OceanStWx Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 1 minute ago, mahk_webstah said: I think the mets don't believe those higher qpf, higher ratio maps, i.e. kuchera and the nam/euro weenie maps. But damn the Euro has me around .6 or .7 and that should translate to 7-9 or 10 inches but we are slated for 3-5 Well one problem with Kuchera, it doesn't care about lift. It just cares about what the max temp in the profile is. Around 1P1 say the max temp is only -10C, Kuchera says 20:1 ratios then. But if all the lift is above the DGZ, you'll get crappy crystals and probably be closer to climo average. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 1 minute ago, OceanStWx said: Well one problem with Kuchera, it doesn't care about lift. It just cares about what the max temp in the profile is. Around 1P1 say the max temp is only -10C, Kuchera says 20:1 ratios then. But if all the lift is above the DGZ, you'll get crappy crystals and probably be closer to climo average. Cobb for the NAM is about 8 for CON Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 MPm selling his areas short. Not sure I would. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 3 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: While the rgem crush band remains same spot relatively speaking, it enhanced precip further nw. I like the look even if i cant experience the sick band like ECT. I wouldn't put any stock in any one look, these things evolve as the storm moves Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 Just now, CoastalWx said: MPm selling his areas short. Not sure I would. Color me surprised Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 5 minutes ago, dryslot said: drops mic I think from here on out, we just want to see that wave be stronger than modeling to get the amped end result. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: MPm selling his areas short. Not sure I would. 50/50 chance I'm heading up to Maine tonight. What's the thinking for the mid-coast? I'm guessing 6-10". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 10 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: In the FWIW category, it looks like the 12z suite was a little too strong with the shortwave over the MO Valley. Might mean the 12z runs were slightly too amped. I know, poop emoji in the punchbowl. What gives you that indication? If anything the 18z GFS initialization looks a bit stronger at 850hPa than the 6hr fcast from the 12z GFS. Edit: I see it's slightly less amplified after initialization... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 5 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: I think from here on out, we just want to see that wave be stronger than modeling to get the amped end result. Looks like we are going in that direction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 meh, doesn't seem to matter much. We are so close in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 5 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said: Oh.. Legro. Need to call him Legro I just caught up to this, I'm actually totally fine with this. Ha Back to the storm, I will say the Cobb ratios spitting out 20:1, it looks like it will happen for someone who gets under the best banding. It may be narrow, but it should happen. The cross hair is nearly perfect for parts of SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 Thunderstorms erupting over the state of Kentucky in the warm sector of the developing storm. Large shield of snow present currently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 GFS looks better than 12z to me. Wetter and a bit more amped. 1"+ QPF for pretty much all of SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 18z GFS more impressive than 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 6 minutes ago, phil882 said: What gives you that indication? If anything the 18z GFS initialization looks a bit stronger at 850hPa than the 6hr fcast from the 12z GFS. Edit: I see it's slightly less amplified after initialization... Sorry, I meant models vs the actual shortwave heights sampled by the raobs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 19 minutes ago, phil882 said: Keep an eye on the HRRR frontogenesis plots. The axis of the 700-hPa frontogenesis is likely to be along and poleward where you will see the best snowfall ratios. Right now the latest run has the axis over NW NJ - Far South NY but north of NYC - NW Connecticut - Central MA. Folks equatorward will still get decent snowfall accumulation, but may not have the best ice crystal composition (more rimmed/needle like snow flakes) since the strongest -omega will be occurring at temperatures above the dendritic growth zone. Loop of the HRRR Frontogenesis: http://www.atmos.albany.edu/student/ppapin/lb13_img/hrrr/hrrr_ncep_fgen_all_alb.php So if I understand this right, this would suggest a heavy frontogenic band fairly far inland. That is my hope with this storm as this plot you have shared suggest heavy snows up north of the Mass/ NH border Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rnaude241 Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 GFS looking slower to me as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 Gfs really nails CT to NE MA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 2 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: I just caught up to this, I'm actually totally fine with this. Ha Back to the storm, I will say the Cobb ratios spitting out 20:1, it looks like it will happen for someone who gets under the best banding. It may be narrow, but it should happen. The cross hair is nearly perfect for parts of SNE. It prob like a Feb '01 deal...someone under the band will get about 6" more than forecast....even if QPF is only marginally more under that band. They'll stack it up with amazing snow growth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 Wow those are amazing adjustments on the 18z GFS if everyone is right, slower, more amped and wetter QPF wise. the 12z GFS was around 980mb at the benchmark. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 GFS slightly better.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 27 minutes ago, moneypitmike said: Not gonna happen. I'm ready for my 5-8". Could be that rare occasion when I get a little more than you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 Is Kuchera the new buzz word for the season?? Like Derecho from a couple years ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 Wow gfs is awesome for here!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 Timing differences with euro and gfs for tomorrow. Euro is slower it seems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 Just now, Chrisrotary12 said: Is Kuchera the new buzz word for the season?? Like Derecho from a couple years ago. It prints out better looking (ie higher snow amounts) snow maps than the 10:1 ratio ones. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: Timing differences with euro and gfs for tomorrow. Euro is slower it seems. Euro is definitely really carving that trough the most and deepens that shortwave...that's slowing it down a few hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 16 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: I wouldn't put any stock in any one look, these things evolve as the storm moves Agree. death bands cannot be pinned down but euro rgem combo right now is trying to. Lets see how stuff evolves downstream tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 No JP fetish here I'll do snow angels in 8" and hope for some frosting on the cake Saturday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RobertSul Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 Is it possible that Boston gets upgraded to a blizzard warning seeing as gusts will be 45-50 mph? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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