February 8-9 Cold Rain Event

[Fozz]

3 minutes ago, BaltimoreWxGuy said:

If any of you didn't notice, the NWS downgraded the watches to advisories with wording of 1-3 inches for the northern tier. I think we are putting way too much stock into these pretty little snow maps 

I think they'll upgrade to warnings at least in the northern tier. 

[BaltimoreWxGuy]

2 minutes ago, yoda said:

2-4

You are free to skip them then

1-3 for the counties north of Baltimore. Should have clarified 

[Maestrobjwa]

Ah, these kind of misses (where further north get more) are the ones that really hurt for us Baltimore folk! Time to look beyond this one (although perhaps a slushy inch or two isn't out of the question?

[mappy]

2 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

Ha. I will hand over the controls. I should probably do some real work anyways. Spending too much time on a 2 inch storm at this point.

 no, actually please carry on. then mattie won't troll me.

But, cobb has been switching the runs around. So if you want to see 06z runs, you have to use the 00z/12z drop down and vice versa. 

[RDM]

ECMWF9K shows the Low just lightly ENE of Richmond at 03:00 local with temps near freezing in the beltway and large precip field still to the W and NW of I-95 DC-BAL 

GFS22K for the same time shows the Low further north near Fredericksburg and the freezing line near the Mason Dixon with a smaller and less intense precip field

The NAM5k splits the location of the Low between Richmond and Fredericksburg with the freezing line approaching NW MOCO and a large precip field extending to the W and NW of DC with what appears to be banding, along with a big band S and SW of DC.

Edit - all three have the heaviest precip out of DC by 06:00 local

All the above from Windytv (a free site so I assume it's ok to link?) - https://www.windytv.com/overlays?namConus,rain,37.931,-78.135,7

Assume the data is legit, but not experienced enough to evaluate the dependencies nor accuracy of each respective model at this range.

 

[Paleocene]

Just now, WxWatcher007 said:

Ukie looks essentially unchanged to me. I hate their maps.

Mildly off topic but does anyone know why the UKMET isn't on TT? I agree, the maps are pretty hard to read. 

 

[cae]

12 minutes ago, Paleocene said:

Mildly off topic but does anyone know why the UKMET isn't on TT? I agree, the maps are pretty hard to read. 

 

I don't know, but if you look at the "Quebec" map on meteocentre it covers most of Maryland.

[Paleocene]

4 minutes ago, cae said:

I don't know, but if you look at the "Quebec" map on meteocentre it covers most of Maryland.

 

Thx. Temp map not great, freezing line well north of GFS at 12z tomorrow.

 

[WinterWxLuvr]

42 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

12Z GFS Cobb data:

KMRB:

170209/0300Z  21  07005KT  43.4F  RAIN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.057    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.06    0|  0|100
170209/0600Z  24  02009KT  39.3F  RAIN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.394    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.45    0|  0|100
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
170209/0900Z  27  35010KT  36.4F  RASN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.305    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.76   12|  0| 88
170209/1200Z  30  34009KT  32.3F  RASN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.014    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.77   88|  0| 12
170209/1500Z  33  32012KT  30.5F  SNOW   16:1| 0.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.020   16:1|  0.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.79  100|  0|  0
170209/1800Z  36  31013KT  30.8F          0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000   16:1|  0.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.79    0|  0|  0
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
170209/2100Z  39  31014KT  28.7F  SNOW   10:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.015   13:1|  0.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.81  100|  0|  0

DCA

170209/0300Z  21  07010KT  46.8F  RAIN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.030    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.03    0|  0|100
170209/0600Z  24  09010KT  45.9F  RAIN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.099    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.13    0|  0|100
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
170209/0900Z  27  36021KT  40.4F  RAIN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.459    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.59    0|  0|100
170209/1200Z  30  35017KT  33.7F  RASN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.052    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.64   68|  0| 32
170209/1500Z  33  34017KT  33.3F          0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.64    0|  0|  0
170209/1800Z  36  32017KT  33.9F  RASN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.013    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.65   66|  0| 34
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
170209/2100Z  39  31015KT  33.2F  RASN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.008    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.66   73|  0| 27
170210/0000Z  42  31013KT  27.0F  SNOW   10:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.010   10:1|  0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.67  100|  0|  0

IAD

170209/0000Z  18  02005KT  50.8F  RAIN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.007    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.01    0|  0|100
170209/0300Z  21  08006KT  45.6F  RAIN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.053    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.06    0|  0|100
170209/0600Z  24  04007KT  43.1F  RAIN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.130    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.19    0|  0|100
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
170209/0900Z  27  01010KT  38.9F  RAIN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.456    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.65    0|  0|100
170209/1200Z  30  35012KT  33.3F  RASN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.022    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.67   72|  0| 28
170209/1500Z  33  34012KT  32.6F  RASN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.010    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.68   81|  0| 19
170209/1800Z  36  32014KT  33.0F  RASN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.012    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.69   76|  0| 24
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
170209/2100Z  39  31013KT  31.5F  SNOW   22:1| 0.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.012   22:1|  0.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.70  100|  0|  0

