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February 8-9 Cold Rain Event


yoda

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6 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said:

It's going to be pretty tight for your area. You won't have to go far to your north to really see a stark difference. I'm a firm believer that 700'+ elevation areas will probably see at least 2". Below that is where questions will arise. 

What about 1050 feet about one mile south of PA?  

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1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

What about 1050 feet about one mile south of PA?  

You'rre looking pretty good.  When I lived in PA, the commute home from DC changed quickly in Carroll County.  Driving up MD 27 from Westminster to Manchester would see a ~500 ft elevation chance and a quick flip to snow.

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1 minute ago, Eskimo Joe said:

You'rre looking pretty good.  When I lived in PA, the commute home from DC changed quickly in Carroll County.  Driving up MD 27 from Westminster to Manchester would see a ~500 ft elevation chance and a quick flip to snow.

Im 99% sure he was being sarcastic. 

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1 minute ago, Eskimo Joe said:

You'rre looking pretty good.  When I lived in PA, the commute home from DC changed quickly in Carroll County.  Driving up MD 27 from Westminster to Manchester would see a ~500 ft elevation chance and a quick flip to snow.

Yea I see a huge difference just to my south commuting to Baltimore. Even just to Westminster sometimes. There was an April snow several years ago where I had 4" and Westminster nothing. 

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2 minutes ago, DCTeacherman said:

I'm thinking not for MBY given the 40 F contour cuts through DC.  It's down to 35 by 12z but by then the precip is gone. 

Yeah, wasn't really including myself either. Meant the big 30dbz+ arc that the NAM seems to show. Still think its a positive run in the sense that the snow totals seem to be moving ever so slightly south and it was ever so slightly colder.

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1 minute ago, RUMG11 said:

The nam quite clearly moved the percip shield further south, but temps are still not up to par with what the Euro showed. Either way, I think its a step in the right direction. 

Yup. .7 to 1 from 12z to 18z IMBY

temps are 1-2 degrees different than 12z. Makes a big difference for a lot of people. Still a decent snow IMBY

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11 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

Anybody ever seen a good snow 36 hours after a 72 degree temp in this area?

 

10 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

Its pretty ugly for anyone south of 

I cant remember it ever. I will have to go through my records when I get home tonight. The torch is concerning for sure.

I do recall a couple of times in 2014 when we had some warm days followed by snow.  Just did a quick check on the daily/monthly records on LWX's site and indeed, we had a max temp of 60 and 70 degrees on the 2 days preceding the St. Patrick's Day snow (at DCA).  And in January that year, it was in the upper 50s on the 20th, followed by snow on the 21st (though not as significant as the St. Pat's event).

ETA:  To be sure, it was quite cold in the early part March 2014, followed by some very warm days, then the big snow St. Pat's Day.  For the event coming, we haven't exactly had much of any cold prior to it.

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13 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

Anybody ever seen a good snow 36 hours after a 72 degree temp in this area?

Good time to promote the Storm of the Century documentary shared a couple days ago.  It did just that!

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4 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

NAM is a puzzle.  The low was slightly se of 12z, precip looks good, but temps around midnight tomorrow night are warmer.

And the 4k nam follows right along with this. Only the snow doesn't reach as far south as 12z, but the track of the low is more favorable.  Fight that warm air!

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3 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

NAM is a puzzle.  The low was slightly se of 12z, precip looks good, but temps around midnight tomorrow night are warmer.

I was looking at 850mb and couldn't really find the culprit to it. You can see the temps were certainly a touch warmer south of I-70, but as much a few degrees warmer up in NMD and into PA. The wind component actually decreased from the south as well into the area. 925's were a bit colder overall too. Quite odd and not a bad run. That 1-2 degree difference is going to be crazy for many in here. 

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Just now, packfan98 said:

And the 4k nam follows right along with this. Only the snow doesn't reach as far south as 12z, but the track of the low is more favorable.  Fight that warm air!

Does the nam handle temps particularly well? Perhaps the Euro has a better grasp. The south tick is the kicker here. 

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