February 8-9 Cold Rain Event

[Stormpc]

Us folks south of US 50 need a Hail Mary. These rarely work out for us. However, west of Assburn toward JI and Winchester then north of the ICC I would believe is good for SOME accumulating snow. North of I70 into Hburg/York thru TTN, LI and New Eng looks to be in for a nice ride. 

 

[Scraff]

1 minute ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Temps temps temps.

 I'm still deeply skeptical, but we have to hope we can 1) perform with temps and 2) get crushed for a sustained period.

06z GFS crushes us with the paste, but is also warmer at the surface than 12z. All kinds of fraud five flags are flying. Again, put up or shut up time for King Euro. My guess is that the ukie and euro are closer to right on the overall evolution, but it's all about the track/timing/temps.

I hear that loud and clear. Thanks. Today feels like a nail biting kind of day. 

[H2O]

I would rather have the comfort of colder temps and less precip than nail biting on temps with plenty of mm or in falling

[osfan24]

I would rather have legit cold temps than the precip, but in this setup, I'd rather have 33-34 and a real thump than 30-31 and light precip, especially with how warm the roads are going to be.

[mappy]

OK. Actually taking the time to write out a nice post. Focusing mainly up my area, sorry southerners. 

Looking at soundings

NAM: 33° IMBY at hour 51, pouring rain. Surface is at 30° by hour 54, snow. Some sneaky warm air comes in at hour 57, 28° at the surface but above freezing at 700mb, so a freezing rain mix, precip is pretty much out of the area by this point, so won't matter anyways. Pivotalweather.com has .73 of qpf. I'd guess about .4 of that would be at or below freezing. 

GFS: Hour 48, surface is 36° with light precip. Probably rain, though column is mostly at or below freezing all the way down. All snow by hour 54, surface is 30°. Precip is out of the area by hour 60, but another small batch comes through at hour 66. Most QPF is from hour 48 to 54 (with .54 falling IMBY). I'd say half of that is snow? I'd guess changeover would be quick given rates and an already close to freezing column when precip starts. 

Euro: Precip moves in around hour 48 (06z), surface temp ~37°, rest of the column is below freezing. Hour 54, surface down to ~30° with good precip. About .4 qpf falls between hour 48 and hour 54. I'll say half of that is snow. Light precip off and on the rest of the day, temps below freezing IMBY. 

If I had to forecast today, I'd go with 2-4" of paste IMBY. 

I'd be happy to give quick rundowns for other locations from Euro.  

[WxUSAF]

Precip and temps are linked here. Need heavy precip to get temps down to freezing. Light precip is going to be 37F rasn, especially in the cities and suburbs.

[PhineasC]

23 minutes ago, Stormpc said:

Us folks south of US 50 need a Hail Mary. These rarely work out for us. However, west of Assburn toward JI and Winchester then north of the ICC I would believe is good for SOME accumulating snow. North of I70 into Hburg/York thru TTN, LI and New Eng looks to be in for a nice ride. 

 

Folks south of I-70 are going to need serious help too...

This screams far northern tier event. York, PA deck pics incoming.

[mappy]

4 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Nice post. It's every location for itself now.  

Edit: though I need you to do better for me to have a shot. If this sucks for you...

Ha, yeah sorry. I just had to email H2O and tell him the bad news. surface temps of mid to low 40s dropping only to mid 30s during the event for his backyard. eehhhhhh. 

for you: .7 qpf, most rain. You are at 33° at hour 54 with a freezing column. You are right on the edge, my friend, get enough rates and you should flip early on I think. 

[WeSuck]

In all honesty, do I finally stand a better chance in Leesburg this go around? I am worried about temps even here. UKMET/Euro blend seems best case, no?

[mappy]

3 minutes ago, CoastalBecs said:

In all honesty, do I finally stand a better chance in Leesburg this go around? I am worried about temps even here. UKMET/Euro blend seems best case, no?

really depends on when you flip. you are warm to start (just looking at the euro right now), but column is plenty cold by hour 54, even if the surface is a tad warm (35°)

[mitchnick]

I don't know why any of us should be worried really. We'll all be in the 50's Saturday thru Monday, so whether you get 6" or 1", it's all gone before the end of the weekend. 

And notice I never even mentioned the warm ground melting from underneath or sun angle. Lol

[osfan24]

I think bottom line for cities and immediate metros is you are going to need a thump to get temps down close to freezing and get accumulation. If that doesn't happen, you will get rain or snow, but it won't matter what is falling because it will be mid to high 30's and won't stick.

