mappy Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 A lot of awful posts over night. Regardless of whether or not Randy pulls the trigger on a new thread and storm mode, I will be hiding posts today if I think they are ridiculous and off topic. We have a banter thread for a reason. Give me crap all you want, but we are a public forum and some people need to learn to stay classy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 LWX snowfall map as of 7am Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 3 minutes ago, usedtobe said: For us I'm still pessimistic. We probably see some snow but I'm not convinced we see any accumulations. The veteran's day storm was much different, it had a upper low closing off and was way more dynamic that this trough. Most models have the precip pretty much done by 12z. I don't trust the rgem as it has run cold every storm this year that I can think of except the first cold air damming ice storm. The second one, it was way too cold. Below I've attached the vet day storm surface and 500h. Agreed, Wes and thank you. We benefited from better dynamics with that storm where this one is more wavish. The cold source was better too that helped drop temps more than this one. i only wanted to point out how previous days temps can be warm and still get snow 24 hrs later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 WPC snow map, 50% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 4 minutes ago, mappy said: A lot of awful posts over night. Regardless of whether or not Randy pulls the trigger on a new thread and storm mode, I will be hiding posts today if I think they are ridiculous and off topic. We have a banter thread for a reason. Give me crap all you want, but we are a public forum and some people need to learn to stay classy. agreed. when model runs come out provide info and not "toss" "torch" or similar stuff. time to tighten up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 8 minutes ago, mappy said: WPC snow map, 50% That looks solid to me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 Just looked at the 3 hourly precip for DCA for the period ending at 12Z and both models only give DCA 0.10" which really doesn't give much time for snow to accumulate as it is still pretty warm at 09Z. MY guess is for ANdy and I and Matt, we see snow but only a coating on grass. Up towards Mappy is more interesting as it gets colder faster and she could have a boomlet for a few hours. Glad I don't have to make a decision til later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 Let's do 12z models here and then do a new thread after for obs and short range stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 2 minutes ago, usedtobe said: Just looked at the 3 hourly precip for DCA for the period ending at 12Z and both models only give DCA 0.10" which really doesn't give much time for snow to accumulate as it is still pretty warm at 09Z. MY guess is for ANdy and I and Matt, we see snow but only a coating on grass. Up towards Mappy is more interesting as it gets colder faster and she could have a boomlet for a few hours. Glad I don't have to make a decision til later. Would you agree that this is probably one of the more difficult forecasts of the last few years? I know no one storm is the same and all can have their own challenges but this one just seems like a crap chute to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 3 minutes ago, usedtobe said: Just looked at the 3 hourly precip for DCA for the period ending at 12Z and both models only give DCA 0.10" which really doesn't give much time for snow to accumulate as it is still pretty warm at 09Z. MY guess is for ANdy and I and Matt, we see snow but only a coating on grass. Up towards Mappy is more interesting as it gets colder faster and she could have a boomlet for a few hours. Glad I don't have to make a decision til later. i like the sound of a boomlet. thanks for your thoughts, Wes! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 6 minutes ago, BaltimoreWxGuy said: Would you agree that this is probably one of the more difficult forecasts of the last few years? I know no one storm is the same and all can have their own challenges but this one just seems like a crap chute to me. I can remember quite a few really tough forecasts. any time you are on the edge is tough. For you northern guys, I think the forecast is tougher as the snow will be falling around rush hour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 1 minute ago, WxWatcher007 said: I don't think I've seen a met say we have a chance in DC yet Yeah I can see why they're not giving us much of a shot. Record warmth leading into the event and a poor track record with previous events like this. However, it is encouraging that the Euro/RGEM/GEM still give us a shot. A 3 hour period of intense rates even with warm ground could cause a little rush hour chaos, which I'm hoping for. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 Just now, WxWatcher007 said: No doubt. At least we're still in the game. The runs today will be interesting. It won't take much to make this a solid event here. Yeah, at this point I'd consider an inch or two to be a pretty big win for us, and it stills seems possible. Heck, at least we have an event in the short-range to track. That's a step up for us this year! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 9 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: I don't think I've seen a met say we have a chance in DC yet They might be afraid to say anything for us. One small change affects everyone for better or worse. We wouldn't have a big chance set this point, but I don't think it's near 0. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Warm Nose Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 Well at least we're not talking about 'sun angle' for this event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RevWarReenactor Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 This might be the first time in the 7 years I've lived in the area that I've been forecast to see a lot more snow than DC. (On the border of MD/Delaware at Interstate 95). Rooting for you guys down there, even up here not so sure of things. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 1 minute ago, Mdecoy said: This might be the first time in the 7 years I've lived in the area that I've been forecast to see a lot more snow than DC. (On the border of MD/Delaware at Interstate 95). Rooting for you guys down there, even up here not so sure of things. Yeah, after looking at the 6z's it looks like the the northern tier of this forum still has some cards left. Hoping they can pull it out. Nut Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
birdsofprey02 Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 2 minutes ago, Mdecoy said: This might be the first time in the 7 years I've lived in the area that I've been forecast to see a lot more snow than DC. (On the border of MD/Delaware at Interstate 95). Rooting for you guys down there, even up here not so sure of things. I lived in Harford County most of my life and typically did better than DC. Is it really that much different a few miles up 95? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RevWarReenactor Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 2 minutes ago, pasnownut said: Yeah, after looking at the 6z's it looks like the the northern tier of this forum still has some cards left. Hoping they can pull it out. Nut Thanks! I think DC still have a shot at something. 2 minutes ago, birdsofprey02 said: I lived in Harford County most of my life and typically did better than DC. Is it really that much different a few miles up 95? Work at APG, live MD/DE border and I've found snow here has tracked almost perfectly with DC (plus or minus a few inches). We still miss the big coastals that slam NJ etc. Just like DC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 12z Nam on deck. Through hr 9 the energy is digging a little further sw. Also the energy off the Carolina coast is a little stronger. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 14 minutes ago, Warm Nose said: Well at least we're not talking about 'sun angle' for this event. But we are waiting for a CF to come over the mountains. They are always later than models show. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 Despite the offshore low, the NAM looks faster, if anything. Through 10 at least... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 Looks to be stronger at the surface on the nam. A little more precip and the low is more organized early on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 1 hour ago, mappy said: WPC snow map, 50% That looks about right to me. A solid 2-4 thumper. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 A little better trough orientation on the nam. A little further south and not as sharp. Should be a better result for many of you this run I believe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 So where do we go from here? We just wing it and pray the HRRR/NAM and 12z runs keep hope alive? Edit: I see you NAM. Bring it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 5 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: That looks about right to me. A solid 2-4 thumper. I would agree. Pretty reasonable outcome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snjókoma Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 NAM is farther north, surface temps warmer so far at 18 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 Just now, HighStakes said: I would agree. Pretty reasonable outcome. I agree, though I wouldn't be surprised if the gradient ends up being tighter than what that map shows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 Nam has some good trends. A stronger system without it being further north. More precip and a hair slower. H5 really looked better with respect to the trough orientation and how much further south the energy was digging. Good luck to all of you guys! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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