RUMG11 Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 7 minutes ago, packfan98 said: A little better trough orientation on the nam. A little further south and not as sharp. Should be a better result for many of you this run I believe. 1 minute ago, snjókoma said: NAM is farther north, surface temps warmer so far at 18 hours. : | Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 NAM is 200 miles north of where the euro is at 12z tomorrorw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 Just now, RUMG11 said: : | I'm out to hr 25. The precip shield does reach further north because it's stronger. The surface low is in the same spot essentially as 6z. It did not go further north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 5 minutes ago, snjókoma said: NAM is farther north, surface temps warmer so far at 18 hours. regarding surface was thinking the same thing...25 mile shift to my weary eyes. low is 3 mb deeper and slightly south though Nut Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 Yeah the NAM looks warmer than the last run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 The NAM is taking its time getting the cold air down to the surface. Which makes some sense after this two day torch. But it looks good in the upper levels. It is really going to be all about watching the progress of the cold air with this one I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paleocene Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 The NAM screams "elevation snow" to me - the fall line and east are most likely screwed. Temps still above 32 in DC when the low is well east and precip is on the way out. Looks like Bob was right yesterday, though I'm a noob and I don't know how much respect we give the NAM on temps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 3 minutes ago, Fozz said: Yeah the NAM looks warmer than the last run. 2m temps look a little more favorable on the back side. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TowsonWeather Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 2 minutes ago, pasnownut said: was thinking the same thing...25 mile shift to my weary eyes. Nut It's basically identical at 25h vs 31 at 6Z. It' also a more dynamic and stronger storm, with more precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 Just now, Fozz said: Yeah the NAM looks warmer than the last run. Couple degrees difference, which is a big deal on the timing of the flip. 06z 24hr was 38° vs 12z now 41° for me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snjókoma Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 NAM verbatim for DC is hours of mod rain followed by a 1.5 hour period of moderate snow that leaves a dusting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 the 4k NAM has the LOW WAAAAAAAAAY further south http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=nam4km®ion=neus&pkg=ref_frzn&runtime=2017020812&fh=18 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 DP on the NAM is 40 at 10z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 2 minutes ago, Ji said: the 4k NAM has the LOW WAAAAAAAAAY further south http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=nam4km®ion=neus&pkg=ref_frzn&runtime=2017020812&fh=18 The L is just on a little meso-low near convection. The actual low there is just SW of CHO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 Good trend. 12K NAM is organizing quicker and moving and expanding the precip field into the northwest sector sooner. Gives us a longer period of precip within the colder sector of the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 3 minutes ago, Ji said: the 4k NAM has the LOW WAAAAAAAAAY further south http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=nam4km®ion=neus&pkg=ref_frzn&runtime=2017020812&fh=18 That looks absurd. The low is jumping north and south and back and forth again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 What model is more accurate? Nam 3K, 4K, 12K? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUMG11 Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 The question will be how well does the NAM handle these temps. Because it is clearly the warmest in regards to the r/s line's location and how far north it pushes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 I would feel much better about this storm if I was living up in Harrisburg Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 2 minutes ago, RidingTheModelWithMostSnow said: I would feel much better about this storm if I was living up in Harrisburg I would feel a lot better if posts like these could just go into banter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 1 minute ago, RUMG11 said: The question will be how well does the NAM handle these temps. Because it is clearly the warmest in regards to the r/s line's location and how far north it pushes The nam was the best for our SE storm in January. It was a different setup, but the nam accurately predicted the mixing line to be 30 miles further NW than other modeling. The weather forecasters and NWS really busted for the Charlotte and Raleigh metro areas. Instead of 6-10, many areas got around an inch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUMG11 Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 Just now, packfan98 said: The nam was the best for our SE storm in January. It was a different setup, but the nam accurately predicted the mixing line to be 30 miles further NW than other modeling. The weather forecasters and NWS really busted for the Charlotte and Raleigh metro areas. Instead of 6-10, many areas got around an inch. Well that makes the consistency of the NAM quite concerning if you're hoping for accumulating snow to the south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 1 minute ago, packfan98 said: The nam was the best for our SE storm in January. It was a different setup, but the nam accurately predicted the mixing line to be 30 miles further NW than other modeling. The weather forecasters and NWS really busted for the Charlotte and Raleigh metro areas. Instead of 6-10, many areas got around an inch. How good was the 4K NAM? Because looking at that, I'd lock that one up right away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 I think this may be the best 4km NAM run yet for my backyard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 total qpf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 1 minute ago, Fozz said: How good was the 4K NAM? Because looking at that, I'd lock that one up right away. I don't remember. Sorry. It was a different setup anyway. We had the cold and a good track, but the nam picked up on the warm nose. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 Just now, Fozz said: How good was the 4K NAM? Because looking at that, I'd lock that one up right away. I can't recall which red-tagger said it (maybe das), but I'm fairly sure they said that the 4k nam has been getting the best verification scores of the nam nest. This was about 3 weeks ago. Of course, having said that, I don't think it did very well in the most recent "storm." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUMG11 Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 1 minute ago, nw baltimore wx said: I can't recall which red-tagger said it (maybe das), but I'm fairly sure they said that the 4k nam has been getting the best verification scores of the nam nest. This was about 3 weeks ago. Of course, having said that, I don't think it did very well in the most recent "storm." If you're on that bandwagon... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 The NAM images mappy posted are practically pure climo for a setup like this. 00z soundsing from PIT and IAD will be really important tonight to understand the setup of the atmosphere locally and upstream. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 Here is super important point to realize about NAM snowfall maps: if the model has 1" of liquid for an event, and the model thinks that during all of the precip, half of the elements falling from the sky are snowflakes and half are raindrops, it generates 0.5" liquid as snow. The 10:1 ratio is then applied to get 5" of snow, even though we all know that a 50/50 rain/snow mix won't accumulate 5". The best parameter to check is the accumulated snow depth from f00 on the EMC page. You can see it for the NAM nest (4km), with a northeast zoom, near the bottom of http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/mmb/mmbpll/nam_conusnest/ I've attached the 6z plot of snow depth from f00 (the start). Even though the TT map shows a lot of central MD getting good accumulations, the model thinks that very little is on the ground by 15z Thursday, until you get up to the MD/PA line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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