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February 8-9 Cold Rain Event


yoda

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According to the Kuchera map the 00z GFS was a little worse than 18z around here but better out west.  The 00z runs have moved the low out of here more quickly than the 18z suite, which I think has reduced totals in NE MD.

rWSzqVS.gif

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2 minutes ago, BaltimoreWxGuy said:

HRRR has DC at 65 at 3PM tomorrow....hard to believe it might snow 12 hours later...serious question, what is a legit example of this situation? I feel like some of has have never seen this possible outcome. 65 to 34 in 12 hrs and heavy snow?

I know a couple of years ago it was warm and then we got a paste job.  Shut down 83 and people walked home.  I do not know how warm it was though.

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6 minutes ago, BaltimoreWxGuy said:

HRRR has DC at 65 at 3PM tomorrow....hard to believe it might snow 12 hours later...serious question, what is a legit example of this situation? I feel like some of us have never seen this possible outcome. 65 to 34 in 12 hrs and heavy snow?

I remember it was mid-60s in the NC mountains on the Saturday afternoon before Sandy and 32 and snowing by midnight Sunday night, but that's the closest I can remember.

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GGEM is way slower than the GFS at 36hrs. GFS is 100 miles east of Cape May, while the GEM is 10 miles NE of VA beach.  This would explain the extra snow.

 

EDIT:  Just noticed GGEM has a feedback low offshore.  This may Fujiwara the main low south. 

 

gem_mslpaNorm_us_6.png

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11 minutes ago, BaltimoreWxGuy said:

HRRR has DC at 65 at 3PM tomorrow....hard to believe it might snow 12 hours later...serious question, what is a legit example of this situation? I feel like some of us have never seen this possible outcome. 65 to 34 in 12 hrs and heavy snow?

That scenario isn't far-fetched with our history of strong cold fronts. Check out 11/11/95 (64F high/32F low in Potomac, MD) and 3/8/05 (60F high/24F low in Potomac, MD). A heavy snow burst covered the ground in both those situations. 

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6 hours ago, paulythegun said:

Both the 12z Euro and 18z Rgem have the mesoscale feature that rolled through NOLA today developing into a weak low off of NC. In both cases, that low gums things up and impedes the progress of our main low, allowing the cold air to rush in and for the system to amp up a bit more.

Keep an eye on that feature

 

9 minutes ago, Amped said:

GGEM is way slower than the GFS at 36hrs. GFS is 100 miles east of Cape May, while the GEM is 10 miles NE of VA beach.  This would explain the extra snow.

 

EDIT:  Just noticed GGEM has a feedback low offshore.  This may Fujiwara the main low south. 

 

gem_mslpaNorm_us_6.png

Good calls.  No other model has the offshore low deeper than the onshore low at hour 30.  The GGEM has a deeper offshore low already at 24 hours.  With no other model, not even the RGEM, in its corner, it's hard to give much weight to the GGEM.  But it does show how this could potentially shift in our favor.

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Looking at SLP placement at 36 hours, tonight's runs from fastest to slowest are roughly:

GFS
NAMs / ICON
UKMET / RGEM
GGEM

The slower runs are better for us.  The 12z Euro run had the low in a similar location as the UKMET / RGEM's 00z runs. 

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