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February 8-9 Cold Rain Event


yoda

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The differences on the GFS is mostly noise but yes the bleeding in terms of warmer/further north has halted. I have to be to work at 6AM Thurs, I think my best bet is to go to bed at 8PM and wake up and 3AM and watch things transpire. Probably one of the more difficult forecasts of the last few years. Here in East Balt, Ill go 3-4 hours of puking snow with 1-2" to show for it.

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4 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Pretty atrocious

So far the worst case is the gfs and the best is the rgem with everything else falling in between. 

GFS is playing catch-up imho. 18z was just a step towards everything else. You could probably completely toss the run, use all other available guidance, and come up with a very good forecast. I'm fully prepared for being on the outside looking in either way. 

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1 minute ago, Amped said:

GFS is faster than the euro, probably why the precip shuts off before the cold air comes in.

Faster seems to make sense given the progressive pattern we have been in, but maybe the storm well to our northwest today will slow things down and give the EURO a score.

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4 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

So far the worst case is the gfs and the best is the rgem with everything else falling in between. 

GFS is playing catch-up imho. 18z was just a step towards everything else. You could probably completely toss the run, use all other available guidance, and come up with a very good forecast. I'm fully prepared for being on the outside looking in either way. 

What I wouldn't give to shove the RGEM even further south by about 50-100 miles.  If the NAM sinks south tonight, we might be on to something...getting in the meso's time frame.

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1 minute ago, WxWatcher007 said:

We stopped the bleeding. Hopefully we can start recovery tonight.

I really wouldn't be surprised if this thing keeps opening up the percip shield further south as the models come to a convergence on temps. There is still plenty of time and the trend has been our friend these past couple runs.

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Both the 12z Euro and 18z Rgem have the mesoscale feature that rolled through NOLA today developing into a weak low off of NC. In both cases, that low gums things up and impedes the progress of our main low, allowing the cold air to rush in and for the system to amp up a bit more.

Keep an eye on that feature


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10 minutes ago, paulythegun said:

Both the 12z Euro and 18z Rgem have the mesoscale feature that rolled through NOLA today developing into a weak low off of NC. In both cases, that low gums things up and impedes the progress of our main low, allowing the cold air to rush in and for the system to amp up a bit more.

Keep an eye on that feature
 

 

Yeah, mentioned that feature when the Euro was coming out and wondered its effects. 

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6 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Yeah, mentioned that feature when the Euro was coming out and wondered its effects. 

 

18 minutes ago, paulythegun said:

Both the 12z Euro and 18z Rgem have the mesoscale feature that rolled through NOLA today developing into a weak low off of NC. In both cases, that low gums things up and impedes the progress of our main low, allowing the cold air to rush in and for the system to amp up a bit more.

Keep an eye on that feature
 

 

Good obs fellas

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1 hour ago, WVclimo said:

WSW for the Pa. county 15 miles to my north calls for 4-8".  Point and click from LWX for my zone going with 1-3.  Not much difference there between some slush and a heavy wet snow.

As long as south of the MD line gets a WWA and not a WSW I think LWX will do okay.  1-3 or 2-4 won't be that bad in case of a temp bust.  Getting a snow depth significantly over 4" will be almost impossible at low elevations.

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