mappy Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 10 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: I'm definitely too negative and it's impacting my posting. Good post--given the volatility we're going to be on the edge of our seat for a while. Outside of Mappyland, no one should be jumping or spiking the football. ehhhh. GFS introduced warmer air in the upper levels this time. So while there is no shortage of precip, there are other problems now. 7 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: What a massive increase in qpf in one run of the gfs ...and at so close in range to the event. No way the outcome is set in stone yet. Expected from a meso model..but global at the 40 hour mark...wow Doubled the amounts! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 Just now, PennQuakerGirl said: "Paste bomb" means wet heavy snow, correct? That is correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUMG11 Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 Southern New Jersey gets shafted. What an awful spot... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 17 minutes ago, mattie g said: Need to see Cobb output for Westminster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 1 minute ago, stormtracker said: Imma only post Cobb from here on out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paleocene Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 4 minutes ago, PennQuakerGirl said: "Paste bomb" means wet heavy snow, correct? The paste bomb will also be... You know, nevermind. How about that CMC run? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 Just now, mappy said: Imma only post Cobb from here on out. Wait, you haven't been already? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 Just now, C.A.P.E. said: lol..CMC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 In all seriousness...what do we do if the UK/Euro shows marginal thermals (33-34) and heavy snow vs what the GFS/NAM is showing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 2 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Wait, you haven't been already? um, actually, sir. I had a very well thought out post this morning that included NO COBB INPUT Data so... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 Just now, stormtracker said: lol..CMC Its on its way north. It will be GFS like by 0z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 3 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: Given the totality of the guidance, I still believe you're in a good spot to see a winter wonderland iyby we shall see! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 Just now, mappy said: um, actually, sir. I had a very well thought out post this morning that included NO COBB INPUT Data so... I laughed, but had to delete that pic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 Just now, stormtracker said: I laughed, but had to delete that pic. i was going to go delete it too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 1 minute ago, stormtracker said: In all seriousness...what do we do if the UK/Euro shows marginal thermals (33-34) and heavy snow vs what the GFS/NAM is showing. Add 2 degrees to the surface and make your best guess how it plays out. Verifying below guidance on temps seems like the least likely scenario. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 Any bets on the Euro. I say north and caves to the NAM.....its time for the blind squirrel to find some Nuts. hey...I'm a nut. Nut Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 Looking good this morning, RGEM has jumped in with a very late change but intense rates. Blend of GFS, NAM and RGEM suggests 6 to 10 inch potential near and north of I-95, trending to 2 to 6 in a zone with northern edge DCA-ACY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 CMC is probably/definitely wrong but the fact it shows that much snow will drag some of the towel throwers back from the ledge I would guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 2 minutes ago, stormtracker said: In all seriousness...what do we do if the UK/Euro shows marginal thermals (33-34) and heavy snow vs what the GFS/NAM is showing. You stay emotionally invested. And deal with the inevitable crushing disappointment when it happens lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 7, 2017 Author Share Posted February 7, 2017 2 minutes ago, Roger Smith said: Looking good this morning, RGEM has jumped in with a very late change but intense rates. Blend of GFS, NAM and RGEM suggests 6 to 10 inch potential near and north of I-95, trending to 2 to 6 in a zone with northern edge DCA-ACY. I wish Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 2 minutes ago, Roger Smith said: Looking good this morning, RGEM has jumped in with a very late change but intense rates. Blend of GFS, NAM and RGEM suggests 6 to 10 inch potential near and north of I-95, trending to 2 to 6 in a zone with northern edge DCA-ACY. 6-10 inches of what exactly? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 7, 2017 Author Share Posted February 7, 2017 15 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: CMC is a paste bomb for much of the area. 5-8" per wb maps. I wish it was more reliable... it looks so pretty Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 2 minutes ago, pasnownut said: Any bets on the Euro. I say north and caves to the NAM.....its time for the blind squirrel to find some Nuts. hey...I'm a nut. Nut I think it generally stays the course. Maybe a tick north. Probably it will be a bit dry compared to the rest of the 12z cycle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUMG11 Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 Euro will be the nail in the coffin if it trends north... A CMC/RGEM/EURO agreement is a much nicer feeling against the Nam at this point Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 1 minute ago, C.A.P.E. said: I think it generally stays the course. Maybe a tick north. Probably it will be a bit dry compared to the rest of the 12z cycle. Yeah I can see that as a possiblity. it aint the Doc fr nothin ya know. would be nice to see the NAM crew get one though. Nut Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 6 minutes ago, ravensrule said: If you are right i will let you kiss Mappy's nuts. I'll pass on you offering my nuts to anyone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 1 minute ago, mappy said: I'll pass on you offering my nuts to anyone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 6 minutes ago, yoda said: I wish it was more reliable... it looks so pretty The snow depth map looks pretty blah... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tstate21 Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 Just now, PennQuakerGirl said: And where does the GFS fit into the picture? The GFS would be in the NAM camp. At this point the Euro and UKMET will be pretty telling to see where we stand. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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