CoastalWx Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Cool, thx. So in the convergence zone, the best surface precip will be just the nw side since the air now has to sink downwards...correct? Well kind of, but not for that reason. In the nrn hemi..things tend to tilt to the left or in this case..think W-NW as you go up into the atmosphere. So for instance, a parcel lifting through 700mb is probably lifting up, but to the W or WNW in this case until it gets to the point where the atmosphere cannot support the upward motion. Sometimes I have found that the best action is just NW of where H7 closes off. But remember we have strong frontogenesis from 850mb through 500mb...a lot of space to cover. So sometimes it is not that easy as saying...oh just look at H7. In this case it is because the DGZ is close to this level and the behavior of this level will dictate upward or down motion through the DGZ. In super cold atmospheres..looking at 850mb is sometimes good to determine snow...but in this case it's like H7-H5. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 So at this early hour in the event, the meaty looking precip shield by PIT matches the RAP deformation axis at 700 mb nearly perfectly. Fast forward to 15z tomorrow and the RAP has the deformation axis running from DXR to BAF to MHT. I'd hit that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 1 minute ago, OceanStWx said: So at this early hour in the event, the meaty looking precip shield matches the RAP deformation axis at 700 mb nearly perfectly. Fast forward to 15z tomorrow and the RAP has the deformation axis running from DXR to BAF to MHT. I'd hit that. Um.....I don't know what to say or do anymore. You had me at hello. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 12 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Well kind of, but not for that reason. In the nrn hemi..things tend to tilt to the left or in this case..think W-NW as you go up into the atmosphere. So for instance, a parcel lifting through 700mb is probably lifting up, but to the W or WNW in this case until it gets to the point where the atmosphere cannot support the upward motion. Sometimes I have found that the best action is just NW of where H7 closes off. But remember we have strong frontogenesis from 850mb through 500mb...a lot of space to cover. So sometimes it is not that easy as saying...oh just look at H7. In this case it is because the DGZ is close to this level and the behavior of this level will dictate upward or down motion through the DGZ. In super cold atmospheres..looking at 850mb is sometimes good to determine snow...but in this case it's like H7-H5. Understood. Last one, so when slicing layers from 500 to 850mb, and then analyzing frontogenesis for each....if I picture it correctly....since they're not vertically stacked....how does that affect the surface (meaning the convergence being in different spots)? I know its not an easy cut and dry answer. but, I would presume the 850 layer takes precedent? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ryanjn Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 00z ARW and NMM have nearly twice the QPF as the 12z. Southern Plymouth and Bristol Counties getting buried. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 UkieGW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 6 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Understood. Last one, so when slicing layers from 500 to 850mb, and then analyzing frontogenesis for each....if I picture it correctly....since they're not vertically stacked....how does that affect the surface (meaning the convergence being in different spots)? I know its not an easy cut and dry answer. but, I would presume the 850 layer takes precedent? These winter storms are usually sloped fronts, which is a good thing. The slope gives you broad ascent over a larger area. That's why you don't get one single band of snow and nothing else. You get a more intense band but snow fills in around it because you have f-gen at many levels that are spaced across different areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 4 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Understood. Last one, so when slicing layers from 500 to 850mb, and then analyzing frontogenesis for each....if I picture it correctly....since they're not vertically stacked....how does that affect the surface (meaning the convergence being in different spots)? I know its not an easy cut and dry answer. but, I would presume the 850 layer takes precedent? Well that's why we use soundings to analyze where the best upward vertical motion is (a result from strong fronto)..because more than likely that is where most of the precip is being generated. In our case..usually people like to look at 850mb because that can be a good proxy for a conveyor belt that develops and helps air eventually lift through 700 and 500mb. Everyone talks about good 850 inflow because it helps advect warm air and moisture in. This air can then be forced to rise up and generate precip. In general..I don't look at 850mb stuff often except for winds and temps. Only if it were super cold like Jan 2014 would I look at things like VV at 850mb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 Starting suspect I get squeezed...something like 13-15", while the 18"+ amounts are through CT-ORH-S NH, and the CJ areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 3 minutes ago, dryslot said: UkieGW Wow that is beautiful...game on!