February 8-9 Cold Rain Event

[WxUSAF]

This storm looks epic for Philly. Someone mentioned thunder snow and it's certainly possible up that way. Not sure about our area. Best chance for NE MD where frontogenesis and lift is best as the storm bombs out. 

[Kleimax]

It's 65 degrees right now in Owings Mills

[clskinsfan]

Not a lot of cold air until you get well north.

Edit: I dont know why it keeps pasting the 8:00 image. I am copying the 10:00 one. You can go look for yourselves I guess. Really no cold air until you get into northern PA and OH.

[yoda]

3 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

CMC starting to look more GFS like with snowfall location/amounts.

Its because the 2mT line lags behind a bit... move that a few miles east and the 12z CMC looks like the 0z CMC

[CAPE]

Just now, WxUSAF said:

This storm looks epic for Philly. Someone mentioned thunder snow and it's certainly possible up that way. Not sure about our area. Best chance for NE MD where frontogenesis and lift is best as the storm bombs out. 

Mount Holly mentioned thunder snow in their morning AFD.

[Kleimax]

CMC looks warmer than GFS @ 12z tomorrow 

[psuhoffman]

35 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said:

I like your spot the best for the forum to see a warning type event. PSU too given his elevation, but you'll be closer to the main deformation axis once the storm rounds the bend at OCMD. It's a very tight forecast for many in here and I'm sticking to my guns with an I-70 on north dividing line and elevated areas. That being said, trends are a bit more favorable further south so far, but it's still a razor thin edge. GFS looks more like Euro now and even more juiced up. It's going to be a fun storm. Great meteorology at work the next 36 hours. 

I've seen this setup plenty and typically the 1000-1100 ft ridge in northeast Carroll county helps provide enough lift to enhance precip here and then it carries east. Just west of me totals decrease dramatically as you head into the valley region east of the catoctins 

[Paleocene]

3 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

This storm looks epic for Philly. Someone mentioned thunder snow and it's certainly possible up that way. Not sure about our area. Best chance for NE MD where frontogenesis and lift is best as the storm bombs out. 

Dare we say, NE MD pummelled?

I prefer the TT CMC map. That is probably not going to pan out.

[WxUSAF]

Winds have shifted to the NW. Temps should start to fall slowly now. Only 38 degrees to go to freezing!

[yoda]

Just now, Paleocene said:

Dare we say, NE MD pummelled?

I prefer the TT CMC map. That is probably not going to pan out.

Thats the 00z one

[mappy]

1 minute ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Mount Holly mentioned thunder snow in their morning AFD.

https://twitter.com/wxmvpete

some good explanation of the thundersnow potential for the philly area

[BTRWx]

2 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Winds have shifted to the NW. Temps should start to fall slowly now. Only 38 degrees to go to freezing!

The 4km NAM at least shows dps starting to drop right around midday.

[Paleocene]

Just now, yoda said:

Thats the 00z one

thx - caught and fixed

[RDM]

68 here just NW of Vienna.  Nice outside atm.  NWS lowered the WWA boundary more south to cover top half of MOCO and NWern 1/2 of Loudoun CO - almost to Leesburg.  Dropped/reduced the area of tan for Hazardous Weather, which had previously extended down below Dale City.

[CAPE]

Just now, yoda said:

Its because the 2mT line lags behind a bit... move that a few miles east and the 12z CMC looks like the 0z CMC

I think the more likely trend is the opposite. Its warm out there. Yeah the low is going to deepen and temps will crash but thats going to work out better a bit further up the coast where the best lift will be coinciding with colder temps..

[mappy]

2 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Winds have shifted to the NW. Temps should start to fall slowly now. Only 38 degrees to go to freezing!

still west winds at my house, temp 61

[clskinsfan]

12Z GFS Cobb data:

KMRB:

170209/0300Z  21  07005KT  43.4F  RAIN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.057    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.06    0|  0|100
170209/0600Z  24  02009KT  39.3F  RAIN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.394    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.45    0|  0|100
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
170209/0900Z  27  35010KT  36.4F  RASN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.305    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.76   12|  0| 88
170209/1200Z  30  34009KT  32.3F  RASN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.014    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.77   88|  0| 12
170209/1500Z  33  32012KT  30.5F  SNOW   16:1| 0.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.020   16:1|  0.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.79  100|  0|  0
170209/1800Z  36  31013KT  30.8F          0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000   16:1|  0.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.79    0|  0|  0
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
170209/2100Z  39  31014KT  28.7F  SNOW   10:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.015   13:1|  0.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.81  100|  0|  0

DCA

170209/0300Z  21  07010KT  46.8F  RAIN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.030    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.03    0|  0|100
170209/0600Z  24  09010KT  45.9F  RAIN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.099    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.13    0|  0|100
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
170209/0900Z  27  36021KT  40.4F  RAIN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.459    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.59    0|  0|100
170209/1200Z  30  35017KT  33.7F  RASN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.052    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.64   68|  0| 32
170209/1500Z  33  34017KT  33.3F          0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.64    0|  0|  0
170209/1800Z  36  32017KT  33.9F  RASN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.013    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.65   66|  0| 34
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
170209/2100Z  39  31015KT  33.2F  RASN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.008    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.66   73|  0| 27
170210/0000Z  42  31013KT  27.0F  SNOW   10:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.010   10:1|  0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.67  100|  0|  0

