nw baltimore wx Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 4 minutes ago, RUMG11 said: DT prob should have waited for the full Euro run before putting out his map, as evidenced by his tweet lol It's a "first guess" map. Certainly not his final. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 2 minutes ago, RUMG11 said: Interesting So he forecasts off euro snow maps? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 19 minutes ago, gymengineer said: I think a better analog would be 12/5/09. Or 3/14/99. 12/25/02 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 What about the Oct storm of 2011? Any similarity other than temps and a pretty good slug of moisture? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 2 minutes ago, nw baltimore wx said: It's a "first guess" map. Certainly not his final. And sometimes his final is not his final Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 22 minutes ago, H2O said: Oh just stop it. Enough. Do I need to go back and find all your "how we lookin?" type posts that can be found at times in other instances? EVERYONE craps up a thread. The LR one had tons of talk about old storms from 1979. Storm mode hasn't been kicked in so rigid clamping down on BS posts hasn't happened. I hope we go into Storm Mode in this forum just to see the utter chaos the mods would have to deal with. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 So the kissing storm looking ok? No Fukushima right. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 7 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said: Montgomery county is going to see a crazy gradient given the trends on guidance today. Areas down near you might be 1-2" at most while Germantown to the north will be 3-5" with highest over Pars Ridge and Damascus. I would kill for just a 20 mile shift south at this rate to get everyone into NoVa and southern half of the county feeling a bit more comfortable. It's the reason why we worked with LWX WFO to split the county into 2 zones. We run the zone split around 500 foot in elevation contour and it's worked really well for us, DOT, Police and Fire as well as our municipal partners. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 5 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: What about the Oct storm of 2011? Any similarity other than temps and a pretty good slug of moisture? Oct storm had temps in the upper 40s, low 50s the day before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 Here's our CWG article on the event. I'm pretty bearish as is everyone else around here. Would be nice if there was some cold air around. https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/capital-weather-gang/wp/2017/02/07/from-60s-to-snow-thursday-morning-could-be-sloppy-in-spots/?utm_term=.d95814a38044#comments Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 14 hours ago, WinterWxLuvr said: LOL. Start a thread they said. It'll be fun they said. 5 hours ago, WinterWxLuvr said: 5 hours ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Somehow, all of this is starting to fit together. 4 hours ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Me, me. Do me!! 4 hours ago, WinterWxLuvr said: I resemble that remark. 3 hours ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Excuse me? 3 hours ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Toaster 36 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: This thread is awful. It should be closed and another started....without the off topic stuff. It's unusual for me to say something like that, but when this discussion went from the storm to which group of posters would have their panties in a wad it convinced me that we need to start over. 15 total post by you in this thread so far. He's 8 of them so roughly half. Yup. But please. keep complaining on how bad a thread is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 8 minutes ago, midatlanticweather said: And sometimes his final is not his final. So true. It's really too bad he's so volatile. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 Me: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 1 minute ago, nw baltimore wx said: So true. It's really too bad he's so volatile. come now, he's only volatile once every 12 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ErinInTheSky Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 10 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: It's the reason why we worked with LWX WFO to split the county into 2 zones. We run the zone split around 500 foot in elevation contour and it's worked really well for us, DOT, Police and Fire as well as our municipal partners. I'm at 550 elevation in Northeast Gaithersburg so I'm really hoping it plays to my advantage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 maybe we should just close and delete this thread. I mean it now says just "cold rain"...that is more fitting of a caption for the subforum Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 18 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: I agree. It looks sensible. Just going off climo. This is a 2-4 type paste bomb for my area. This has all the ear-markings as one of those 2" Winchester-4" Martinsburg non-accumulating-light-snow-car-topper Stephens City storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cae Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 RGEM ensemble is generally supportive of the rain-to-snow idea for DC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 1 minute ago, Ellinwood said: Me: Your maps are always so nice to see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 30 minutes ago, BristowWx said: wasn't that a closed off 500mb bowling ball? obviously this is not...its a well placed, dynamic, and precip laden low that has no real cold to work with. Awesome storm. The ULL trailed the surface and basically swung/shot a cannonball of snow at us. It was also a much colder airmass in place. People might remember we got some accumulating snow that morning on decks/grass/cartops. No street stickage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 2 minutes ago, Ellinwood said: Me: very conservative and usually right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 1 minute ago, Ellinwood said: Me: Sad but you are usually on the mark. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 4 minutes ago, Ellinwood said: Me: I like how you give the ridges in WV/MD/PA the respect they deserve. A lot of forecasters forget that region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 5 minutes ago, BristowWx said: maybe we should just close and delete this thread. I mean it now says just "cold rain"...that is more fitting of a caption for the subforum yes, lets! I'll create the northern subforum posters only thread in return. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paleocene Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 Ellinwood, you make really nice maps. Conveys all the information one needs in a really legible format. Though the cities that appear in your layer are kind of random. Anyway, I'll hold out hope for "medium-low" confidence to trend in our favor... but ehhh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 Ellinwood right as usual. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 1 minute ago, mappy said: yes, lets! I'll create the northern subforum posters only thread in return. makes sense. good suggestion Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 8 minutes ago, Ellinwood said: Me: Nailed it. As usual. Your maps are always reasonable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 Don't know if I'll get banned for posting the SREF's but they are getting better run after run. This run had two large outliers, but the mean at DCA is 1.87" if those get removed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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