Bodhi Cove Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 8 minutes ago, mappy said: hr 48: 42° to start, column is warm, .3 qpf hr 54: 38°, column good, .5 qpf you might be able to eek out 1" ok, i gtg. I suggest vitamin B and a nap. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 Early on the 12z nam (hr33)...looking good. A bit juicier at the surface, and a bit colder 850's. Hopefully good trends for you all today! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 1 minute ago, losetoa6 said: 6z Ukie track....stole it from the other board. http://forums.accuweather.com/index.php?act=attach&type=post&id=316058 that track is money for you. not bad for me if it was actually cold enough. 2m temps gonna crap in my cornflakes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thanatos_I_Am Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 12z NAM so far is a tad SE with the SLP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 26 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: When this fails will you jump with me and Clueless? The more the merrier. This is a dud winter, but I won't jump until President's Day. At that time I'll probably be happy to. NAM report. DPs a little better by 00z Thursday vs the 06z run. I find those more instructive to look at than the actual temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 1 minute ago, MN Transplant said: This is a dud winter, but I won't jump until President's Day. At that time I'll probably be happy to. NAM report. DPs a little better by 00z Thursday vs the 06z run. I find those more instructive to look at than the actual temps. Good point, thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paleocene Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 1 minute ago, BristowWx said: that track is money for you. not bad for me if it was actually cold enough. 2m temps gonna crap in my cornflakes ...ew? I'm still worried about temps on this one. For those of us along or just east of the fall line, there are too many memories of marginal temp situations not working out. Gotta hope for deathband/nukage/raking/pummeling in the right spot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PivotPoint Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 10 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: 6z Ukie track....stole ( borrowed) it from the other board. http://forums.accuweather.com/index.php?act=attach&type=post&id=316058 One thing we might have going for us is look at the line plot in your link. From the blue dot to the green dot the pressure drops from 1000 mb to 990mb. That's a pretty rapid intensification right in the spot that most of our good storms produce a heavy band. At the very least we will probably get a nice amount of evap cooling as the best lift starts to increaseright where we want it and hopefully some good DBZ returns overhead. What we really need is that you ukie track with that rapid intensification and I think this at least HAS the potential to perform 3-5" through nova/md Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 4 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: 6z Ukie track....stole ( borrowed) it from the other board. http://forums.accuweather.com/index.php?act=attach&type=post&id=316058 The timing of the intensification of the low will be key for area and this is probably close to how we want to see it play out. Need it somewhat weak to our southwest with the rapid intensification beginning as it begins passing underneath. That way it limits the southerly flow early on but ramps up helping to pull in the colder air as it passes to our east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 7, 2017 Author Share Posted February 7, 2017 12z NAM at 45 1000mb SLP in S VA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 09z Thursday Good VVs Temps marginal above, better to the north Surface still sketchy as heck Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 It's going to be a big hit up north for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 7, 2017 Author Share Posted February 7, 2017 48 998mb just off Delmarva Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 Needs some ticks south to get in here! A lot of dynamics now and precip. Just too far north and too warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 Colder run with 850's for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 The NAM is basically a 3-4 hour band of moderate rain for DC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 Trough at 500's was a touch deeper this run. Heights in front were a touch higher initially but crashed quicker as the storm moved in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 For what itis worth wee see another shift south on the snowfield on the maps. Roughly 20-25 miles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 09z - height of the precip at DCA. Worse than I thought it would look Corresponding 800mb map at 09z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paleocene Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 Notable trend of the 2" or so line from 00z - 06z - 12z 12k NAM runs. At 00z, it was around I-76, now it's down to near I-70. Still not much at all for the vast majority of us who live south of I-70. The 4k has a more SW-NE axis of snow: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PivotPoint Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 12 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: Good point Pivotpoint! Agree Showmethesnow. ..good catch Thanks! Haha, I see we made the same point at the same exact time. Personally I like the ukie. And honestly when it's paired with the euro they are a good combo... We just need euro to keep being King for 24 more hours lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 5 minutes ago, showmethesnow said: For what itis worth wee see another shift south on the snowfield on the maps. Roughly 20-25 miles. Yep. they now have 2" down into northern MD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 6 minutes ago, Paleocene said: Notable trend of the 2" or so line from 00z - 06z - 12z 12k NAM runs. At 00z, it was around I-76, now it's down to near I-70. Still not much at all for the vast majority of us who live south of I-70. The 4k has a more SW-NE axis of snow: That doesnt look awful. I am near 3 inches on that map. I would take half that..and like it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PivotPoint Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 That's a pretty good improvement on the NAM for the nova/md line eta: i'll be honest. That latest nam map is pretty much how I think this thing is going to pan out verbatim. That looks very accurate to what I think the ground truth will eventually be imho Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 8 minutes ago, MN Transplant said: 09z - height of the precip at DCA. Worse than I thought it would look Corresponding 800mb map at 09z Is everybody just ignoring this? The NAM was awful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 1 minute ago, PivotPoint said: That's a pretty good improvement on the NAM for the nova/md line You don't have to go too far north to get crushed. Psu should be pleased. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
feloniousq Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 10:1 seems like a real stretch here, no? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paleocene Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 1 minute ago, stormtracker said: Is everybody just ignoring this? The NAM was awful. Not at all. I think it was a terrible run for inside the beltway, and a 15 mile radius around it too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 10 minutes ago, Paleocene said: Not at all. I think it was a terrible run for inside the beltway, and a 15 mile radius around it too The trend overall is not horrible, but the District is running out of time for anything decent. I changed my mind. We have 7 more NAM runs! I blame the other Debbie downers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 2 minutes ago, BTRWx said: The trend overall is not horrible, but the District is running out of time for anything decent. Yeah I think we're just about toast. If everything trended towards the Euro this morning I'd say trace - 2 inches of mangled garbage in the district, but now I'd forecast rain --> white rain (if we're lucky). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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