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NeonPeon Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 5 minutes ago, ryanjn said: 00z ARW and NMM have nearly twice the QPF as the 12z. Southern Plymouth and Bristol Counties getting buried. How am I meant to sleep if you all keep posting pornography. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Starting suspect I get squeezed...something like 13-15", while the 18"+ amounts are through CT-ORH-S NH, and the CJ areas. dont go to that dark place ray and yes i was wondering the same but i dont hate our locale Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 Good sh*t, thank you both! Screenshot saved for later guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rnaude241 Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 7 minutes ago, ryanjn said: 00z ARW and NMM have nearly twice the QPF as the 12z. Southern Plymouth and Bristol Counties getting buried. I'll take that here in Plymouth County. Wow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 8 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: dont go to that dark place ray and yes i was wondering the same Something that isn't impressive relatively speaking, yet heavy enough that you draw the ire of others if you convey dissapointment. I don't trust cold storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 9 minutes ago, dryslot said: UkieGW Congrats Plymouth and Bristol counties. Wow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 1 minute ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: Congrats Plymouth and Bristol counties. Wow Congrats just about everybody on that in SNE!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 Ray has a point but it's kind of feast or famine and who can predict? He could get 20 inches while Woburn bets 9 or vice versa. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 This thing looks great on radar already...and she's just getting going. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 1 minute ago, weathafella said: Ray has a point but it's kind of feast or famine and who can predict? He could get 20 inches while Woburn bets 9 or vice versa. That's always the deal with dynamic noreasters though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ryanjn Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 Models have been consistently showing a lack of a snow hole over RI. Just something odd I noticed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 2 minutes ago, weathafella said: Ray has a point but it's kind of feast or famine and who can predict? He could get 20 inches while Woburn bets 9 or vice versa. I hate any element of CJ. Nothing good will ever come of it here. Mark my words.....I'll get enough so that folks will b*tch if I complain, but it will be relatively underwhelming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 Sooner or later climo will remember that ne MA is snowier than se MA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I hate any element of CJ. Nothing good will ever come of it here. Mark my words.....I'll get enough so that folks will b*tch if I complain, but it will be relatively underwhelming. But there really isn't a cj component. Luck of the draw. I rarely sit under a good band but usually I'm far enough away to avoid exhaust. 12-14 to me would be nirvana. Kev may get 19-good for him. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 Just now, weathafella said: But there really isn't a cj component. Luck of the draw. I rarely sit under a good band but usually I'm far enough away to avoid exhaust. 12-14 to me would be nirvana. Kiev may get 19-good for him. There certainly is down near KPYM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 6 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: Congrats just about everybody on that in SNE!! glass half full approach, me likey. He looks at that map and sees himself being screwed cuz 10 miles south has one more darker color than him. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 Just now, weathafella said: But there really isn't a cj component. Luck of the draw. I rarely sit under a good band but usually I'm far enough away to avoid exhaust. 12-14 to me would be nirvana. Kiev may get 19-good for him. Ray isn't happy unless he is the jack or near-jack. Eveyrone has their thing, and his is the jackpot...he'd be absolutely ecstatic if he got 13" and surrounding areas got 10", but if he got 13" while nearby got 16"....bummer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 I think most people see double digits. I don't think it's going to be like 23" in one town and like 9" the town over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: There certainly is down near KPYM. I didn't look close enough but I didn't see that's cj enhancement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: Ray isn't happy unless he is the jack or near-jack. Eveyrone has their thing, and his is the jackpot...he'd be absolutely ecstatic if he got 13" and surrounding areas got 10", but if he got 13" while nearby got 16"....bummer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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