Fozz Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 28 minutes ago, mappy said: has a very Oct 2011 feel to it. Didn't you drive north into PA for that one? Yup! It was awesome. Parkton did very well, especially near the M/D line. Middletown Rd had much less, so a few miles really made all the difference. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 2 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said: I was looking at 850mb and couldn't really find the culprit to it. You can see the temps were certainly a touch warmer south of I-70, but as much a few degrees warmer up in NMD and into PA. The wind component actually decreased from the south as well into the area. 925's were a bit colder overall too. Quite odd and not a bad run. That 1-2 degree difference is going to be crazy for many in here. It's going to be the key between meh and 6" of fun. The 00z sounding from PIT and IAD tomorrow will be YUGE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 1 minute ago, Fozz said: Yup! It was awesome. Parkton did very well, especially near the M/D line. Middletown Rd had much less, so a few miles really made all the difference. phew, I'm north of Middletown. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 7, 2017 Author Share Posted February 7, 2017 EPS mean is okay for us... EPS Control is the lulz with its gradient Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RichmondTarHeel Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 Step #1 is seeing if the forecasted temps verify tomorrow. Forecasted to be about 50 degrees at 7pm tomorrow night. If I'm any lower than that I'll get excited. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 1 minute ago, BTRWx said: Good time to promote the Storm of the Century documentary shared a couple days ago. It did just that! I can't speak for this location, but temps weren't anywhere near 70 degrees in the days leading up to that storm in swva. As a matter of fact, I distinctly remember it being near 40 on the Thursday before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 3 minutes ago, midatlanticweather said: According to the 3km NAM - I could drive 15 minutes and go from 0 to 7 inches of snow! =) It's a full 1" radius from the District. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 Glad to know that I wasn't the only person puzzled by the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 that 3km NAM outcome is pretty interesting, even if we chop down the generic 10:1 ratios applied on those maps. keep in mind that this is the next version of the NAM nest that will be implemented in March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 1 minute ago, WinterWxLuvr said: I can't speak for this location, but temps weren't anywhere near 70 degrees in the days leading up to that storm in swva. As a matter of fact, I distinctly remember it being near 40 on the Thursday before. Wunderground has dca at 59, so not quite 70 up here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 13 minutes ago, Always in Zugzwang said: I do recall a couple of times in 2014 when we had some warm days followed by snow. Just did a quick check on the daily/monthly records on LWX's site and indeed, we had a max temp of 60 and 70 degrees on the 2 days preceding the St. Patrick's Day snow (at DCA). And in January that year, it was in the upper 50s on the 20th, followed by snow on the 21st (though not as significant as the St. Pat's event). ETA: To be sure, it was quite cold in the early part March 2014, followed by some very warm days, then the big snow St. Pat's Day. For the event coming, we haven't exactly had much of any cold prior to it. That is interesting thanks for the info. I can remember mid 60's before snow storms from the past for sure. But I am sitting at 72 degrees right now. I have to think that would be a first for my area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 1 minute ago, high risk said: that 3km NAM outcome is pretty interesting, even if we chop down the generic 10:1 ratios applied on those maps. keep in mind that this is the next version of the NAM nest that will be implemented in March. whats it show? wxbell not out yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 Tough forecast for the people who have to put one out there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 Just now, clskinsfan said: That is interesting thanks for the info. I can remember mid 60's before snow storms from the past for sure. But I am sitting at 72 degrees right now. I have to think that would be a first for my area. Wasn't last years storm warm the day before? Might have just been upper 50s, or I might be misremembering completely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUMG11 Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 2 minutes ago, high risk said: that 3km NAM outcome is pretty interesting, even if we chop down the generic 10:1 ratios applied on those maps. keep in mind that this is the next version of the NAM nest that will be implemented in March. It attempts to be much more precise with the unique banding in certain areas. Very interesting. 10:1 ratios are still on the light side tho, imo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paleocene Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 1 minute ago, mappy said: whats it show? wxbell not out yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 thx Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 3 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: Wasn't last years storm warm the day before? Might have just been upper 50s, or I might be misremembering completely. You mean the blizzard last year? No, it was quite cold the entire week leading into it, including a "mini-Commutageddon" light snow event from a Clipper 2 days prior. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 4 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: That is interesting thanks for the info. I can remember mid 60's before snow storms from the past for sure. But I am sitting at 72 degrees right now. I have to think that would be a first for my area. From my memory, I think warm days 5 days prior are more common than under 72 hrs. *let's distract the northerners any way we can* Kidding, I'll turn my banter switch off Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 I have no idea if the NAM is right, but if it can continue to edge south the next few runs and it's correct, we could have something here, especially Central MD and north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 2 minutes ago, Always in Zugzwang said: You mean the blizzard last year? No, it was quite cold the entire week leading into it, including a "mini-Commutageddon" light snow even from a Clipper 2 days prior. Can't figure out what I'm remembering! Thought there was some big debate last year about temps and big storms, maybe it was two years ago then. Obviously it doesn't stop a storm from happening, but 70 the day before might screw with the 4m soil temp. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris624wx Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 Yeah, 3K NAM jumps the low south as it moves through VA. Not sure if that's often seen around here since I haven't been up here for a full winter yet, but it's an interesting solution for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GramaxRefugee Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 Quite warm before 11/11/1987 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 7, 2017 Author Share Posted February 7, 2017 18z RGEM at 36 hrs has a 996mb SLP VA/NC line ETA: Waiting for 48 hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 2 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: The mega front in early November was 70 for a high then sleet and snow by evening. Most of our big ones have a torch within a week or so of the big hits, just saying Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 1 minute ago, yoda said: 18z RGEM at 36 996mb SLP VA/NC line And the plot thickens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 2 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: Can't figure out what I'm remembering! Thought there was some big debate last year about temps and big storms, maybe it was two years ago then. Obviously it doesn't stop a storm from happening, but 70 the day before might screw with the 4m soil temp. Yeah, maybe from a couple of years ago or something. But the thing is in the current situation, we've been almost completely devoid of any real cold air for some time; it's been well above normal pretty consistently most days. Would be perhaps different if it was very cold for a week, then a couple of days of 60-70, then a storm. But we haven't even had that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 7, 2017 Author Share Posted February 7, 2017 Jesus... 18z RGEM bombs away from 36 to 48 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 2 minutes ago, yoda said: Jesus... 18z RGEM bombs away from 36 to 48 Map?? What's it look like? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 3/22/90 and 3/23/90 had highs in the upper 60's and 70's ahead of the 3/24/90 snowstorm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.