RevWarReenactor Posted February 10, 2017 Share Posted February 10, 2017 On 2/9/2017 at 5:54 AM, Ralph Wiggum said: But the models aren't always right....this is meteorology. You were warned last evening that current obs didn't favor the extreme amounts that some models were predicting. Couple that with past history of 60 degrees followed by snow and yeah. However, I don't fault the NWS one bit because this could have gone either way down there even as late as 1AM this morning. And IF the NWS decided not to post WSW for that area, people would still be complaining "why aren't they posting WSW's? what are they waiting for?". They cant win sometimes. There is always a screw zone with these types of systems, it is inevitable. Sorry that it looks to be N DE for this one. Yes, I was warned, and was prepared, but it is still disappointing as it would have been for philly on north if you had nothing more than a dusting to show for the effort. Right? I agree that it can't always be right, but it seems wrong more often than not, way wrong. You'd think that model accuracy would have improved a lot more in the last 20 years. Doesn't seem like it has improved at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted February 10, 2017 Share Posted February 10, 2017 1 hour ago, Mdecoy said: Yes, I was warned, and was prepared, but it is still disappointing as it would have been for philly on north if you had nothing more than a dusting to show for the effort. Right? I agree that it can't always be right, but it seems wrong more often than not, way wrong. You'd think that model accuracy would have improved a lot more in the last 20 years. Doesn't seem like it has improved at all. I think the problem here was the storm type (Miller B), which is essentially a thread-the-needle type setup in this area. There was a good discussion about that here (wow, almost 7 years ago!) - Miller Bs tend to ultimately be New England jackpots (and we saw that with this event) but are dicey down in this latitude. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RevWarReenactor Posted February 10, 2017 Share Posted February 10, 2017 5 hours ago, Hurricane Agnes said: I think the problem here was the storm type (Miller B), which is essentially a thread-the-needle type setup in this area. There was a good discussion about that here (wow, almost 7 years ago!) - Miller Bs tend to ultimately be New England jackpots (and we saw that with this event) but are dicey down in this latitude. Yep, very true. Having lived on the central Jersey coast for all my life and moving down to Delaware in 2011, I now know the meaning of this. Despite being about equal distance from Washington DC as I am from the NJ coast, the conditions here have always tracked well with DC's screw job instead of NJ coasts jackpot. Just the way of it I guess. I always thought that average yearly snowfalls were similar, well not in the last 6 years they haven't been. I am still waiting for that storm where we get more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RevWarReenactor Posted February 10, 2017 Share Posted February 10, 2017 But with this storm I thought it was more of a timing thing. Temps really weren't all that different. Change over timing was similar. But further northeast had hours left of precip, we had about 30 minutes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Violentweatherfan Posted February 10, 2017 Share Posted February 10, 2017 Within that Miller A vs Miller B thread Forky attached a great journal written by Mr Miller himself. http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/pdf/10.1175/1520-0469(1946)003<0031%3ACITACR>2.0.CO%3B2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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