[Rockem_sockem_connection]

I often find that storms starting as rain after very warm temps lead to totals being lower than what people want them to be. I would be cautious.

[mappy]

3 minutes ago, hurricane1091 said:

I often find that storms starting as rain after very warm temps lead to totals being lower than what people want them to be. I would be cautious.

you don't say? please, tell us more. 

[mappy]

1 minute ago, losetoa6 said:

True....but Any snow will freeze like a block Thursday night with low to mid teen lows and only hit 20s on Friday will give us 1 day to enjoy. ..according to euro.

It could melt by end of day thursday, I don't care. snow is snow

[pasnownut]

22 minutes ago, mappy said:

OK. Actually taking the time to write out a nice post. Focusing mainly up my area, sorry southerners. 

Looking at soundings

NAM: 33° IMBY at hour 51, pouring rain. Surface is at 30° by hour 54, snow. Some sneaky warm air comes in at hour 57, 28° at the surface but above freezing at 700mb, so a freezing rain mix, precip is pretty much out of the area by this point, so won't matter anyways. Pivotalweather.com has .73 of qpf. I'd guess about .4 of that would be at or below freezing. 

GFS: Hour 48, surface is 36° with light precip. Probably rain, though column is mostly at or below freezing all the way down. All snow by hour 54, surface is 30°. Precip is out of the area by hour 60, but another small batch comes through at hour 66. Most QPF is from hour 48 to 54 (with .54 falling IMBY). I'd say half of that is snow? I'd guess changeover would be quick given rates and an already close to freezing column when precip starts. 

Euro: Precip moves in around hour 48 (06z), surface temp ~37°, rest of the column is below freezing. Hour 54, surface down to ~30° with good precip. About .4 qpf falls between hour 48 and hour 54. I'll say half of that is snow. Light precip off and on the rest of the day, temps below freezing IMBY. 

If I had to forecast today, I'd go with 2-4" of paste IMBY. 

I'd be happy to give quick rundowns for other locations from Euro.  

Hey Mappy.  Just for fun if you wanna throw Euro #'s for KLNS in to see what the difference is, as it sounds like the "line" may be somewhere between us.

thanks in advance.

Nut

 

[HighStakes]

6 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

True....but Any snow will freeze like a block Thursday night with low to mid teen lows and only hit 20s on Friday will give us 1 day to enjoy. ..according to euro.

Gfs has some pretty good snow showers rolling through Thursday afternoon after the main storm. Well see if that continues to show up.

[mappy]

1 minute ago, pasnownut said:

Hey Mappy.  Just for fun if you wanna throw Euro #'s for KLNS in to see what the difference is, as it sounds like the "line" may be somewhere between us.

thanks in advance.

Nut

 

I don't have access to soundings, but going by the maps themselves
 

hour 48: surface 39°, column is at or below freezing, .1 qpf

hour 54: surface 31°, column is good, .5 qpf 

Light precip for hours 60 and 66, plenty cold

24hr precip is .6 qpf

Other than your warm surface temp at onset, you should do okay. a little more elevation would help you out a lot though, quicker flip time. 

I'd be comfortable calling 2-4" for you as well. hope that helps  

[gymengineer]

The 6Z GFS took a jump towards the deeper, tucked in low on the other models; it was a significant change of 5mb by 12Z Thursday compared to the 0Z run. But the 0Z Euro and other global models moved the low somewhat north compared to their 12Z runs from yesterday. So, we can see the convergence starting to happen in the modeling with the low exiting off Ocean City, MD instead of the VA Capes like the best Euro runs were showing. 

With that low placement, it would make sense that the temps are trending a bit warmer for 12Z on Thursday.

[Rockem_sockem_connection]

4 minutes ago, mappy said:

you don't say? please, tell us more. 

No need for sass, just pointing out that how many times do we see people call for totals in these situation, and then see the result be half of those totals and everyone left feeling upset. Changeover occurs later than people  want and they start getting antsy, sticking naturally a problem, etc. Some will win, some will lose. Brace yourself, the slop is coming.

[pasnownut]

Just now, mappy said:

I don't have access to soundings, but going by the maps themselves
 

hour 48: surface 39°, column is at or below freezing, .1 qpf

hour 54: surface 31°, column is good, .5 qpf 

Light precip for hours 60 and 66, plenty cold

24hr precip is .6 qpf

Other than your warm surface temp at onset, you should do okay. a little more elevation would help you out a lot though, quicker flip time. 