BWI

170209/0300Z  21  05009KT  44.1F  RAIN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.059    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.06    0|  0|100
170209/0600Z  24  06009KT  42.9F  RAIN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.127    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.19    0|  0|100
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
170209/0900Z  27  01024KT  38.0F  RAIN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.422    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.61    0|  0|100
170209/1200Z  30  35022KT  32.1F  SNOW   12:1| 1.8|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.150   12:1|  1.8|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.76  100|  0|  0
170209/1500Z  33  34022KT  30.1F  SNOW   10:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.009   12:1|  1.9|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.77  100|  0|  0
170209/1800Z  36  32020KT  31.9F          0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000   12:1|  1.9|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.77    0|  0|  0
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
170209/2100Z  39  32017KT  31.5F  SNOW   10:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.007   12:1|  2.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.77  100|  0|  0
170210/0000Z  42  30022KT  27.6F  FZDZ    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.02|| 0.017   12:1|  2.0|| 0.00|| 0.02|| 0.79    0|  0|100

If I am reading that correctly, that's 0.5" of accumulated snow at MRB.  Total.

[clskinsfan]

Temps down 2 degrees in the past hour in Winchester. Here comes the cold air:

[nj2va]

15z HRRR has the rain/snow line cutting NE to SW through Loudoun County at 4a with heavy precip overhead.  Temps still in the mid 40s in DC at 4a

[MN Transplant]

Our GFS problem:

700 VV - awesome, we'd love to see this in any storm

 

Problem, here is the sounding at that time for DCA.

 

[mitchnick]

3 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

Temps down 2 degrees in the past hour in Winchester. Here comes the cold air:

A good bit of the modeled cooling will come from the bombing low and heavy precip. This is very marginal, as all know, so the fact that the cold air advection is not what we want to see doesn't necessarily mean we're sunk. At least not yet!

[WinterWxLuvr]

Somebody mentioned the WWA vs the WSW.  I notice that LWX has as their likely snowfall for Martinsburg and Hagerstown as 4-6".  That normally would probably warrant a WSW at this time frame.  This tells me that LWX is hedging their bets on this one and aren't really very confident in that type of snow total.

At this point I really don't know what to expect.  My instinct says that it is just simply too warm and that we end up on the very short end of the snow totals, but then you have some of the models, including the euro, showing much more.  So I guess at this point it's just wait and see. Hope it happens before 11pm or I am very likely to miss whatever happens.

[clskinsfan]

Just now, mitchnick said:

A good bit of the modeled cooling will come from the bombing low and heavy precip. This is very marginal, as all know, so the fact that the cold air advection is not what we want to see doesn't necessarily mean we're sunk. At least not yet!

I think If we can get the air mass down to the high 40's before dark. It would help a lot. 

[WinterWxLuvr]

Just now, clskinsfan said:

I think If we can get the air mass down to the high 40's before dark. It would help a lot. 

It's currently 41 in Johnstown Pa.  Surely to god we can get to the upper 40's by dark.

[clskinsfan]

Just now, WinterWxLuvr said:

It's currently 41 in Johnstown Pa.  Surely to god we can get to the upper 40's by dark.

I hope your right. It is encouraging to see the temps falling at mid day for sure. And I agree with your earlier post. It really is wait and see at this point. Once again an interesting weather situation to watch regardless of the outcome. I am walking around in shorts and a t shirt today. Would be pretty cool to wake up to a couple of inches of snow in the morning.

[RichmondTarHeel]

Should we start an Obs thread, or wait for the 12z Euro?

[DC2Winston]

It is good to see wind starting shift to WNW and NW here in downtown D.C. Been watching the flags, old school. Perhaps temps will start to trickle down...

[WxUSAF]

New thread for obs and short range after the euro.

[RDM]

NWS just extended the "Tan Area" on their map denoting potentially Hazardous Weather much further south.  Now down to below Fredericksburg and covering all the MD Western Shore.  Interesting they dropped that area this AM and then filled it back in again.  Probably nothing, but they are typically more hesitant to delete/add like that...

[RichmondTarHeel]

Off topic - best place to see a map of current temps?  Preferably with the ability to loop.

[midatlanticweather]

20 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

Temps down 2 degrees in the past hour in Winchester. Here comes the cold air:

 

 

Dropped two as well with a north wind! 

 

[stormtracker]

5 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

New thread for obs and short range after the euro.

And storm mode with that one.

[clskinsfan]

3 minutes ago, NovaTarHeel said:

Off topic - best place to see a map of current temps?  Preferably with the ability to loop.

I use this one. It updates every 60 minutes

http://weather.unisys.com/surface/sfc_map.php?inv=0&t=cur&region=ne

[TSG]

1 minute ago, NovaTarHeel said:

Off topic - best place to see a map of current temps?  Preferably with the ability to loop.

I'm a big fan of WeatherBug's interface although I have noticed the map sometimes lags behind ground readings.  

https://weather.weatherbug.com/maps/?center=38.8824812,-75.3826904,7&layerId=Contour.Observed.Temperature

[BTRWx]

2 minutes ago, NovaTarHeel said:

Off topic - best place to see a map of current temps?  Preferably with the ability to loop.

spc meso page! http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/new/viewsector.php?sector=17#

[nj2va]

Just now, WxWatcher007 said:

73 at DCA and 70 at home. Dew starting to creep down though...

16z HRRR drops us 10 degrees between 5 and 7pm.  We need a few more of those to get to freezing.

[mappy]

3 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

And storm mode with that one.

thank you!

[BTRWx]

The wpc front is already near the eastern slopes of the mountains! http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/html/sfc-zoom.php