BTRWx Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 1 minute ago, yoda said: We can definitely work with that! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 1 minute ago, WxWatcher007 said: Temps chasing precip bothers me but I don't think we're going to have a choice this time around. We're just going to have to hope and pray. Still snowing a bit at the next panel. Overnight qpf too! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 7, 2017 Author Share Posted February 7, 2017 1 minute ago, WxWatcher007 said: Temps chasing precip bothers me but I don't think we're going to have a choice this time around. We're just going to have to hope and pray. Still snowing a bit at the next panel. Looks like everyone gets in on decent snow accums if we take EURO face value... 2-4 seems doable Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 Oops Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowman. Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 Just now, psuhoffman said: Oops I know you like this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 Just now, Snowman. said: I know you like this run. Sure but I said I'm not getting to into details until tomorrow and I meant it. This run could be pretty good in the cities if the rates overcome marginal temps. U.K. Icon and euro all on the same idea of a qpf bomb over us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 7, 2017 Author Share Posted February 7, 2017 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: Sure but I said I'm not getting to into details until tomorrow and I meant it. This run could be pretty good in the cities if the rates overcome marginal temps. U.K. Icon and euro all on the same idea of a qpf bomb over us. And JMA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 The mornings NAM suite is rolling in. 3K is still rolling in but both the 12 and 4 K have shifted the snowfall field roughly 50 miles south. Look at quantities with caution especially on the southern portions where temps will be very marginal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 19 minutes ago, showmethesnow said: The mornings NAM suite is rolling in. 3K is still rolling in but both the 12 and 4 K have shifted the snowfall field roughly 50 miles south. Look at quantities with caution especially on the southern portions where temps will be very marginal. Starting to look a bit like 12/25/02 to me, with the Euro the best solution for mby. Bust potential is very high with the very, very tight cutoff. I need another 20+ miles to get that warm and fuzzy feeling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 6z Gfs crushes NE. I can see where this may be going. Still time for the I95 crowd south of 40N, but I think we've seen this northern creep picture before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 2 minutes ago, mitchnick said: Starting to look a bit like 12/25/02 to me, with the Euro the best solution for mby. Bust potential is very high with the very, very tight cutoff. I need another 20+ miles to get that warm and fuzzy feeling. I have also had a nasty feeling for a while now that there is going to be a severe cutoff on this from the have and have nots. Haven't really had a chance to look into the overnight runs quite yet but some of the things I saw on yesterdays runs left me a little troubled for those to the south. It has all the earmarks of what I saw time and again growing up where your typical spots N and W would jackpot and those of us closer to the cities would be pissed waiting for the promised change over to occur. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 11 minutes ago, showmethesnow said: I have also had a nasty feeling for a while now that there is going to be a severe cutoff on this from the have and have nots. Haven't really had a chance to look into the overnight runs quite yet but some of the things I saw on yesterdays runs left me a little troubled for those to the south. It has all the earmarks of what I saw time and again growing up where your typical spots N and W would jackpot and those of us closer to the cities would be pissed waiting for the promised change over to occur. Well, I'm sure my comment about the northern creep may be poo-poo'ed by some claiming the Nam has come south, but as you state, reality and model forecasts are often 2 different things in these types of scenarios. It's just a darn shame that cold air doesn't come in quicker. Welp, we have to ride the Euro and hope for no more ticks north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 14 minutes ago, mitchnick said: 6z Gfs crushes NE. I can see where this may be going. Still time for the I95 crowd south of 40N, but I think we've seen this northern creep picture before. For what its worth we do better with the snowfall maps. The 500's improved with a deeper and sharper through though I know many out there disagree with me and don't want to see that. But I think that will be the only chance that those in the cities and south will have. Though initially the heights will rise a touch in front I think that gets more then offset with the quicker crash in heights on the backside. And lets face it, the front end of this storm will most likely be a throwaway for those in the cities no matter what happens so let's try to salvage the back half with a quicker height drop. Otherwise they will most likely be waiting for that changeover that never occurs. Been there, done that too many times to count. