mattie g Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 On 2/7/2017 at 3:16 PM, Thanatos_I_Am said: This one is gonna sting for us DC folk. Expand I won't care when it's 60 and partly cloudy 48 hours later. Less mud and no melting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 On 2/7/2017 at 3:23 PM, mattie g said: I won't care when it's 60 and partly cloudy 48 hours later. Less mud and no melting. Expand Yeah this one isn't going to sting too badly for me actually. The writing has been on the wall for this one all along for DC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 On 2/7/2017 at 3:22 PM, NorthArlington101 said: Not saying anything that's gonna surprise anyone but this is gonna take a miracle for the cities. Its screaming subforum divider. I'm taking my gravestone and heading over to the Panic Room. Analysis wise, nobody seemed to mention the EPS yet so I guess I'll try and be somewhat useful... The mean improved for everyone, 2.5" now approaches NW D.C., the 2" line is safely south of Fairfax. Expand I think someone actually said just that. Good consensus analysis! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 7, 2017 Author Share Posted February 7, 2017 I know Bob said RGEM was ugly... but Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 FWIW- Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cae Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 On 2/7/2017 at 3:22 PM, Fozz said: Looks like a real nailbiter IMBY. Expand You and me both. Have you seen the NAM? 3km and 4km NAMs look better for us, but it's still close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 On 2/7/2017 at 3:24 PM, DCTeacherman said: Yeah this one isn't going to sting to be badly for me actually. The writing has been on the wall for this one all along for DC. Expand Couldn't agree more. At this point, I'd be happy with a little dusting or just to see flakes falling from the sky. I'll actually be happy if areas north and west of the cities get a nice little paste job. Climo says they deserve it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 Here's the 12z RGEM with the Kuchera ratio: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 On 2/7/2017 at 3:25 PM, WxWatcher007 said: Bob's right, but I think in the cities we'd still sign on the dotted line. Expand I think people are overthinking things right now. All guidance has showed us walking the line since our first discussion on this a couple days ago. Nothing has changed. Some of the posts seem like breaking news. lol. Guidance is slowly converging on a solution. Which so far the euro has been the most steady and all other guidance has been moving that direction. I'm sure the euro will have a shift @ 12z. And I would think the odds are against a shift towards colder/snowier. All I can root for is the most precip possible and let the rest just play out and not get hung up every couple hours when new "breaking news" comes out. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 On 2/7/2017 at 3:27 PM, yoda said: I know Bob said RGEM was ugly... but Expand Yeah the RGEM actually gets DC comfortably below freezing while it's still precipitating. I'm skeptical though. 38 degrees and rain feels like a more realistic end to this storm than 30 degrees and snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 On 2/7/2017 at 3:28 PM, cae said: You and me both. Have you seen the NAM? 3km and 4km NAMs look better for us, but it's still close. Expand Yeah, it's really close. I'd be happy to just see enough snow to whiten everything and get some nice rates early Thursday morning. Getting 4-6" would be a sweet bonus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 Playing with an interesting tool on WxBELL, here is the ens probability stuff for locations 1" DCA: 70% Dale City: 60% Winchester: 80% Baltimore: 80% The Mountains of NE MD: 80% 3" DCA: 30% Dale City: 20% Winchester: 50% Baltimore: 30% The Mountains of NE MD: 40-50% .5" (Total Precip) DCA: 50% Dale City: 50% Winchester: 60% Baltimore: 60% The Mountains of NE MD: 60% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 On 2/7/2017 at 3:29 PM, Bob Chill said: I think people are overthinking things right now. All guidance has showed us walking the line since our first discussion on this a couple days ago. Nothing has changed. Some of the posts seem like breaking news. lol. Guidance is slowly converging on a solution. Which so far the euro has been the most steady and all other guidance has been moving that direction. I'm sure the euro will have a shift @ 12z. And I would think the odds are against a shift towards colder/snowier. All I can root for is the most precip possible and let the rest just play out and not get hung up every couple hours when new "breaking news" comes out. lol Expand Definitely agree, Bob. