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February 9th Coastal Storm Discussion


Baroclinic Zone

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17 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

The more I look at this I lean toward a low track closer to the coast...

The primary boundary is aligning parallel to the upper M/A NE coasts within 50 naut miles an is nearly stationary ... that the last ob still initialized it as  cold front.  

- for one, it is nearly parallel to a mid level wind field that is veering aloft as we type and will continue to do so overnight as this trough tightens up and tips the mid llv flow more S-N offshore.

- there are modest pressure rises taking place east of the boundary ... that's not really sending vibes across like it's marching out to sea exactly. 

The best thermal gradient exists in the 850 mb level ..what's new, but as the q-v forcing rips overhead and that level closes off and deepens quickly as a result, I suspect models such as the NAM are too far E with the surface low... Seems the model is too vertically tilted owing to putting too much emphasis on the vestigial primary boundary to track its surface reflection. Maybe..

This system's deep layer structure/evolution would provide for banded heavier QPF embedded in the general zygote CCB head, but it would matter if the system were better vertically integrated because of feed-back processes.  Not that we need those exactly to get what people are after.  You almost don't want this system to be too strong too soon, because it could be too fast and not enough time for instability parameters to gain traction farther west.  You end up with an intense nucleus that way... But that's speculation.

 

Water vapor seems to show a bit more digging than depicted on UL charts

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I have not read every post in this thread so apologies if this subject has been discussed ... storm surge potential? or would the rapid changes in wind direction negate that to some extent? The moon is full just 36h after mid-storm (at 0034z 11th), by the way it will be in a "deep penumbral" eclipse mode then (Friday evening 7-8 pm if it clears for you). 

The way the models look, would say that winds will rapidly increase from ENE then back to NNE along most coasts, that could be fairly bad from Boston south in particular for storm surge around mid-day high tide Thursday.

My subjective guess on snowfall -- 18 to 24 inches for most tapering to 12 to 18 w MA. 

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32 minutes ago, wxsniss said:

Thanks for all the comments everyone. Lurking > posting due to work but good stuff as always.

For those learning about being in good "cross hairs"... (Mets correct or add anything)

Nice sounding for KBOS off 18z NAM.

1) Dendritic growth zone (DGZ, labeled in blue circle), assuming -10˚C to -20˚C (purple lines), the temperature range at which optimal crystal growth occurs.

2) Within the DGZ, the green line (dewpoint) and red line (temperature) overlap, indicated a saturated column within the DGZ.

3) OMEGA bars on the left indicate upward vertical motion (UVV).

4) The area of maximum UVV (yellow box) colocalizes with the saturated area within the DGZ, parameters for heavy snow with good snow growth.

 

nam_2017020818_024_KBOS_edited.png

Fantastic post. Thanks a bunch.

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9 minutes ago, Roger Smith said:

I have not read every post in this thread so apologies if this subject has been discussed ... storm surge potential? or would the rapid changes in wind direction negate that to some extent? The moon is full just 36h after mid-storm (at 0034z 11th), by the way it will be in a "deep penumbral" eclipse mode then (Friday evening 7-8 pm if it clears for you). 

The way the models look, would say that winds will rapidly increase from ENE then back to NNE along most coasts, that could be fairly bad from Boston south in particular for storm surge around mid-day high tide Thursday.

My subjective guess on snowfall -- 18 to 24 inches for most tapering to 12 to 18 w MA. 

:weenie:

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23 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

just when I thought tuantflizz has boarded the bus....

 

79f17cc94e36820bce86192ba127df1d7f54c723

That's 2 of the last 3 Winters of this is epic haha.  

 

I'm PRAYING for that RI Snowhole because I won't be there.  I'm sick to my atomic that this Already has been THE Week to be home in my life and I have missed it.  I can NOT miss my Favorite Kind of Snowstorm too in a 12"+ Bombogenesis 3" per hour.  Better be an RI bust.   

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41 minutes ago, eyewall said:

It is game over here for the 2nd year in a row. I don't want to hear any complaints about drifting or that you got 8 inches instead of 14.

Sent from my VS987 using Tapatalk
 

Sorry man.  I hope you get clobbered soon.  I din't realize that BTV averages 81" per year.  Wow!  Hopefully the CP, HV snow drought ends soon.  FYI, my daughter is probably going to UVM next year.  

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