attm and voice my concern, so there's that :-) I also dislike this LL S/SW flow ALOT! This is going to keep 850mb warm until they turn around and clearly this will also introduce a warm level below that, so I could see some places hanging onto sleet during the transition for longer than expected. Not the prettiest picture you want to see just hours from the onset of a winter storm but I digress. Still thinking 4-8" is a safe bet up this way. South of the turnpike and specifically East of I476 has me very concerned. There is BIG bust potential with this system in those areas that I mentioned and they are right on the line and could go either way. VERY touch-and-go situation. I will end by saying, if this goes awry, I curse the OP who decided to start this thread after being told the snow Gods dont like it this year. That is all. Good luck everyone. May the force, err, snow be with you! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Newman Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 1 minute ago, Violentweatherfan said: I think your totals will be down since Fleetwood Pa is much further west. You'll see minimal precip issues since you are west, also Miller B storms have a sharp cut off. Your totals will suffer from it. 5/6 inches with not much variance. Well, I told everyone who asked me today 6-10". Some markets have more and some have less. I have experienced too many heartbreaks by hoping too much. This has bust written all over it. This type of storm is very band-dependent/ratio-dependent. 5/6 inches sounds like a good bet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Violentweatherfan Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 3 minutes ago, Newman said: Well, I told everyone who asked me today 6-10". Some markets have more and some have less. I have experienced too many heartbreaks by hoping too much. This has bust written all over it. This type of storm is very band-dependent/ratio-dependent. 5/6 inches sounds like a good bet. Not really, you left your self room for error which is good. There might be some spots with excess of 5/6 inches, anyhow once pilled up and shoveled it will appear more than 5/6 inches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 7 minutes ago, Newman said: Well, I told everyone who asked me today 6-10". Some markets have more and some have less. I have experienced too many heartbreaks by hoping too much. This has bust written all over it. This type of storm is very band-dependent/ratio-dependent. 5/6 inches sounds like a good bet. Some of us have been saying these banding-dependent systems have big bust potential all week long. That's not even the biggest issue. The BL temps as we also alluded to are going to be an issue as well. Places are going to need 1) 850s to crash south of them fast and 2) banding to develop over them. Need both for this to be a winner. Sub freezing 850s and light snow wont cut it and banding alone with borderline 850s and inversion underneath that isn't going to work either imo. Mixing/dynamics work sometimes to cool the column....not all the time and certainly never a given. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shemATC Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 Ralph, I apologize for panic. If the possibility of anything over 6" had never been seen or it hadn't been close to 70 today I don't think I'd care. Give me 4 inches and bring on spring. Now it just feels like mother nature doing another Lucy. Some in the forum will definitely hit 6+ (Newman I'd say 6-8 should be no problem), but those of us south and east along the river are going to be quite disappointed. Ralph I wouldn't be surprised if you got double what falls in Langhorne, and that's not all that far a distance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rockem_sockem_connection Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 14 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: I purposely stayed away from the board today as I had a hunch panic was going to ensue for many members. My current thoughts based on ACTUAL weather and conditions outside of my house here in Central Bucks County: 1) Still sitting at 50 degress 2) Looking up at the moon, there is a low level flow from the South/Southwest as clouds are streaming in from that direction 3) Winds are calm, light SW breeze My thoughts....I honestly DO NOT like the fact we are still at 50F. I know it is progged to drop after midnight but real obs vs modeled progs. I will side with real data attm and voice my concern, so there's that :-) I also dislike this LL S/SW flow ALOT! This is going to keep 850mb warm until they turn around and clearly this will also introduce a warm level below that, so I could see some places hanging onto sleet during the transition for longer than expected. Not the prettiest picture you want to see just hours from the onset of a winter storm but I digress. Still thinking 4-8" is a safe bet up this way. South of the turnpike and specifically East of I476 has me very concerned. There is BIG bust potential with this system in those areas that I mentioned and they are right on the line and could go either way. VERY touch-and-go situation. I will end by saying, if this goes awry, I curse the OP who decided to start this thread after being told the snow Gods dont like it this year. That is all. Good luck everyone. May the force, err, snow be with you! I blame you for jinxing things with those bullish numbers from yesterday! Just kidding of course. Data showed what it showed, easy to jump the gun. I mentioned in the Mid Atlantic forums when they were all happy that this same scenario has busted in the past, and it wasn't well received. STILL hoping for the best! Just an edit: I used to know a thing or two about the weather, and attended school very briefly for meteorology before changing course. I was fairly jaded and almost made it a purpose to stay away and forget all I learned from forums like these, and I did a good job of that. My life has moved on and I'm in a stable career, so I started to come back to these types of outlets. For no scientific reasons, I've been weary. I've been weary just because any time we depend on temps to drop after starting as rain, for some reason it just does not pan out most times. I think relying on past experiences in weather just tends to work? Who knows. I wish I didn't block things out and forget everything though, my only regret. