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February 9th Coastal Storm Discussion


Baroclinic Zone

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Just now, Ginx snewx said:

Agreed completely there with a blend.

I'd just look at the QPF and make your own ratios.  I do feel the Kuchara goes too high in cold atmospheres, as temps don't always equal ratios.

Anyway, looks to be a crusher for you man.  Gonna have to shovel paths for the dogs.

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3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I agree. Although if euro is right is seems less of a banding issue. But I like my first sweet spot I mentioned earlier due to the initial fronto band staying steady state for a few hours. It would not shock me if someone had a 4-5"/hr pulled off.

Where was sweet spot? E Mass area?

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Just now, powderfreak said:

Agreed completely there with a blend.

I'd just look at the QPF and make your own ratios.  I do feel the Kuchara goes too high in cold atmospheres, as temps don't always equal ratios.

Anyway, looks to be a crusher for you man.  Gonna have to shovel paths for the dogs.

Lol I picked up toys and bones before I left this morning, won't get home until after dark. 

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1 minute ago, mattm4242 said:

Hey everyone, following all of this on this forum is awesome. I'm in Gloucester and am supposed to work tomorrow, BOX has us in the 8-12 range, but could we end up in the 12-18? If we're way up there I probably won't end up going in. Thanks in advance.

Stay home

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1 minute ago, powderfreak said:

Really from what I can see the only negative to real huge totals is duration.  Other than that, hard to be down on any part of this for SNE.

Ya. no negatives for me. havent had this in a very long time. as much as I love slow moving creepy crawlers which contain "lower" rates, these quick hitters can go ape sh*t and can awe you.

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12 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Put in your own ratios

 

Best answer to reel in crazy snow maps.
Prefer running my own grids and then change ratios to thermal profile. Like a fingerprint no two alike, easy to tweak to reasonable amounts.
Hit 84F this afternoon.
I WANT SNOW and if nobody's stated it already
I think it's goin snow!

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1 minute ago, ROOSTA said:

Best answer to reel in crazy snow maps.
Prefer running my own grids and then change ratios to thermal profile. Like a fingerprint no two alike, easy to tweak to reasonable amounts.
Hit 84F this afternoon.
I WANT SNOW and if nobody's stated it already
I think it's goin to snow!

Post one of your home brew maps here.   

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Just now, mattm4242 said:

Thank you. I work in a supermarket and you all should have seen the obliteration that we endured today.

I worked at Almacs Supermarket in 78, we didn't have warning so there was no mad rush.  In 79 there was a blizzard warning that basically failed, we were wiped out of everything lol. I don't get it but if you need beer definitely get it tonight.

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13 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I agree. Although if euro is right is seems less of a banding issue. But I like my first sweet spot I mentioned earlier due to the initial fronto band staying steady state for a few hours. It would not shock me if someone had a 4-5"/hr pulled off.

Yeah - looking at the GFS... jesus that convergent signature is nuts. 

GFSNE_700_spd_021.png

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19 minutes ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said:

My snowfall map for New England.  Judge away!

Southern New England Map 1.gif

Not judging because hey to each their own.  Area likely needs more caution is central and northern new england.  I have to agree with Oceanstwx that the northern fridge is likely going to be a sharp cutoff.  North of say Concord I would be concerned about smoking cirrus. 

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