RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 just when I thought tuantflizz has boarded the bus.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 3 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said: TauntonBlizzard is rattled Like Arthur Blank and his Wife? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ackwaves Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 17 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: The more I look at this I lean toward a low track closer to the coast... The primary boundary is aligning parallel to the upper M/A NE coasts within 50 naut miles an is nearly stationary ... that the last ob still initialized it as cold front. - for one, it is nearly parallel to a mid level wind field that is veering aloft as we type and will continue to do so overnight as this trough tightens up and tips the mid llv flow more S-N offshore. - there are modest pressure rises taking place east of the boundary ... that's not really sending vibes across like it's marching out to sea exactly. The best thermal gradient exists in the 850 mb level ..what's new, but as the q-v forcing rips overhead and that level closes off and deepens quickly as a result, I suspect models such as the NAM are too far E with the surface low... Seems the model is too vertically tilted owing to putting too much emphasis on the vestigial primary boundary to track its surface reflection. Maybe.. This system's deep layer structure/evolution would provide for banded heavier QPF embedded in the general zygote CCB head, but it would matter if the system were better vertically integrated because of feed-back processes. Not that we need those exactly to get what people are after. You almost don't want this system to be too strong too soon, because it could be too fast and not enough time for instability parameters to gain traction farther west. You end up with an intense nucleus that way... But that's speculation. Water vapor seems to show a bit more digging than depicted on UL charts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BRSno Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 1 hour ago, CoastalWx said: I would suggest measuring yourself because Logan obs are sometimes questionable. Yesterday they slanted that ruler a bit. Such a pet peeve of mine, they're always so inconsistent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 1 minute ago, MJHUB said: always with the RI snow hole, why is that? the Bay screwing things up? Really screwed the pooch in 78 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 1 minute ago, JC-CT said: True don't listen to me. I've never drank beer from a jug. There are also Growleretts (32 oz glass) and Crowlers (32oz cans). Get hipster or get lost. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 3 minutes ago, JC-CT said: True don't listen to me. I've never drank beer from a jug. Its a scuba tank using the nichols ratio Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 9, 2017 Author Share Posted February 9, 2017 2 minutes ago, dryslot said: Like Arthur Blank and his Wife? Never to be seen or heard from again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 1 minute ago, dryslot said: Its a scuba tank using the nichols ratio See, that I've done Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 chucking them left and right on my blog now... http://www.nbcconnecticut.com/weather/stories/Snowstorm-Turning-Into-a-Beast-413225603.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 I have not read every post in this thread so apologies if this subject has been discussed ... storm surge potential? or would the rapid changes in wind direction negate that to some extent? The moon is full just 36h after mid-storm (at 0034z 11th), by the way it will be in a "deep penumbral" eclipse mode then (Friday evening 7-8 pm if it clears for you). The way the models look, would say that winds will rapidly increase from ENE then back to NNE along most coasts, that could be fairly bad from Boston south in particular for storm surge around mid-day high tide Thursday. My subjective guess on snowfall -- 18 to 24 inches for most tapering to 12 to 18 w MA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 32 minutes ago, wxsniss said: Thanks for all the comments everyone. Lurking > posting due to work but good stuff as always. For those learning about being in good "cross hairs"... (Mets correct or add anything) Nice sounding for KBOS off 18z NAM. 1) Dendritic growth zone (DGZ, labeled in blue circle), assuming -10˚C to -20˚C (purple lines), the temperature range at which optimal crystal growth occurs. 2) Within the DGZ, the green line (dewpoint) and red line (temperature) overlap, indicated a saturated column within the DGZ. 3) OMEGA bars on the left indicate upward vertical motion (UVV). 4) The area of maximum UVV (yellow box) colocalizes with the saturated area within the DGZ, parameters for heavy snow with good snow growth. Fantastic post. Thanks a bunch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 32 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: That SW CT band lines up well with the convergence Ryan posted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 3 minutes ago, CT Rain said: chucking them left and right on my blog now... http://www.nbcconnecticut.com/weather/stories/Snowstorm-Turning-Into-a-Beast-413225603.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MarkO Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 Ryan's "really, really, really impressed with how this storm is shaping up." Not bad for Mr. Debbie Downer, CT Rain. Edit, Didn't realize he's already posted here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 Did BOX reign in some of their maps? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 2 minutes ago, MarkO said: Ryan's "really, really, really impressed with how this storm is shaping up." Not bad for Mr. Debbie Downer, CT Rain. I'm normally amped for the big ones. I just don't get excited for storms with 3" of slop that Kevin drools over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 9 minutes ago, Roger Smith said: I have not read every post in this thread so apologies if this subject has been discussed ... storm surge potential? or would the rapid changes in wind direction negate that to some extent? The moon is full just 36h after mid-storm (at 0034z 11th), by the way it will be in a "deep penumbral" eclipse mode then (Friday evening 7-8 pm if it clears for you). The way the models look, would say that winds will rapidly increase from ENE then back to NNE along most coasts, that could be fairly bad from Boston south in particular for storm surge around mid-day high tide Thursday. My subjective guess on snowfall -- 18 to 24 inches for most tapering to 12 to 18 w MA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 19 minutes ago, BRSno said: Such a pet peeve of mine, they're always so inconsistent. I'm here to actually report what Logan gets instead of that loon in Winthrop Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said: He uses the same ruler that James does. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheSnowman Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 23 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: just when I thought tuantflizz has boarded the bus.... That's 2 of the last 3 Winters of this is epic haha. I'm PRAYING for that RI Snowhole because I won't be there. I'm sick to my atomic that this Already has been THE Week to be home in my life and I have missed it. I can NOT miss my Favorite Kind of Snowstorm too in a 12"+ Bombogenesis 3" per hour. Better be an RI bust. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 4 minutes ago, JC-CT said: He uses the same ruler that James does. You can buy those in Lunenburg MA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowgeek Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 41 minutes ago, eyewall said: It is game over here for the 2nd year in a row. I don't want to hear any complaints about drifting or that you got 8 inches instead of 14. Sent from my VS987 using Tapatalk Sorry man. I hope you get clobbered soon. I din't realize that BTV averages 81" per year. Wow! Hopefully the CP, HV snow drought ends soon. FYI, my daughter is probably going to UVM next year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lava Rock Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 That RI snow hole worries me Look at all that wasted moisture in the GOM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 Figured I'd drop this tasty little nugget in here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mreaves Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 45 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said: Thanks Chris That's Legro, Mr. Legro, to you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LaGrangewx Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 This is looking very January 2011 esque Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 28 minutes ago, CT Rain said: chucking them left and right on my blog now... http://www.nbcconnecticut.com/weather/stories/Snowstorm-Turning-Into-a-Beast-413225603.html Well done. You think Malloy will issue a SoE tonight? based on max potential and timing? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Well done. You think Malloy will issue a SoE tonight? based on max potential and timing? I don't think so. Seems like it's too short of a duration and totals aren't enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 10 minutes ago, CT Rain said: I don't think so. Seems like it's too short of a duration and totals aren't enough. whats the threshold? I thought it was more about timing ie weekday vs weekend and night vs day type of thing as well as totals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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