AmericanWxFreak Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 Just now, NorthArlington101 said: Don't know if I'll get banned for posting the SREF's but they are getting better run after run. This run had two large outliers, but the mean at DCA is 1.87" if those get removed. Ill take the risk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 Agree with Ellinwoosh on the map, save the Laurel Highlands. Think the 4" - 8" needs to be expanded to include JST, AOO, K2G9, KHMZ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 4 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: Agree with Ellinwoosh on the map, save the Laurel Highlands. Think the 4" - 8" needs to be expanded to include JST, AOO, K2G9, KHMZ KMDPARKT8 too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 9 minutes ago, AmericanWxFreak said: Ill take the risk. Never seen those before... Kinda interesting, but it is the SREF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 Just now, mappy said: KMDPARKT8 too I like your spot for 3-6" but NOT 4-8" J/K The whole northern fringe crowd could do okay here. The elevation will really help out in the end. Basically, if you're above 700', there's a formidable shot to see at least 2" from this setup. I like the look of the 700 VV's for the area and the colder temps aloft down to 850 advecting in. It's basically 925 to the surface that could be a big issue with many. Need the rates to overcome that warm layer. And when I say 3-6", I'm talking on normal shaded areas and grass. Driveways will take a bit more time with heavier rates and side roads might be okay unless slammed by heavier bands longer. This snow will be more for aesthetics than for driving impact IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 10 minutes ago, mappy said: KMDPARKT8 too Reisterstown COOP coming Fall 2022 (once school loans are paid off)! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 16 minutes ago, AmericanWxFreak said: Ill take the risk. nice maps, but that is only half of the SREF. Do you have the other 13 members (the NMMB)? The ARW members you showed tend to overamplify systems, so it will be telling if the NMMB members are less snowy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 2 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said: I like your spot for 3-6" but NOT 4-8" J/K The whole northern fringe crowd could do okay here. The elevation will really help out in the end. Basically, if you're above 700', there's a formidable shot to see at least 2" from this setup. I like the look of the 700 VV's for the area and the colder temps aloft down to 850 advecting in. It's basically 925 to the surface that could be a big issue with many. Need the rates to overcome that warm layer. And when I say 3-6", I'm talking on normal shaded areas and grass. Driveways will take a bit more time with heavier rates and side roads might be okay unless slammed by heavier bands longer. This snow will be more for aesthetics than for driving impact IMO. I'm just being a weenie. I was all about 2-4" so anything more, works for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 42 minutes ago, Ellinwood said: Me: Coincidentally, the top of your map looks just like your avatar's mane, lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 couple maps for you all WPC snowfall, out to 72hrs, 50% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 And current WFO thinking (note the difference along the border between offices) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 9 minutes ago, high risk said: nice maps, but that is only half of the SREF. Do you have the other 13 members (the NMMB)? The ARW members you showed tend to overamplify systems, so it will be telling if the NMMB members are less snowy. I think I answered my own question. Check out the SREF plumes for DCA. The big hitters are almost all yellows, oranges, and reds - the ARW members. The weak sauce members are almost all blues, greens, and purples - the NMMB members. For whatever reason, the ARW members tend to way overamplify these systems, and there is a good chance that this is the case again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 OMG. I'm now praying for the SREF's? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 1 hour ago, packfan98 said: Looks great to me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 7 minutes ago, mappy said: And current WFO thinking (note the difference along the border between offices) State college WFO looks odd but seems realistic for everyone else. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 Just now, WxUSAF said: State college WFO looks odd but seems realistic for everyone else. Yeah, its odd just over the border to my north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
caviman2201 Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 This is one of those times I wish I still lived in Mt. Airy... being at 800ft made a world of difference. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 8 minutes ago, caviman2201 said: This is one of those times I wish I still lived in Mt. Airy... being at 800ft made a world of difference. Agreed. Elevation and latitude will be the deciding factors on who sees what. This is the kind of storm where it pays to live in Thurmont, Lineboro, Parkton, or Damascus. Two caveats that I see with this storm: -We are busting warm ahead of the storm and have been for the past two days. This could lend some credit to the warm/wet trends recently. -I've noticed that in marginal rain to snow transitions, the Frederick Valley will not change over quickly to snow and can lag other locations. I believe it was the Thanksgiving Day 2013 (14?) event where Frederick was 34 and rain while Gaithersburg was flipping to snow. We could be seeing a mini-snow hole with this event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 Nam looks to be a little less amped this run. Trough is a little less sharp. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 Low is about 30 miles south of 12Z at hr 33. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 1 hour ago, MillvilleWx said: Montgomery county is going to see a crazy gradient given the trends on guidance today. Areas down near you might be 1-2" at most while Germantown to the north will be 3-5" with highest over Pars Ridge and Damascus. I would kill for just a 20 mile shift south at this rate to get everyone into NoVa and southern half of the county feeling a bit more comfortable. From the looks of the guidance, it seems equally dicey around where I live. For this storm, I'd much rather be slightly further north, and closer to the M/D line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 1 minute ago, Fozz said: From the looks of the guidance, it seems equally dicey around where I live. For this storm, I'd much rather be slightly further north, and closer to the M/D line. has a very Oct 2011 feel to it. Didn't you drive north into PA for that one? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 7, 2017 Author Share Posted February 7, 2017 Per IWM, at 36 hrs SLP in SW VA at 1002 mb (18z NAM) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 Is that a secondary low wanting to form off the coast at 32 hrs? Edit: it fails. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 1 minute ago, Fozz said: From the looks of the guidance, it seems equally dicey around where I live. For this storm, I'd much rather be slightly further north, and closer to the M/D line. It's going to be pretty tight for your area. You won't have to go far to your north to really see a stark difference. I'm a firm believer that 700'+ elevation areas will probably see at least 2". Below that is where questions will arise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 29 minutes ago, mappy said: And current WFO thinking (note the difference along the border between offices) I've noticed often the northern zone of one office will be more bullish then the southern zone of the next office up. I guess it's simple perception bias of thinking of your snowiest zone vs the next regions least snowy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 Looks slightly south and slightly less amped... Not sure it's gonna amount to anything much better but trending in the right direction perhaps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 NAM 500 does appear to shifted everything a little to the SE at 36. Not sure if it'll be enough to help us out, but we'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 5 minutes ago, mappy said: has a very Oct 2011 feel to it. Didn't you drive north into PA for that one? What did you get from that one. 8" here. One of my favorite storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 7, 2017 Author Share Posted February 7, 2017 39 hrs -- 1000mb SE VA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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