Bob Chill Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 All guidance that was SE prior to 12z has moved NW now. OTOH- precip totals spiked pretty good. All in all I'm less enthused than this time yesterday though. My gut is telling me the only way things can trend is for the worse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 Just now, leesburg 04 said: Should I come home from NY early? If you can sneak into your old leesburg house... maybe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 10 minutes ago, yoda said: NOT saying this will be like it... but didn't commutageddon have temps at 34 or so? 8 minutes ago, BTRWx said: pretty much all day before the flip I believe Commutageddon (Jan. 26, 2011) was close to that for temperatures...it was *just* above freezing through the event and shortly after, but it snowed like a bat out of hell for about 5-6 hours in the early-mid evening on the 26th (I got ~8" in that 5 hour period where I'm at, plus a power outage!). Before that main part, there was some snow in the very early morning that gave some places a couple of quick inches...then it was more or less cold drizzle/light rain much of the rest of that day before we got pasted later on. Rain followed by chunks of ice, followed by huge-ass missile-sized flakes pounding down. ETA: As was stated above, it was also quite a bit colder leading into that event. We weren't coming out of the mid 60s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 1 minute ago, WxWatcher007 said: The saving grace is that one tick colder and we're talking about a big deal around here. I think it's imperative the warm trend is halted by 0z tonight. We have no room to spare here in DC. With the dynamics models are now showing, your idea might not be too farfetched. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 Commutaggedon is a partial analog, but it was more dynamic than this system. Explosively so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 6 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: This thread is awful. It should be closed and another started....without the off topic stuff. It's unusual for me to say something like that, but when this discussion went from the storm to which group of posters would have their panties in a wad it convinced me that we need to start over. Oh just stop it. Enough. Do I need to go back and find all your "how we lookin?" type posts that can be found at times in other instances? EVERYONE craps up a thread. The LR one had tons of talk about old storms from 1979. Storm mode hasn't been kicked in so rigid clamping down on BS posts hasn't happened. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 I think a better analog would be 12/5/09. Or 3/14/99. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 1 minute ago, MN Transplant said: Commutaggedon is a partial analog, but it was more dynamic than this system. Explosively so. Indeed it was. Not a perfect comparison here other than the potential for quick hitting paste job. The dynamics of Commutageddon were off the charts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 6 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: All guidance that was SE prior to 12z has moved NW now. OTOH- precip totals spiked pretty good. All in all I'm less enthused than this time yesterday though. My gut is telling me the only way things can trend is for the worse. This is very much a situation where knowing climo and some common weather sense applies. Barring a major shift colder on the guidance (like showing D.C with sub 30 surface temps with precip falling), I wouldn't predict more than 1" on grass for inside the beltway or points south. Maybe 1-2" for you and I and then 2-6" for Mt. mappypsulosetoa which even there will be elevation dependent. Only thing holding me back from only expecting cold rain and rooting for those daytime snow showers on Thursday is the euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 2 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: Maybe, but I always lean fail if we're relying on any of the following Rates Ratios Marginal temps Thundersnow South trend We're relying on how many here? To get a decent event we'd need the cold press to be stronger than modeled, which is effectively a south trend, and rates. Both of things have a habit of not materializing in DC. This is a northern crew event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 1 minute ago, Always in Zugzwang said: Indeed it was. Not a perfect comparison here other than the potential for quick hitting paste job. The dynamics of Commutageddon were off the charts. wasn't that a closed off 500mb bowling ball? obviously this is not...its a well placed, dynamic, and precip laden low that has no real cold to work with. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 11 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: All guidance that was SE prior to 12z has moved NW now. OTOH- precip totals spiked pretty good. All in all I'm less enthused than this time yesterday though. My gut is telling me the only way things can trend is for the worse. This winter has really beat you down . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 12 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: All guidance that was SE prior to 12z has moved NW now. OTOH- precip totals spiked pretty good. All in all I'm less enthused than this time yesterday though. My gut is telling me the only way things can trend is for the worse. Agreed. No room for even a slight negative trend now for I-95 and east. As it stands it will be dicey for accumulating snow. With a deepening low, need some good ccb action for a few hours with the cold air in at the surface. Probably favors areas more N and NE. This should be a nice event up in the hinterlands of Carroll county. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 DTVaWeatherman@DTVaWeatherman Following More **ALERT** 12z TUES EURO JUST WENT BOOM!! for FEB 9- 3" in DC 5" BAL 6" PA MD border 8-10" PH NJ NYC high winds as well B word? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 Just now, BristowWx said: wasn't that a closed off 500mb bowling ball? obviously this is not...its a well placed, dynamic, and precip laden low that has no real cold to work with. I think it was. That storm definitely had convective elements, I heard several rumbles of thunder-snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 10 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: All guidance that was SE prior to 12z has moved NW now. OTOH- precip totals spiked pretty good. All in all I'm less enthused than this time yesterday though. My gut is telling me the only way things can trend is for the worse. These things tend to adjust until gametime, and past experience says the trend tends to continue. In March 2014 one of these wave boundary type things trended south and kept going right until gametime. Vice Versa in early Feb 2014 it kept bleeding north right until the last minute. I have some hope we end up north of the boundary up here but even here I am very worried that it continues to creep north in the next 24 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 DT's first map came out about an hour ago. There's a lot of text that goes with it if you want to visit his page. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 FRINGED! We need a shift south to get me excited. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 For our area, I think DTs map is actually prettt good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 7 minutes ago, nw baltimore wx said: DT's first map came out about an hour ago. There's a lot of text that goes with it if you want to visit his page. Odd map. I can drive north a couple miles for 1-3, or east/southeast a few miles for 2-5. But if I stay home its mostly rain lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 2 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: For our area, I think DTs map is actually prettt good. Yeah, me too, but I don't think precip hangs on until noon for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 6 minutes ago, RidingTheModelWithMostSnow said: This winter has really beat you down . Nah, I will always be objective. It's not looking good for my yard. I won't wear weenie glasses and dismiss the reality. I know how these things can work well or notsomuch. The trend today was unanimously in favor of notsomuch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUMG11 Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 DT prob should have waited for the full Euro run before putting out his map, as evidenced by his tweet lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 2 minutes ago, nw baltimore wx said: Yeah, me too, but I don't think precip hangs on until noon for us. Agreed. Timing seems off but I assume he's just looking at the euro and I can't see that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 4 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: For our area, I think DTs map is actually prettt good. I agree. It looks sensible. Just going off climo. This is a 2-4 type paste bomb for my area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 Just now, Bob Chill said: Nah, I will always be objective. It's not looking good for my yard. I won't wear weenie glasses and dismiss the reality. I know how these things can work well or notsomuch. The trend today was unanimously in favor of notsomuch. Montgomery county is going to see a crazy gradient given the trends on guidance today. Areas down near you might be 1-2" at most while Germantown to the north will be 3-5" with highest over Pars Ridge and Damascus. I would kill for just a 20 mile shift south at this rate to get everyone into NoVa and southern half of the county feeling a bit more comfortable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 10 minutes ago, H2O said: Oh just stop it. Enough. Do I need to go back and find all your "how we lookin?" type posts that can be found at times in other instances? EVERYONE craps up a thread. The LR one had tons of talk about old storms from 1979. Storm mode hasn't been kicked in so rigid clamping down on BS posts hasn't happened. You know, you really are terrible at this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chase Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 27 minutes ago, BTRWx said: pretty much all day before the flip It also rained that morning so the pre-treatment washed off the roads, adding to the chaos. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUMG11 Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 Interesting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 2 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: You know, you really are terrible at this. sigh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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