IAD

170209/0000Z  18  02005KT  50.8F  RAIN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.007    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.01    0|  0|100
170209/0300Z  21  08006KT  45.6F  RAIN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.053    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.06    0|  0|100
170209/0600Z  24  04007KT  43.1F  RAIN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.130    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.19    0|  0|100
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
170209/0900Z  27  01010KT  38.9F  RAIN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.456    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.65    0|  0|100
170209/1200Z  30  35012KT  33.3F  RASN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.022    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.67   72|  0| 28
170209/1500Z  33  34012KT  32.6F  RASN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.010    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.68   81|  0| 19
170209/1800Z  36  32014KT  33.0F  RASN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.012    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.69   76|  0| 24
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
170209/2100Z  39  31013KT  31.5F  SNOW   22:1| 0.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.012   22:1|  0.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.70  100|  0|  0

BWI

170209/0300Z  21  05009KT  44.1F  RAIN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.059    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.06    0|  0|100
170209/0600Z  24  06009KT  42.9F  RAIN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.127    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.19    0|  0|100
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
170209/0900Z  27  01024KT  38.0F  RAIN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.422    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.61    0|  0|100
170209/1200Z  30  35022KT  32.1F  SNOW   12:1| 1.8|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.150   12:1|  1.8|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.76  100|  0|  0
170209/1500Z  33  34022KT  30.1F  SNOW   10:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.009   12:1|  1.9|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.77  100|  0|  0
170209/1800Z  36  32020KT  31.9F          0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000   12:1|  1.9|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.77    0|  0|  0
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
170209/2100Z  39  32017KT  31.5F  SNOW   10:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.007   12:1|  2.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.77  100|  0|  0
170210/0000Z  42  30022KT  27.6F  FZDZ    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.02|| 0.017   12:1|  2.0|| 0.00|| 0.02|| 0.79    0|  0|100

[clskinsfan]

[yoda]

06z JMA looks interesting for DCA... over 20mm of QPF, but its hard to tell when its snow

[cae]

11 hours ago, cae said:

Looking at SLP placement at 36 hours, tonight's runs from fastest to slowest are roughly:

GFS
NAMs / ICON
UKMET / RGEM
GGEM

The slower runs are better for us.  The 12z Euro run had the low in a similar location as the UKMET / RGEM's 00z runs. 

The above post is from last night's 00z runs.  In today's 12z runs so far, it looks like everything is converging near the UKMET / RGEM / Euro solution.  Not a big surprise.

I wonder if the warm "bust" for today's temps is helping with tomorrow's snow totals.  Looking through a few of last night's runs, it seems that the models that had warmer temps today also had a slower / snowier storm tomorrow.  Maybe the same factors that are leading to warmer temps are also contributing to a stronger offshore low, which is slowing down the trailing low and pulling in more cold air tomorrow.

[gymengineer]

5 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

12Z GFS Cobb data:

6Z run you mean?

[BTRWx]

2 minutes ago, cae said:

The above post is from last night's 00z runs.  In today's 12z runs so far, it looks like everything is converging near the UKMET / RGEM / Euro solution.  Not a big surprise.

I wonder if the warm "bust" for today's temps is helping with tomorrow's snow totals.  Looking through a few of last night's runs, it seems that the models that had warmer temps today also had a slower / snowier storm tomorrow.  Maybe the same factors that are leading to warmer temps are also contributing to a stronger offshore low, which is slowing down the trailing low and pulling in more cold air tomorrow.

Interesting perspective!

[BaltimoreWxGuy]

If any of you didn't notice, the NWS downgraded the watches to advisories with wording of 1-3 inches for the northern tier. I think we are putting way too much stock into these pretty little snow maps 

[clskinsfan]

5 minutes ago, gymengineer said:

6Z run you mean?

No 12Z. 

http://www.meteor.iastate.edu/~ckarsten/cobb/cobb.php?model=gfs&site=kbwi

[mappy]

11 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

northwest wind here with temp dropping....60/46

thanks, means its coming my way. 

[Interstate]

1 minute ago, BaltimoreWxGuy said:

If any of you didn't notice, the NWS downgraded the watches to advisories with wording of 1-3 inches for the northern tier. I think we are putting way too much stock into these pretty little snow maps 

New England won the super bowl...lol... Just kidding

[Superstorm]

thanks, means its coming my way. 

NW in Lancaster so right in doorsteps.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[yoda]

2 minutes ago, BaltimoreWxGuy said:

If any of you didn't notice, the NWS downgraded the watches to advisories with wording of 1-3 inches for the northern tier. I think we are putting way too much stock into these pretty little snow maps 

2-4

You are free to skip them then

[mappy]

1 minute ago, clskinsfan said:

No 12Z. 

http://www.meteor.iastate.edu/~ckarsten/cobb/cobb.php?model=gfs&site=kbwi

Check the list itself. Cobb has been screwy lately switching things up. 00z on the drop down is actually 06z/18z on the actual list below

 

you really should let the cobb expert do this  

[clskinsfan]

Just now, mappy said:

Check the list itself. Cobb has been screwy lately switching things up. 00z on the drop down is actually 06z/12z on the actual list below

 

you really should let the cobb expert do this  

Ha. I will hand over the controls. I should probably do some real work anyways. Spending too much time on a 2 inch storm at this point.