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February 9th Coastal Storm Discussion


Baroclinic Zone

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Just now, Morch Madness said:

BOX going balls to the wall

 

It's pretty much time to do that....there is nearly unanimous agreement amongst guidance now. Some subtle differences but even the less enthusiastic scenarios are giving most of the region 8"+

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2 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Those fronto depictions on Dr Harts site are something I don't think I recall with gray scale 24 average frontogenesis. 

They added in the gray for 24 pretty recently...the max used to go to 16 and anything over was just shaded black.

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2 minutes ago, CT Rain said:

Not sure where the screw zone will be... but there will be one since a lot of this is forced through strong frontogenetic banding.

I remember watching your weenie arse back in Feb 06 and cursing the heck out of you as I subsidized for hours. Lol  still had foot though

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1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said:

I remember you had this same type of post right before October 2011

I mean it's hard to argue with him, I don't see anything screaming bust down in SNE. I have concerns about the northern edge, but that's a different story.

F-gen max agreement from model to model is really high, especially for something so mesoscale. Right over your fanny up to just NW of BOS.

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1 minute ago, OceanStWx said:

I mean it's hard to argue with him, I don't see anything screaming bust down in SNE. I have concerns about the northern edge, but that's a different story.

F-gen max agreement from model to model is really high, especially for something so mesoscale. Right over your fanny up to just NW of BOS.

Yup - good agreement. 

I'm thinking my area looks good. A bit concerned there's another bump NW and it winds up in NW CT and outside of 495 or something. But that's just me being a :weenie:

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16 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

That is not true there freaky man. Check out the differences in your 10-1 maps you posted the other day and the Kucheras which eliminated sleet. 8 inches was 2.3

I'm just joking...but they get used a lot more than they should, IMO.  I think the 10-1 maps set expectations in the right direction and 99% of the time those maps will have higher ratios IMO.

I'm just not a fan of snow maps that bank on ratios is all.  I feel like it goes wild in social media and everyone is expecting 20".

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6 minutes ago, CT Rain said:

Not sure where the screw zone will be... but there will be one since a lot of this is forced through strong frontogenetic banding.

I agree. Although if euro is right is seems less of a banding issue. But I like my first sweet spot I mentioned earlier due to the initial fronto band staying steady state for a few hours. It would not shock me if someone had a 4-5"/hr pulled off.

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2 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

I'm just joking...but they get used a lot more than they should, IMO.  I think the 10-1 maps set expectations in the right direction and 99% of the time those maps will have higher ratios IMO.

I'm just not a fan of snow maps that bank on ratios is all.  I feel like it goes wild in social media and everyone is expecting 20".

Blend away and you get a good handle

http://www.meteor.iastate.edu/~ckarsten/bufkit/data/retro_map.html

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Just now, CoastalWx said:

I agree. Although if euro is right is seems less of a banding issue. But I like my first sweet spot I mentioned earlier due to the initial fronto band staying steady state for a few hours. It would not shock me if someone had a 4-5"/hr pulled off.

Wow we are starting to reach for the 05 Blizzard mark with 4-5"/hour rates

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Just now, CoastalWx said:

I agree. Although if euro is right is seems less of a banding issue. But I like my first sweet spot I mentioned earlier due to the initial fronto band staying steady state for a few hours. It would not shock me if someone had a 4-5"/hr pulled off.

Kev was not far off with his Jan 11 analog it seems

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