MacChump Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 7 minutes ago, hazwoper said: Ugh. Now I have to bring the blower up from the basement. Good problem to have I suppose. Don't you dare. Not even gassing mine up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 7 minutes ago, hazwoper said: Ugh. Now I have to bring the blower up from the basement. Good problem to have I suppose. At least you still own one ;-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 12z 4km NAM stays the course with 10" + in my backyard and many others....still think we might lose a bit more to rain then some models are showing but...just my opinion Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yankeex777 Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 Has there been a consensus on start times? A friend has a flight out of ttn tomorrw. Wheels up at 645am.... Might be dicey.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shemATC Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 20 minutes ago, yankeex777 said: Has there been a consensus on start times? A friend has a flight out of ttn tomorrw. Wheels up at 645am.... Might be dicey.... Definitely dicey, especially out of TTN which might not have the same level of weather response as the big airports. 6:45 looks to be "just" before heaviest rates start, but plus or minus 30 minutes could make a huge difference. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 22 minutes ago, yankeex777 said: Has there been a consensus on start times? A friend has a flight out of ttn tomorrw. Wheels up at 645am.... Might be dicey.... I'd assume that flight will be canceled. TTN doesn't deal well with poor weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 I had a connecting flight out of LGA at 7:05. I cancelled because delta sent an email stating you might want to start changing your flights (free of charge).That makes me think they will pull trigger and cancel early.Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jsdphilly Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 Whats the confidence in these forecasts? I am trying to decide how much I should plan for closing the office in 19027 tomorrow? We open at 730am-2pm. Any chance this all stays warm and we just get an inch or so? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 12z GFS and the check please! All around best run so far wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 5 minutes ago, Jsdphilly said: Whats the confidence in these forecasts? I am trying to decide how much I should plan for closing the office in 19027 tomorrow? We open at 730am-2pm. Any chance this all stays warm and we just get an inch or so? That seems very unlikely but I could see totals not being as much as predicted. (3-4"?) The changeover time is key...precipitation will be there but in what form? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jsdphilly Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 Just now, Birds~69 said: That seems very unlikely but I could see totals not being as much as predicted. (3-4"?) The changeover time is key...precipitation will be there but in what form? seems to me that even if the change over is later, morning rush hour is going to be a snow event. Once we get 3+ inches, almost none of our patients will drive. Once the word snow is in the forecast, we usually will lose about 50% before even flakes fall. Besides the fact that I love snow, once the forecast is there, I really need it to follow through. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 Just now, Jsdphilly said: seems to me that even if the change over is later, morning rush hour is going to be a snow event. Once we get 3+ inches, almost none of our patients will drive. Once the word snow is in the forecast, we usually will lose about 50% before even flakes fall. Besides the fact that I love snow, once the forecast is there, I really need it to follow through. Yeah, most likey. I was just talking about all around totals might not be as high as some have predicted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 First time in 9 years Philly and Quakertown were at 14" on the same map using 12z Kuchera lol, without that sic gradient that has been omnipresent. Overdone likely but fun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jsdphilly Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 I get inappropriately excited at the idea of 1"-2"/hour snow mentions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bluescat1 Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 I wonder how many people are going to look at the 1-3" forecast, as well as today's 60 degree temps and be lulled into a false sense of no big deal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 4 minutes ago, Bluescat1 said: I wonder how many people are going to look at the 1-3" forecast, as well as today's 60 degree temps and be lulled into a false sense of no big deal. I came up one degree short of 60 here this morning, and the call is for "possibly" 8-10 inches up this way. Anyone who doesn't pay attention to a TV weather forecast is going to be in for a shock tomorrow morning... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 Then we will be the, "World must be coming to end" quote.Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 1 minute ago, Voyager said: I came up one degree short of 60 here this morning, and the call is for "possibly" 8-10 inches (3-7 tonight and 2-4 tomorrow per point and click) up this way. Anyone who doesn't pay attention to a TV weather forecast is going to be in for a shock tomorrow morning... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 Would you take a 12" eight hour storm with a several hour death band period of rates vs a typical 24 hour drawn out variable intensity 18-24" HECS? I would. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jsdphilly Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 2 minutes ago, RedSky said: Would you take a 12" eight hour storm with a several hour death band period of rates vs a typical 24 hour drawn out variable intensity 18-24" HECS? I would. Oh yea! Especially if it all gets rolling at 5AM so i don't have to stay up all night to watch it. Nothing better then early morning to early afternoon crusher. Especially wet snow...16+inches of that is a PIA the shovel Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Newman Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 4 minutes ago, RedSky said: Would you take a 12" eight hour storm with a several hour death band period of rates vs a typical 24 hour drawn out variable intensity 18-24" HECS? I would. I would rather take the long duration storm. I like having snow falling for a full day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 Philadelphia's 2" or Greater Snowfalls following Days with 60° or above Maximum Temperatures (1890-2016): Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 3 minutes ago, Newman said: I would rather take the long duration storm. I like having snow falling for a full day. PDII was a great one for you then. 30 hour event of mostly 1/4 to 1/2" rates totalling 22" when it was over I was shrugging my shoulders saying "well that was boring". Then of course all the HECS experienced up here outside of last year the death bands have been off to the SE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Newman Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 10 minutes ago, RedSky said: PDII was a great one for you then. 30 hour event of mostly 1/4 to 1/2" rates totalling 22" when it was over I was shrugging my shoulders saying "well that was boring". Then of course all the HECS experienced up here outside of last year the death bands have been off to the SE. The strong fronto band will likely set up SE of us again tomorrow. At least most guidance has it there for now... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 29 minutes ago, RedSky said: Would you take a 12" eight hour storm with a several hour death band period of rates vs a typical 24 hour drawn out variable intensity 18-24" HECS? I would. Definitely one like this storm is predicted to be. Especially since we just had a 2 foot storm last winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cary Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 2 hours ago, hurricane1091 said: We will see! I'll play it safe and stick with lower totals/expectations. 4-7" it is for Philly S&E We can even go 5-8" to meet everyone in the middle. I understand many models are outputting 8-10", but I am going to say it ends up less than that just based on past experience with these types of storms. Not doing anything scientific, just remembering thinking similar scenarios would result in good snow only for totals to be lower than my expectations. Philly and the nearby suburbs could easily achieve somewhere close to the higher totals if the dynamics are right. The dynamics will certainly be there, it is a matter of timing and location. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 GGEM has a uniform 10" snow for SEPA, north Delaware and large part of Jersey. Kuchera ratios with the GGEM closer to 12" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 Have to like the dynamics in play with the front separating the extreme range in temperature the storm could be quite the mini nuke with convection. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 Crazy uncle Ukie agrees with GFS Philly to NYC pasting 12-15" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bluescat1 Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 1 hour ago, Voyager said: I came up one degree short of 60 here this morning, and the call is for "possibly" 8-10 inches up this way. Anyone who doesn't pay attention to a TV weather forecast is going to be in for a shock tomorrow morning... Sitting at 62.5 in TTN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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