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February 8-9 Cold Rain Event


yoda

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Just now, mappy said:

KMDPARKT8 too 

I like your spot for 3-6" but NOT 4-8" :P

J/K  The whole northern fringe crowd could do okay here. The elevation will really help out in the end. Basically, if you're above 700', there's a formidable shot to see at least 2" from this setup. I like the look of the 700 VV's for the area and the colder temps aloft down to 850 advecting in. It's basically 925 to the surface that could be a big issue with many. Need the rates to overcome that warm layer. And when I say 3-6", I'm talking on normal shaded areas and grass. Driveways will take a bit more time with heavier rates and side roads might be okay unless slammed by heavier bands longer. This snow will be more for aesthetics than for driving impact IMO.  

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2 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said:

I like your spot for 3-6" but NOT 4-8" :P

J/K  The whole northern fringe crowd could do okay here. The elevation will really help out in the end. Basically, if you're above 700', there's a formidable shot to see at least 2" from this setup. I like the look of the 700 VV's for the area and the colder temps aloft down to 850 advecting in. It's basically 925 to the surface that could be a big issue with many. Need the rates to overcome that warm layer. And when I say 3-6", I'm talking on normal shaded areas and grass. Driveways will take a bit more time with heavier rates and side roads might be okay unless slammed by heavier bands longer. This snow will be more for aesthetics than for driving impact IMO.  

I'm just being a weenie. I was all about 2-4" so anything more, works for me. 

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9 minutes ago, high risk said:

     nice maps, but that is only half of the SREF.     Do you have the other 13 members (the NMMB)?     The ARW members you showed tend to overamplify systems, so it will be telling if the NMMB members are less snowy.

         I think I answered my own question.   Check out the SREF plumes for DCA.    The big hitters are almost all yellows, oranges, and reds - the ARW members.   The weak sauce members are almost all blues, greens, and purples - the NMMB members.     For whatever reason, the ARW members tend to way overamplify these systems, and there is a good chance that this is the case again.

Screen Shot 2017-02-07 at 2.41.47 PM.png

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8 minutes ago, caviman2201 said:

This is one of those times I wish I still lived in Mt. Airy... being at 800ft made a world of difference.

Agreed.  Elevation and latitude will be the deciding factors on who sees what.  This is the kind of storm where it pays to live in Thurmont, Lineboro, Parkton, or Damascus.  Two caveats that I see with this storm:

-We are busting warm ahead of the storm and have been for the past two days.  This could lend some credit to the warm/wet trends recently.

-I've noticed that in marginal rain to snow transitions, the Frederick Valley will not change over quickly to snow and can lag other locations.  I believe it was the Thanksgiving Day 2013 (14?) event where Frederick was 34 and rain while Gaithersburg was flipping to snow.  We could be seeing a mini-snow hole with this event.

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1 hour ago, MillvilleWx said:

Montgomery county is going to see a crazy gradient given the trends on guidance today. Areas down near you might be 1-2" at most while Germantown to the north will be 3-5" with highest over Pars Ridge and Damascus. I would kill for just a 20 mile shift south at this rate to get everyone into NoVa and southern half of the county feeling a bit more comfortable. 

From the looks of the guidance, it seems equally dicey around where I live. For this storm, I'd much rather be slightly further north, and closer to the M/D line.

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1 minute ago, Fozz said:

From the looks of the guidance, it seems equally dicey around where I live. For this storm, I'd much rather be slightly further north, and closer to the M/D line.

has a very Oct 2011 feel to it. Didn't you drive north into PA for that one? 

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1 minute ago, Fozz said:

From the looks of the guidance, it seems equally dicey around where I live. For this storm, I'd much rather be slightly further north, and closer to the M/D line.

It's going to be pretty tight for your area. You won't have to go far to your north to really see a stark difference. I'm a firm believer that 700'+ elevation areas will probably see at least 2". Below that is where questions will arise. 

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29 minutes ago, mappy said:

And current WFO thinking (note the difference along the border between offices) 

 

ndfd_snow_maryland_9.png

I've noticed often the northern zone of one office will be more bullish then the southern zone of the next office up. I guess it's simple perception bias of thinking of your snowiest zone vs the next regions least snowy. 

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