psuhoffman Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 1 hour ago, PennQuakerGirl said: Kissing Party? Who else is going to be kissing besides the jet streams? ...and me? Seriously though, is it...unusual for the models not to have a general consensus on the specifics of this storm with less than 48 hours to go? Every storm is different but this type of setup no, these are really difficult for models to pin down because its just a progressive system along a boundary. small changes in the boundary and strength of the vort cause big changes in the exact track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 12 minutes ago, Roger Smith said: Looking good this morning, RGEM has jumped in with a very late change but intense rates. Blend of GFS, NAM and RGEM suggests 6 to 10 inch potential near and north of I-95, trending to 2 to 6 in a zone with northern edge DCA-ACY. Northern edge on DCA? Northern edge of what? Rain? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 i dont see the euro caving. Everytime we think the euro is going to cave, it dosent move. Especially inside 60 hours. Now of course, its never the snowiest solution either lol....so there is that. for this winter, i guess its pick the least snowiest model and you will be right Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 7, 2017 Author Share Posted February 7, 2017 UKIE looks too close... 998 in SW VA at 42 and 989 over Delmarva at 48 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 That's not good. It needs to be an absolute bomb to be cold enough for snow if it's that close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUMG11 Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 Ukie tucked in...welp... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 7, 2017 Author Share Posted February 7, 2017 1 minute ago, losetoa6 said: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RDM Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 5 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Every storm is different but this type of setup no, these are really difficult for models to pin down because its just a progressive system along a boundary. small changes in the boundary and strength of the vort cause big changes in the exact track. Some of the snow maps are showing a jump just to the E of WMA along the Eastern Shore. Is that due to the Low strengthening and making more cold air? If so, if it slows down some, would that be good? Or is the strengthening helped along by the fetch from warmer water off shore - although the "warmer" water in the Atlantic has cooled a lot since Dec and early Jan. Just trying to understand what is pointing to the jump in sn to the East of us aside from the ever present DC snow hole. Tks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUMG11 Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 Just now, losetoa6 said: 980s ...that's a bomb in my book Temps must dive Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 RGEM would make many happy....fwiw. Not that it amounts to a hill o beans, but hey....looks nice. Nut Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 7, 2017 Author Share Posted February 7, 2017 1 minute ago, RUMG11 said: Temps must dive Um, not to be mean.. but you look pretty good based off the UKIE where you live... so I dunno why you are in our forum Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUMG11 Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 1 minute ago, yoda said: Um, not to be mean.. but you look pretty good based off the UKIE where you live... so I dunno why you are in our forum No worries, I gotta update my location. I'm in southern New Jersey currently. Atlantic county Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 Just now, losetoa6 said: Ukie temps 850's not out yet It probably won't be pretty (for us down here). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 4 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: 980s ...that's a bomb in my book It's 989 though. Low 980s or something into the 970s would give us a much better shot at dragging down cold air, IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 14 minutes ago, Ji said: i dont see the euro caving. Everytime we think the euro is going to cave, it dosent move. Especially inside 60 hours. Now of course, its never the snowiest solution either lol....so there is that. for this winter, i guess its pick the least snowiest model and you will be right I approve of Ji's persistence forecasting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 1 minute ago, osfan24 said: It's 989 though. Low 980s or something into the 970s would give us a much better shot at dragging down cold air, IMO. Not sure thats gonna make much diff in the end. This always was a thermally challenged event for the northern Mid Atl. Nut Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 25 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: I think it generally stays the course. Maybe a tick north. Probably it will be a bit dry compared to the rest of the 12z cycle. I agree with you for the most part. Euro has been a rock the last 2 days of runs. About the only thing I question is the dryer part. Euro has a tendency to under play precip initially only to up it towards game time. Think that may be the case here as I see the other models really start juicing up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 UKIE looks like it has less precip, which is different than the GGEM and GFS which really ramped up the precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 7, 2017 Author Share Posted February 7, 2017 UKIE is a lovely rainstorm in the low 40s... great Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DC2Winston Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 Think we have another forum divider here...PA and higher elevation versus those in the cities and east of fall line. King Climo. At this point I'll take a cartopper that looks nice for 2 hours Thursday morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 6z was improved over 0z and 12z took a little step back. This is still a very close call for our area. With colder air pressing in it's about timing. I think the jury is still out on this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 4 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: True...but at hour 48 and at 989 it's bombing out so I'm guessing mid 980s at least while still near out latitude and coast. Right but it's already moving by as us that point, and so has most of the precip. It's a case of too little, too late. For folks in Philly and especially north of there, that would probably help them out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paleocene Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 2 minutes ago, yoda said: UKIE is a lovely rainstorm in the low 40s... great Rain for everyone!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 UK does have a tendency to over amp things, that could account for its tucked in over the delmarva look. I don't see much else with that look. Euro will be telling soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 2 minutes ago, CARDC79 said: Think we have another forum divider here...PA and higher elevation versus those in the cities and east of fall line. King Climo. At this point I'll take a cartopper that looks nice for 2 hours Thursday morning. PA shouldn't be a forum divider. That division is built into the board already. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 good news is the UK would not be a forum divider, the real snow with the UK is way out of our region, looks like north of a State College to NW NJ line. It probably ends as a little snow south of there but thats where the 850 0 line is during the bulk of the precip and crashes south late. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 32 minutes ago, packfan98 said: The snow depth map looks pretty blah... And i think that is probably a best case for thus event. If i see over 2 inches on the grass i will be shocked Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DC2Winston Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 8 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: PA shouldn't be a forum divider. That division is built into the board already. You caught my tongue-cheek moment there sir. This forum seems to have more PA posters than MD/DC/VA combined. The really insightful folks (I.E.-PSU etc) aside, anyone from PA just posting deck pics and gloats should prob do so in the forum which actually lists PA - no? Apologies for the banter... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 Just now, CARDC79 said: You caught my tongue-cheek moment there sir. This forum seems to have more PA posters than MD/DC/VA combined. The really insightful folks (I.E.-PSU etc) aside, anyone from PA just posting deck pics and gloats should prob do so in the forum which actually lists PA - no? Apologies for the banter... No apologies needed. It's probably best to get it out right here and right now. I'll speak for everyone. We don't give a single F about any ob/pic from PA except for a very very select few and they know who they are. There is a designated place for those already and has been since the board formed in 2010. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 31 minutes ago, osfan24 said: That's not good. It needs to be an absolute bomb to be cold enough for snow if it's that close. 989 over OC is enough to pull in the cold air, and a pretty good location. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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