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 11 minutes ago, showmethesnow said: For what its worth we do better with the snowfall maps. The 500's improved with a deeper and sharper through though I know many out there disagree with me and don't want to see that. But I think that will be the only chance that those in the cities and south will have. Though initially the heights will rise a touch in front I think that gets more then offset with the quicker crash in heights on the backside. And lets face it, the front end of this storm will most likely be a throwaway for those in the cities no matter what happens so let's try to salvage the back half with a quicker height drop. Otherwise they will most likely be waiting for that changeover that never occurs. Been there, done that too many times to count. What Gfs snowfall map are talking about? I know this map includes snowfall for Massachusetts on north for today and tonight, but 40N is still looking better than us on this map. http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs®ion=neus&pkg=asnow&runtime=2017020706&fh=54&xpos=0&ypos=357 EDIT: Go to 66 hours on above map Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 15 minutes ago, mitchnick said: Well, I'm sure my comment about the northern creep may be poo-poo'ed by some claiming the Nam has come south, but as you state, reality and model forecasts are often 2 different things in these types of scenarios. It's just a darn shame that cold air doesn't come in quicker. Welp, we have to ride the Euro and hope for no more ticks north. Are you talking a northern creep in temps that support snow? Or the storm itself? Because the first I agree wholeheartedly on the second not-so-much. Trough placement and axis would argue against the surface low being able to come much farther north on its track until after it passes our region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 3 minutes ago, showmethesnow said: Are you talking a northern creep in temps that support snow? Or the storm itself? Because the first I agree wholeheartedly on the second not-so-much. Trough placement and axis would argue against the surface low being able to come much farther north on its track until after it passes our region. Temps and resulting snowfall. This started out a southern system and now our north is increasingly the better spot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 1 minute ago, mitchnick said: What Gfs snowfall map are talking about? I know this map includes snowfall for Massachusetts on north for today and tonight, but 40N is still looking better than us on this map. http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs®ion=neus&pkg=asnow&runtime=2017020706&fh=66&xpos=0&ypos=357 Was just a quick comparison between the 00z and the 06z from wweatherbell. To be taken with a grain of salt of course. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 1 minute ago, mitchnick said: Temps and resulting snowfall. That is a very real possibility. But after just having a chance to glance over the overnight Euro and GFS I do like what I see with the 500's. We see a little more dig and a slightly sharper trough and I think we are seeing the results with better snowfall output. While everybody will be rooting for that flatter trough with less dig i will be in my own corner rooting otherwise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 11 minutes ago, showmethesnow said: Was just a quick comparison between the 00z and the 06z from wweatherbell. To be taken with a grain of salt of course. No, I was referring to New England. Yes, 6z is better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 6z RGEM has a 998 slp over the NC/VA border at 48 with 850s just crossing 95 and 925s not far behind. 2m in the low 40s along 95 and mid 30s N/W. extrapolating the run, it'd be a good hit especially for the favored areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 4 hours ago, psuhoffman said: Oops This will be the storm with the north trend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 The Euro ensembles aren't of much use now but I know that many like to hear their snowfall output anyway. Mean snowfall through the entire region has increased by roughly a half inch. We now see the 2 inch line south of DC by 20? miles. Dc sits at 2 1/2, Baltimore has 3 just skirting to the north and west with a pocket of 3 1/2 inches in N Balt county. Control is a nice hit with 4-5 inches through the DC/Balt region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 Looks good where I'm sitting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thanatos_I_Am Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 Didn't see this posted Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterymix Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 Best wish casting in about a eleven months. Seriously, I'm riding this train and hoping many here get 3+. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 Wow Ukie could be pushing double digits in NE MD. Shocker. Ravens gets pummeled again! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 So today we feel good about QPF, but need to root for better thermal profiles? Just need my cheering interests in order. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 1 minute ago, Scraff said: So today we feel good about QPF, but need to root for better thermal profiles? Just need my cheering interests in order. Always. Temps always at least for a lot of us. That RGEM was quite the morning eye opener Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 1 minute ago, losetoa6 said: Rgem temps looking good for most extrapolating for sure RGEM has performed well but I remember it was too quick with the cold a few weeks ago when D.C. got an inch. With that said, it has a great look especially for you and favored areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quasievil Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 2 hours ago, mitchnick said: Well, I'm sure my comment about the northern creep may be poo-poo'ed by some claiming the Nam has come south, but as you state, reality and model forecasts are often 2 different things in these types of scenarios. It's just a darn shame that cold air doesn't come in quicker. Welp, we have to ride the Euro and hope for no more ticks north. I agree completely mitchnick, we've seen this before. Those who have seen snow this year, will get it, those who haven't... Well you get it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.