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 On 2/7/2017 at 3:27 PM, yoda said: I know Bob said RGEM was ugly... but Expand I didn't say it was ugly. I just pointed out that is was slower with the cold pressing in and further north with the low vs the 6z run. That's not a good trend regardless of the specific output. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cae Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 On 2/7/2017 at 3:29 PM, packfan98 said: Here's the 12z RGEM with the Kuchera ratio: Expand The Kuchera map looks similar to the 10:1 map on the RGEM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 On 2/7/2017 at 3:17 PM, losetoa6 said: " Kissing party at PSU'S house ...all are welcome....lol Expand If he's kissing..... Im out. Nut Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 7, 2017 Author Share Posted February 7, 2017 On 2/7/2017 at 3:32 PM, Bob Chill said: I didn't say it was ugly. I just pointed out that is was slower with the cold pressing in and further north with the low vs the 6z run. That's not a good trend regardless of the specific output. Expand Oh, my mistake then. I apologize Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RichmondTarHeel Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 I guess we'll have to see if those high temps actually verify tomorrow. I'd feel much better about my snow chances if I only reach, say 60 degree instead of the forecasted 65. If we go over 65, I'm just gonna pack up my snow boots for the rest of the year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 On 2/7/2017 at 3:31 PM, PennQuakerGirl said: Isn't this one of those events that might come down to nowcasting in terms of pockets of higher accumulations? (Just because it seems like there are a lot of moving parts) Expand That's always involved, just more-so for some than others. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 On 2/7/2017 at 3:31 PM, PennQuakerGirl said: Isn't this one of those events that might come down to nowcasting in terms of pockets of higher accumulations? (Just because it seems like there are a lot of moving parts) Expand yes always nowcasting especially without cold in place. I would think you have a better than good chance to see more than a couple of inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 On 2/7/2017 at 3:29 PM, Bob Chill said: I think people are overthinking things right now. All guidance has showed us walking the line since our first discussion on this a couple days ago. Nothing has changed. Some of the posts seem like breaking news. lol. Guidance is slowly converging on a solution. Which so far the euro has been the most steady and all other guidance has been moving that direction. I'm sure the euro will have a shift @ 12z. And I would think the odds are against a shift towards colder/snowier. All I can root for is the most precip possible and let the rest just play out and not get hung up every couple hours when new "breaking news" comes out. lol Expand Meh. Most of the news is fake anyway. Lol. Fingers crossed for a MoCo/HoCo death band of slop... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 On 2/7/2017 at 3:37 PM, BristowWx said: yes always nowcasting especially without cold in place. I would think you have a better than good chance to see more than a couple of inches. Expand No RavensRule, no. Seriously. And not trying to be a meanie, but can yall move the kissing stuff to the banter thread. Thankies Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 GFS more amped and warmer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 Well put Mr. Chill. this ones always been a nail biter, but fortunately there are enough dynamics that can surpise/overcome. To answer kissygirls question...yes, there will likely be a little nowcasting/surprises, but only if the storm stayes amped...and your close to the line on this one. No big changes likely at this juncture. Too close to game time. Nut Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 GFS looks like a stronger storm with more precip on the NW side, low position slightly north of 6z run at 42. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 On 2/7/2017 at 3:39 PM, Bob Chill said: GFS more amped and warmer. Expand Good..I needed that to put me/us out of my/our misery. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 On 2/7/2017 at 3:39 PM, Bob Chill said: GFS more amped and warmer. Expand Toaster Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 At 48 hours though 996 off ocean city, maybe we could get some backend love. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 The gfs is warmer, though the qpf behind the gradient is noteworthy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 GFS would have to be almost no snow out here. Pops a low right over Roanoke it looks like. I'm skeptical of that, but whatever. I'm cool with rain on this as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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