BTRWx Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 1 minute ago, DCTeacherman said: At 48 hours though 996 off ocean city, maybe we could get some backend love. That sounding will be interesting to see! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 1 minute ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Toaster This is going to be interesting. if the Euro comes in more amped and north adn I dont know what to expect here on the line. NAM has been consistant w/ precip fields, but has been ticking south. Not sure where to put my money. Nut Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ErinInTheSky Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 Whew lawd. 48 dumps snow on me in Gaithersburg and washes out DC with rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 I'd be shocked if the Euro busted as badly as the gfs suggests it will. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 1 minute ago, supernovasky said: Whew lawd. 48 dumps snow on me in Gaithersburg and washes out DC with rain. lol. This guy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 Well, the warm and wet aspect has been covered here. Still has some streamer love during the day on Thurs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 1 minute ago, supernovasky said: Whew lawd. 48 dumps snow on me in Gaithersburg and washes out DC with rain. maybe a burst at the end for you at like 34 degrees, but the precip is pretty much done. It's a bad run for most of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ErinInTheSky Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 Just now, Deck Pic said: maybe a burst at the end for you at like 34 degrees, but the precip is pretty much done. It's a bad run for most of us. Yeah. Nothing accumulating unfortunately Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 GFS came 30 miles north w/ low placement but precip shield notably more northwest. R/S line seemed similar to 6z. Nut edit....and 4mb deeper of DE coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 3 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: I'd be shocked if the Euro busted as badly as the gfs suggests it will. I told my parents in CT last night they were getting snow from this and we weren't even though the euro said otherwise. Looks like that was a good call. I am still a bit surprised how the the low bombs on the last few runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 Just now, WxWatcher007 said: A truly catastrophic run in a catastrophic winter. Need the ukie and euro to hold. I'm kinda with winterwxluvr, hard to believe the euro busts this badly. Now we wait...again.. Day 9 buddy. It's coming this time! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 3 minutes ago, PennQuakerGirl said: @hour 48 on the 12z GFS, is that little blip of yellow right at the PA/MD/DE border just an artifact or is that a tiny area of heavy rain? And @stormtracker: sorry! Didn't mean to get off topic! Dynamics at their best! Heavy rain and snow would transition to heavy snow. Good spot to be in! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paulythegun Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 If all else fails on this storm (not saying it will), but at least we have another opportunity potentially late next week. Back on topic--maybe if we don't warm as much as anticipated tomorrow, getting our temps back to respectability for snow won't be as difficult. I say this since we have seen this before right? So I'm now also rooting for a bust on high temps tomorrow. 3rd cup of coffee just kicked in...Yeah the little details matter at the surface for borderline events. One problem is that tonight we're not going to get any cooling. It's cloudy with a chance of light rain. If that breaks up before it gets here and we get several hours of clear skies...Maybe a big difference.I hate myself. This is such a weenie post Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 9 minutes ago, pasnownut said: This is going to be interesting. if the Euro comes in more amped and north adn I dont know what to expect here on the line. NAM has been consistant w/ precip fields, but has been ticking south. Not sure where to put my money. Nut The model with the least snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 Just now, WxWatcher007 said: A truly catastrophic run in a catastrophic winter. Need the ukie and euro to hold. I'm kinda with winterwxluvr, hard to believe the euro busts this badly. Now we wait...again.. We're not within 24-hours though. At 48-hrs out, a 30-50 mile adjustment isn't that bad a bust. That's all we've seen so far in this 12Z model suite-- the GFS is warm because it's on the northern edge of the models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 1 minute ago, paulythegun said: Yeah the little details matter at the surface for borderline events. One problem is that tonight we're not going to get any cooling. It's cloudy with a chance of light rain. If that breaks up before it gets here and we get several hours of clear skies...Maybe a big difference. I hate myself. This is such a weenie post Tomorrow's temps before sundown will be key imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 QPF is double IMBY from 06z to 12z runs. Shame thermals suck. column isn't completely cold IMBY until 12z Thursday, already wasted close to 1" qpf by then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PivotPoint Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 Ugh.. We all knew this what going to happen. I'd be shock if euro doesn't come to its senses... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 2 minutes ago, gymengineer said: We're not within 24-hours though. At 48-hrs out, a 30-50 mile adjustment isn't that bad a bust. That's all we've seen so far in this 12Z model suite-- the GFS is warm because it's on the northern edge of the models. Good post. The gfs came in more amped in front of the vort so a NW shift was guaranteed. But is that the final solution? Flatten heights just a little leading in the GFS would have looked exactly like the euro. We're at the stage where a decent shot of precip is pretty much a lock but track of the low won't be locked for 24 hours imho. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 3 minutes ago, mappy said: QPF is double IMBY from 06z to 12z runs. Shame thermals suck. column isn't completely cold IMBY until 12z Thursday, already wasted close to 1" qpf by then. Need to see Cobb output for Westminster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 15 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: I'd be shocked if the Euro busted as badly as the gfs suggests it will. This year? I wouldn't. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 Just now, mattie g said: Need to see Cobb output for Westminster. Not out yet, smartass Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 Just now, Bob Chill said: Good post. The gfs came in more amped in front of the vort so a NW shift was guaranteed. But is that the final solution? Flatten heights just a little leading in the GFS would have looked exactly like the euro. We're at the stage where a decent shot of precip is pretty much a lock but track of the low won't be locked for 24 hours imho. And even if the GFS solution verifies, the Euro would still have been leading in depicting the precip bomb general scenario, with the details (where does accumulating snow start) worked out later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 Just now, mappy said: Not out yet, smartass I can only go with gallows humor now. I have literally nothing else to add. Embrace the darkness... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 Just now, mattie g said: I can only go with gallows humor now. I have literally nothing else to add. Embrace the darkness... no. i still have a chance dammit! I AM NOT GIVING UP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 No warm 800 layer like the NAM. Still too warm for DC, but not as bad of a mess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 I still haven't given up hope on this one because if you can get a stronger storm while also keeping it far enough south, most of us could really prosper. That said, that's an unlikely combo and chances are it is rain to slop in the cities and the favored spots pick up a few inches, maybe more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 1 minute ago, losetoa6 said: What a massive increase in qpf in one run of the gfs ...and at so close in range to the event. No way the outcome is set in stone yet. Expected from a meso model..but global at the 40 hour mark...wow GFS has been very inconsistent the last 8 runs. It's kept the same general idea intact but too much variability run over run to take it as gospel. Euro has been very consistent for 3-4 runs. A shift NW @ 12z wouldn't surprise me (I kinda expect it) but the euro seems to have the best handle on this one so far. Canadian shifted NW and warmer too so 2 for 2 with the globals so far this AM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 CMC is a paste bomb for much of the area. 5-8" per wb maps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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