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Feb 8-9th Storm discussion


SnowLover22

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47 minutes ago, hurricane1091 said:

So some guidance shows Philly in the 4-6 range, but other guidance shows Philly in the 9-12 range - any everyone is going with that. Aside from weenieism, any reason why?

because the 9-12 range models are the NAM, RGEM, GFS, EURO, and UK. in fact I don't know what model you're referring to that shows 4-6 inches.

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13 minutes ago, shemATC said:

Not digging how north this NAM run is.  Chester/Philly/Lower bucks really get a late change over.  Might not crack 3" if this verifies.

I wouldn't worry too much. If you get heavy banding, things should cool quickly. Plus the NAM did not look that different to me except maybe right at onset.

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3 minutes ago, mattinpa said:

I wouldn't worry too much. If you get heavy banding, things should cool quickly. Plus the NAM did not look that different to me except maybe right at onset.

The last three runs for panels at 08z, the 850 r/s line has moved from south of the river to almost Quakertown.  That's enough to worry me once we're inside 24 hours.

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4 minutes ago, shemATC said:

The last three runs for panels at 08z, the 850 r/s line has moved from south of the river to almost Quakertown.  That's enough to worry me once we're inside 24 hours.

The best stuff isn't even here yet then. Something to watch however on the short term models, which are coming in range.

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4 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

Comparison of the 12 km and 4 km versions of the NAM:

 

NAMphl0208201718z.jpg

Very nice, should extreme SEPA especially Lower Bucks County be concerned losing qpf to warm temps.  I believe a poster above was checking the past 3 panels(850r/s line) and gave me concern too.

Thanks so much Don.

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4k in my opinion really overdoes convection usually.  That means the snow map for that needs all the banding to verify to get those amounts.  The 12k tends to be smoothed out more leading to a more consistent and likely outcome.

True that by 8z the best stuff isn't here yet, but if the 850 line pushes south and takes 2 hrs to change over instead of 1 or 0, that's alot of qpf in the heart of the storm that might not be frozen.  True it might be freaking out about 1 run of the NAM, but 30-40 miles for some could change things from 2 inches of slurpee ice to 8" of snow.

 

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48 minutes ago, Bluescat1 said:

Thanks Don I knew it was warm, I believe it dropped to 6 degrees in NYC, that is some contrast especially for mid March.

 

Central Park's high for 3/13/1888 was 12, almost certainly at 11:59 PM as the low for the 14th was also 12.  I think that's the lowest max for any March day in their records.  The old NYC location at Battery Place on the south tip of Manhattan managed to get down to 4.8 on 3/13.

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1 hour ago, The Iceman said:

because the 9-12 range models are the NAM, RGEM, GFS, EURO, and UK. in fact I don't know what model you're referring to that shows 4-6 inches.

 

Yeah, nothing shows 4-6, I meant 4-8. More like 6-9" - but certainly not 9-12". No local met is calling for that either. Good to hope though.

 

When I say Philly, I am always referring to Philly S&E as well (not the shore), but I know that's just something I do.

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17 minutes ago, shemATC said:

RGEM trend.  Going to be a nerve racking next 6 hours waiting for all the guidance runs.  Not a good trend for us in the S/E section of the forum.

 

rgem_asnow_neus_fh24_trend.gif

I'm right in the Langhorne border, pretty much in the same boat as you and this will turn out well for us. We seem to be able to "glom" onto what KTTN and north get.  It's unusual for our area to miss out while central/north jersey does really well and we don't.

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