psuhoffman Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 14 minutes ago, RUMG11 said: RGEM gives me hope. If the Euro holds a more southern expanded percip shield and keeps temps lower to the south I'll feel a bit better. Before anyone chimes in with the "were too close for the euro" crap a couple weeks ago during that warm coastal the high res nam models and gfs insisted there would be a deform band overnight up here to drop snow the day before and the euro was rock solid showing that dry slot and nothing overnight. It nailed the meso features from 12 hours out when the high res models failed. The euro can be wrong but tossing it at any range is risky. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 2 minutes ago, Deck Pic said: GFS .5+ qpf for you between 9z-15z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 6 minutes ago, Fozz said: I believe it was Jan 2008, but yeah that one hurt for the NYC crowd. I think you have a good shot at seeing 5", but most of the county probably won't (unless there's a nice shift south), so I'm guessing the made it an advisory since most of the people live in the southern part of northern Baltimore county (which LWX defines as pretty much anyone north or west of 695). that makes sense. thanks, fozz. 2 minutes ago, RidingTheModelWithMostSnow said: These maps are based on snowfall and not what is actually on the ground. Also based upon 10:1 ratio. Someone correct me if I am wrong. what maps? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kleimax Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 Anyone know about the possibility of thunder snow with this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUMG11 Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 The R/S southern ticks are now a trend imo... the slower this thing is modeled, the more time the cold air has to rush in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 1 minute ago, mappy said: that makes sense. thanks, fozz. what maps? I spoke just before seeing the GFS Now I think we're getting a warning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 2 minutes ago, Deck Pic said: The wxbell maps are going to be so dirty.... GFS gives me 1.25" of liquid...lol... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 Just now, Fozz said: I spoke just before seeing the GFS Now I think we're getting a warning. If Euro is equally wet, I agree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ErinInTheSky Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 Just now, mappy said: If Euro is equally wet, I agree. The Euro is rarely as wet as the GFS. But i am starting to get a good feeling about this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 11 minutes ago, mappy said: It wouldn't surprise me if they upgraded to a warning later, maybe after all 12z runs. I just think some of us could see 5" out of this. Not surprised about the advisory to parts of MoCo/HoCo down into VA. I like your spot the best for the forum to see a warning type event. PSU too given his elevation, but you'll be closer to the main deformation axis once the storm rounds the bend at OCMD. It's a very tight forecast for many in here and I'm sticking to my guns with an I-70 on north dividing line and elevated areas. That being said, trends are a bit more favorable further south so far, but it's still a razor thin edge. GFS looks more like Euro now and even more juiced up. It's going to be a fun storm. Great meteorology at work the next 36 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PivotPoint Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 6 minutes ago, AmericanWxFreak said: Hi It doesn't matter what the 2m temps are in that panel. That is pure rippage and WILL accumulate with those rates. That's "crushing"... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 Just now, supernovasky said: *not to be taken seriously, ratio's will not be this high* Just now, ravensrule said: The Euro is rarely as wet as the GFS. But i am starting to get a good feeling about this. can you imagine if it does end up equally as wet! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paleocene Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 GFS now has the freezing line roughly at the south side of the beltway by 12z tomorrow. It's been dropping every run - yesterday this time it was along I-70ish. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 1 minute ago, MillvilleWx said: I like your spot the best for the forum to see a warning type event. PSU too given his elevation, but you'll be closer to the main deformation axis once the storm rounds the bend at OCMD. It's a very tight forecast for many in here and I'm sticking to my guns with an I-70 on north dividing line and elevated areas. That being said, trends are a bit more favorable further south so far, but it's still a razor thin edge. GFS looks more like Euro now and even more juiced up. It's going to be a fun storm. Great meteorology at work the next 36 hours. keep talking dirty. i like it. Seriously though, thanks for the insight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 From what I can tell. The GFS looks like about 6-7 hours of heavy snow out here. It definitely gets the surface temps down much faster than the NAM. Good run for everyone really. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 4 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: .5+ qpf for you between 9z-15z. Problem is most of that falls between 9z and 11z...and the flip for me probably happens around 10z/11z....the implication hasn't really changed here in DC...A burst of heavy wet snow at the end...whether it is cosmetic or dumps 1-2" is yet to be seen. GFS would suggest 1-2" given it is such a dynamic moisture bomb. I think for me that is pretty much the upside. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 Just now, mappy said: *not to be taken seriously, ratio's will not be this high* can you imagine if it does end up equally as wet! That would be amazing. If Matt does another while doing the Euro PBP it would be awesome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thanatos_I_Am Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 12z Experimental HRRR Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RichmondTarHeel Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 I may be on the far southern fringe of this bad boy, so I'll be turning on my AC and opening the doors to try and help cool it down. Plz plz plz. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUMG11 Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 1 minute ago, Paleocene said: GFS now has the freezing line roughly at the south side of the beltway by 12z tomorrow. It's been dropping every run - yesterday this time it was along I-70ish. This is the most important take away. The trend is our friend. Keep that R/S moving south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 18 minutes ago, mappy said: It wouldn't surprise me if they upgraded to a warning later, maybe after all 12z runs. I just think some of us could see 5" out of this. Not surprised about the advisory to parts of MoCo/HoCo down into VA. I like when the lowball is. Tends to work out that way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ErinInTheSky Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 Regular ratios Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 6 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: GFS finally came through. Need euro love now. Excellent stuff. The thing is, the Euro always kinda held on to this solution of colder/wetter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 1 minute ago, stormtracker said: The thing is, the Euro always kinda held on to this solution of colder/wetter. Yes. I've been making that point this AM. The Euro has been a rock for a few days now for the beltways with showing some snow. We are not used to it being Dr. Yes, but probably should have been putting more weight in how steadfast it has been. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 12 minutes ago, RidingTheModelWithMostSnow said: These maps are based on snowfall and not what is actually on the ground. Also based upon 10:1 ratio. Someone correct me if I am wrong. You need to have snow to get ratios... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ErinInTheSky Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 2" in the DC, 4" in the immediate northern counties. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 The GFS sure makes the forecast a tough one. It gives 0.60" in the 3-hr period ending at 12Z. If we have a 2 hour window of snow with S+ for a couple of hours then we would see a couple of inches. Hate foecasts like this. Lighten the precip a bit and the temp doesn't fall as much and you get now accumulation, sort of like the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
feloniousq Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 The WAMU announcer guy was just talking about Winter Storm Watches for the area overnight. For whom, exactly, within range of that station? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 Just now, usedtobe said: The GFS sure makes the forecast a tough one. It gives 0.60" in the 3-hr period ending at 12Z. If we have a 2 hour window of snow with S+ for a couple of hours then we would see a couple of inches. Hate foecasts like this. Lighten the precip a bit and the temp doesn't fall as much and you get now accumulation, sort of like the NAM. So you're saying there's a chance... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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