PivotPoint Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 5 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Is everybody just ignoring this? The NAM was awful. I don't want to wishcast... although I agree that sounding doesn't inspire a lot of confidence. I think the models (ukie, 6zgfs) have been keyed in on the intensification portion of the event. If it does rapidly intensify in the right spot I think we can overcome the marginal look of that sounded. I've always thought a 2-3" thump would be my bar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 4km NAM Please Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 4 minutes ago, BristowWx said: You don't have to go too far north to get crushed. Psu should be pleased. He's probably sweating it too. I know I am. WE most likely will start as rain as well though we have a far better chance of switching over and quicker then those down in the cities. Those snowfall maps? Pretty worthless when you are waiting for cold to seep in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 10 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Is everybody just ignoring this? The NAM was awful. No, but compared to 0z this was a vast improvement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 I thought NAM was a significant improvement. It might not do much for those close to the cities, especially DC, but for Mt. Parkton and Manchester folks, it's getting close to a pretty good little storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 2 minutes ago, MD Snow said: No, but compared to 0z this was a vast improvement. Hah. It wasn't good. We could all be counting rain drops - even out here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 Just now, PennQuakerGirl said: So how are we doing with the whole "PQG-Has-To-Kiss-Every-Member-of-This-Subforum-If-We-Get-Six-Inches-Or-More" thing? we meant .6...pesky decimal point Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 1 minute ago, PennQuakerGirl said: So how are we doing with the whole "PQG-Has-To-Kiss-Every-Member-of-This-Subforum-If-We-Get-Six-Inches-Or-More" thing? Looks like only Mappy, PSU and showmethesnow will be getting any action. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 So I'm thinking this is ok? https://weather.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/600_100.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 Just now, osfan24 said: I thought NAM was a significant improvement. It might not do much for those close to the cities, especially DC, but for Mt. Parkton and Manchester folks, it's getting close to a pretty good little storm. That's all you can ask for at this stage, seeing improvements each run. It's almost a given at this point that most around the cities will start as rain and probably stay that way for a good portion of the event. The question then becomes how quickly the cold air can get in here so that we see can see a switch over. And with that I have seen improvements. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 7 minutes ago, mappy said: 4km NAM Please i'll take that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 B&W RGEM that Randy posted looks like the Ukie to me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anotherman Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 7 minutes ago, PennQuakerGirl said: So how are we doing with the whole "PQG-Has-To-Kiss-Every-Member-of-This-Subforum-If-We-Get-Six-Inches-Or-More" thing? I would answer that question, but the rest of the forum would not take kindly to it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 3 minutes ago, sauss06 said: i'll take that we may lose a little qpf as rain at onset, but we are right at freezing, column looks good. ~.9 qpf for me, ~1.3 qpf for you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 7, 2017 Author Share Posted February 7, 2017 4 minutes ago, stormtracker said: So I'm thinking this is ok? https://weather.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/600_100.gif Looks good to me... never thought you would post a B and W RGEM map though... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 Just now, mappy said: we may lose a little qpf at onset, but we are right at freezing, column looks good. ~.9qpf for me, ~1.3 qpf for you awesome! Might be the bright Cheery spot of the year!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 5 minutes ago, ravensrule said: Looks like only Mappy, PSU and showmethesnow will be getting any action. Excuse me? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 2 minutes ago, yoda said: Looks good to me... never thought you would post a B and W RGEM map though... It's the first one that updated...the rest are still updating Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 1 minute ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Excuse me? lol, i guess the 6" the 4km NAM gives you doesn't count. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thanatos_I_Am Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 This one is gonna sting for us DC folk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 Just now, Thanatos_I_Am said: This one is gonna sting for us DC folk. maybe, but I slowly backed away after I approached the plank Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 rgem is warmer/further north than 6z. Not a good run/trend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 19 minutes ago, mappy said: 4km NAM Please Only certainties at this point, 10:1 snow maps will be way overdone, and the 4km NAM will be way overdone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 Just now, Bob Chill said: rgem is warmer/further north than 6z. Not a good run/trend Oh. Didn't even compare. Getting close to that time... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cae Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 RGEM starts as rain in the cities. Here's the changeover. http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/pcpn_type_gem_reg.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 RGEM color maps updating, 50 degrees as precip starts in DC, no way we're accumulating if we start at 50. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 1 minute ago, Amped said: Only certainties at this point, 10:1 snow maps will be way overdone, and the 4km NAM will be way overdone. pssst. David Bowie died. So did Prince. And MJ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 I'll take what the hi-res NAM delivers and run with it. I'm getting sick of the brown grass, day after day, week after week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 Not saying anything that's gonna surprise anyone but this is gonna take a miracle for the cities. Its screaming subforum divider. I'm taking my gravestone and heading over to the Panic Room. Analysis wise, nobody seemed to mention the EPS yet so I guess I'll try and be somewhat useful... The mean improved for everyone, 2.5" now approaches NW D.C., the 2" line is safely south of Fairfax. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 3 minutes ago, cae said: RGEM starts as rain in the cities. Here's the changeover. http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/pcpn_type_gem_reg.html Looks like a real nailbiter IMBY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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