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Newman Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 3 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Some of us have been saying these banding-dependent systems have big bust potential all week long. That's not even the biggest issue. The BL temps as we also alluded to are going to be an issue as well. Places are going to need 1) 850s to crash fast and 2) banding to develop over them. Need both for this to be a winner. 850s and light snow wont cut it and banding alone with 850s and inversion underneath that isn't going to work either imo. Mixing/dynamics work sometimes to cool the column....not all the time and certainly not a given. Checking the 850s, they haven't budged in the past 4 hours. Gradient is pretty tight, however, as expected: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 5 minutes ago, shemATC said: Ralph, I apologize for panic. If the possibility of anything over 6" had never been seen or it hadn't been close to 70 today I don't think I'd care. Give me 4 inches and bring on spring. Now it just feels like mother nature doing another Lucy. Some in the forum will definitely hit 6+ (Newman I'd say 6-8 should be no problem), but those of us south and east along the river are going to be quite disappointed. Ralph I wouldn't be surprised if you got double what falls in Langhorne, and that's not all that far a distance. Well, the Wiggum Rule is in effect after today's highs, so there's that ;-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RevWarReenactor Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 I am going to bed and preparing for work tomorrow. Even 2 or 3 inches could justify a telework day but I doubt that now here. 1 inch would even shock me to be honest. This just has bust written all over it. Nice spring night outside. I just don't see it. Been burned too many times by this nonsense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shemATC Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 RGEM has now caved. Coldest and most Southern has now crept north as well. I realize live data and nowcasting is more productive at this point, but can't discount the computer processing power. I realize 4-6 still possible, but looking like 2-4 is much safer bet then 4-6. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rockem_sockem_connection Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 2 minutes ago, Mdecoy said: I am going to bed and preparing for work tomorrow. Even 2 or 3 inches could justify a telework day but I doubt that now here. 1 inch would even shock me to be honest. This just has bust written all over it. Nice spring night outside. I just don't see it. Been burned too many times by this nonsense. Everyone has, but everyone is so quick to forget the past or gets caught up in the moment. Why though does this continually happen? What makes it tough is, some people will sit and watch the rain never turn to snow, and others pile it up. These types of situations are so tough - but I wonder why time and time again we'll see guidance suggest something big in the works even though we know it's iffy at best given the situation, and then things change last second. It's so hard to ignore what models show, but this same storm has repeated itself before and it will do it again and again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sophisticated Skeptic Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 9 minutes ago, Newman said: Checking the 850s, they haven't budged in the past 4 hours. Gradient is pretty tight, however, as expected: No worries, temps will crash. I'm already colder at 2100 feet. 30.2 degrees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 3 minutes ago, shemATC said: RGEM has now caved. Coldest and most Southern has now crept north as well. I realize live data and nowcasting is more productive at this point, but can't discount the computer processing power. I realize 4-6 still possible, but looking like 2-4 is much safer bet then 4-6. 2-4" could be pushing it on the RGEM....ALOT of that is sleet falling during the height. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 1 minute ago, Ralph Wiggum said: 2-4" could be pushing it on the RGEM....ALOT of that is sleet falling during the height. I am NOT buying it. I guess we will all see tomorrow. Temp is dropping here into the mid 40s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rockem_sockem_connection Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 3 minutes ago, mattinpa said: I am NOT buying it. I guess we will all see tomorrow. Temp is dropping here into the mid 40s. If you're right, I will remember it. It's 49 here, so it's mild. It's only dropped 15 degrees from the high, and needs more than that for snow - not half way there yet! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tibet Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 35 minutes ago, RedSky said: Expectations set for my neck of the woods are 9-10" Over 10" is yippee ki-yay <8" unacceptable fail <6" Are you frigging kidding me God where is early spring I'm holding you too this lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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