mappy Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 1 minute ago, NorthArlington101 said: Take it, cut it in half and run! FTFY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 8, 2017 Author Share Posted February 8, 2017 Just now, mappy said: FTFY I get FYP, but what is FTFY? For the fooking... what? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 Just now, yoda said: I get FYP, but what is FTFY? For the fooking... what? fixed that for you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 Amazingly, the RGEM gets it below freezing by 12Z through the metro DC area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 8 minutes ago, yoda said: Anything on how good the WRF-NMM is? Cause we'd all run with this The label is wrong - it's the WRF-NMMB. It's one of the two Hi-Res Windows. The NMMB is the same core used by the NAM (and half of the SREF members.) It's a hi-res model (3.6 km) that is run twice per day. One of the big differences between it and the NAM is that this Hi-Res Window WRF-NMMB run is initialized off of the RAP. Overall, it scores worse that the WRF-ARW (same core as the RAP/HRRR) Hi-Res Window run. And these snowfall plots suffer from the same problem that I noted earlier with the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 8, 2017 Author Share Posted February 8, 2017 Just now, high risk said: The label is wrong - it's the WRF-NMMB. It's one of the two Hi-Res Windows. The NMMB is the same core used by the NAM (and half of the SREF members.) It's a hi-res model (3.6 km) that is run twice per day. One of the big differences between it and the NAM is that this Hi-Res Window WRF-NMMB run is initialized off of the RAP. Overall, it scores worse that the WRF-ARW (same core as the RAP/HRRR) Hi-Res Window run. And these snowfall plots suffer from the same problem that I noted earlier with the NAM. Ah, thanks good sir. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 gotta say, I don't really agree with LWX's call of only an advisory up the northern tier. The chances of us seeing warning lvl snow (even if only 5") is there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUMG11 Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 RGEM gives me hope. If the Euro holds a more southern expanded percip shield and keeps temps lower to the south I'll feel a bit better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 1 minute ago, Always in Zugzwang said: Amazingly, the RGEM gets it below freezing by 12Z through the metro DC area. Yeah, extrapolating from the 3 hour plots and assuming decent dynamics immediate metro would get a period of snow probably from 10 or 11z through about 14z. Not terrible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 1 minute ago, high risk said: The label is wrong - it's the WRF-NMMB. It's one of the two Hi-Res Windows. The NMMB is the same core used by the NAM (and half of the SREF members.) It's a hi-res model (3.6 km) that is run twice per day. One of the big differences between it and the NAM is that this Hi-Res Window WRF-NMMB run is initialized off of the RAP. Overall, it scores worse that the WRF-ARW (same core as the RAP/HRRR) Hi-Res Window run. And these snowfall plots suffer from the same problem that I noted earlier with the NAM. The WRF-ARW snowfall map from last night shows exactly the kind of sharp gradient I was talking about. I think the map below is a realistic scenario, considering how marginal this storm will be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 In all seriousness, with regard to how generally skeptical people are, the Euro has been pretty much a rock, and the Canadian has supported it. In past years, a Euro/Canadian combo would be the no doubt place to put faith. I guess we are not doing that here because it shows snow for us rather than no snow for us? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 1 minute ago, mappy said: gotta say, I don't really agree with LWX's call of only an advisory up the northern tier. The chances of us seeing warning lvl snow (even if only 5") is there. Yeah, I wonder about that for the counties farther west and up at the PA/MD line. Interestingly, they also expanded the advisory a bit south to cover the northwest part of MoCo and HoCo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 42 minutes ago, gymengineer said: NYC and PHL have both had our 3/6/13 style busts over the years too. Yea there was a storm in Jan 2007 I think where NYC was under a warning for 6-10" and the storm took a bit longer to bomb and so temps never crashed and it was a 35 degree rainstorm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 1 minute ago, Always in Zugzwang said: Yeah, I wonder about that for the counties farther west and up at the PA/MD line. Interestingly, they also expanded the advisory a bit south to cover the northwest part of MoCo and HoCo. It wouldn't surprise me if they upgraded to a warning later, maybe after all 12z runs. I just think some of us could see 5" out of this. Not surprised about the advisory to parts of MoCo/HoCo down into VA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 8, 2017 Author Share Posted February 8, 2017 Probably discussed already and yes its within about 24 hrs... but the 00z EPS mean and 00z EPS control were both showing 2"+ for DCA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUMG11 Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 I'll take one RGEM (with ratios) please. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 6 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Yea there was a storm in Jan 2007 I think where NYC was under a warning for 6-10" and the storm took a bit longer to bomb and so temps never crashed and it was a 35 degree rainstorm. I believe it was Jan 2008, but yeah that one hurt for the NYC crowd. 6 minutes ago, mappy said: It wouldn't surprise me if they upgraded to a warning later, maybe after all 12z runs. I just think some of us could see 5" out of this. Not surprised about the advisory to parts of MoCo/HoCo down into VA. I think you have a good shot at seeing 5", but most of the county probably won't (unless there's a nice shift south), so I'm guessing the made it an advisory since most of the people live in the southern part of northern Baltimore county (which LWX defines as pretty much anyone north or west of 695). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 GFS is wet AF.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ErinInTheSky Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 So what's the deal with Kuchera ratio? Is it basically "weenie mode" for total snowfall maps? I've not had a single event hit those ratios IMBY this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 7 minutes ago, mappy said: It wouldn't surprise me if they upgraded to a warning later, maybe after all 12z runs. I just think some of us could see 5" out of this. Not surprised about the advisory to parts of MoCo/HoCo down into VA. These maps are based on snowfall and not what is actually on the ground. Also based upon 10:1 ratio. Someone correct me if I am wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AmericanWxFreak Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 Just now, Deck Pic said: GFS :0 please let that be a warrented face Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 8, 2017 Author Share Posted February 8, 2017 1 minute ago, Deck Pic said: GFS is wet AF.... Woah... QPF explosion... trying to figure out when we switch is a problem though byt the 21 and 24 hrs map are super wet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 1 minute ago, supernovasky said: So what's the deal with Kuchera ratio? Is it basically "weenie mode" for total snowfall maps? I've not had a single event hit those ratios IMBY this year. It's science, but it's very much weenie science. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 Awesome.... GFS shifted both wetter and colder at 12z tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 8, 2017 Author Share Posted February 8, 2017 1 minute ago, Deck Pic said: GFS Uh oh... red alert weenies Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 Ripping and below 32 in the metro at 24h! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 The wxbell maps are going to be so dirty.... GFS gives me 1.25" of liquid...lol... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUMG11 Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 GFS stronger, wetter, slower Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AmericanWxFreak Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 Hi Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.