I'd be comfortable calling 2-4" for you as well. hope that helps  

Thanks.  Sounds like the "line" is about 40 miles wide....:).

Good luck down/over there.

Nut

 

[mappy]

Just now, hurricane1091 said:

No need for sass, just pointing out that how many times do we see people call for totals in these situation, and then see the result be half of those totals and everyone left feeling upset. Changeover occurs later than people  want and they start getting antsy, sticking naturally a problem, etc. Some will win, some will lose. Brace yourself, the slop is coming.

Sass is my middle name. You are just repeating what everyone already knows though. Besides, us here in MD, DC and VA, are well aware of how these situations work out. Not sure about South Jersey. 

Just now, pasnownut said:

Thanks.  Sounds like the "line" is about 40 miles wide....:).

Good luck down/over there.

Nut

 

We are in the same boat pretty much. I'm a tad colder at onset, mainly because i have 300' or so extra feet of elevation than Lancaster does. But, I'm cool with where we stand right now. Quick flip and we should be golden. Well, as golden as we can be this winter.  

[CAPE]

18 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

I don't know why any of us should be worried really. We'll all be in the 50's Saturday thru Monday, so whether you get 6" or 1", it's all gone before the end of the weekend. 

And notice I never even mentioned the warm ground melting from underneath or sun angle. Lol

Eh its good just from a numbers perspective. So good luck up your way. I have had more snow than most so I am not sweating this, and rain or rain/snow mix is most likely here. I just hope they don't blast the roads with brine and salt but I know they will. Just cleaned that crap off my car from last week.

[sauss06]

Just now, mappy said:

Sass is my middle name. You are just repeating what everyone already knows though. Besides, us here in MD, DC and VA, are well aware of how these situations work out. Not sure about South Jersey. 

We are in the same boat pretty much. I'm a tad colder at onset, mainly because i have 300' or so extra feet of elevation than Lancaster does. But, I'm cool with where we stand right now. Quick flip and we should be golden. Well, as golden as we can be this winter.  

can you do me? 

[pasnownut]

Just now, mappy said:

Sass is my middle name. You are just repeating what everyone already knows though. Besides, us here in MD, DC and VA, are well aware of how these situations work out. Not sure about South Jersey. 

We are in the same boat pretty much. I'm a tad colder at onset, mainly because i have 300' or so extra feet of elevation than Lancaster does. But, I'm cool with where we stand right now. Quick flip and we should be golden. Well, as golden as we can be this winter.  

Key word being "quick".  I cant tell you how many raindrops i've stared at over my decades of existance waiting for catpaws.  Its a painful deal.  I'm glad the Euro shows the colder column, but as the GFS just ticked north (and is warmer at mid levels due to being stronger) at 6z im worried that were 1 tick away from....well you know...

 

[pasnownut]

1 minute ago, sauss06 said:

can you do me? 

LMAO.....

 

[WinterWxLuvr]

3 minutes ago, sauss06 said:

can you do me? 

 

[Scraff]

If all else fails on this storm (not saying it will), but at least we have another opportunity potentially late next week. Back on topic--maybe if we don't warm as much as anticipated tomorrow, getting our temps back to respectability for snow won't be as difficult. I say this since we have seen this before right? So I'm now also rooting for a bust on high temps tomorrow. 

3rd cup of coffee just kicked in...

[WinterWxLuvr]

Not to rain, or snow, on anyone's parade, but is anyone else's enthusiasm dampened by the warm temps leading in and the warm temps on the other side?  

I suppose it would be nice to see, if it's not 4am, some heavy snow falling, but were temps going to be cold afterward, I'd be much more hyped about this.

Whatever, I hope all get what would give them joy.  God knows we all need a little after this god awful 2 year stretch.

[mappy]

9 minutes ago, sauss06 said:

can you do me? 

 you'll have to be more specific with your location. 

8 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

Key word being "quick".  I cant tell you how many raindrops i've stared at over my decades of existance waiting for catpaws.  Its a painful deal.  I'm glad the Euro shows the colder column, but as the GFS just ticked north (and is warmer at mid levels due to being stronger) at 6z im worried that were 1 tick away from....well you know...

 

shhhh, the weather gods will hear you