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February 9th Coastal Storm Discussion


Baroclinic Zone

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2 minutes ago, Modfan said:

Do you think models could be underdoing totals where the heaviest banding sets up, or is it a case of its moving to quickly to drop more?

I think models actually have a pretty good handle on the max amounts. They are just differing in location at this time.

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4 minutes ago, Modfan said:

Do you think models could be underdoing totals where the heaviest banding sets up, or is it a case of its moving to quickly to drop more?

Under a really intense band that manages to stay relatively stationary in this fast moving storm, someone is going to get more than most models give them. But that isn't too different than most storms.

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Keep an eye on the HRRR frontogenesis plots. The axis of the 700-hPa frontogenesis is likely to be along and poleward where you will see the best snowfall ratios. Right now the latest run has the axis over NW NJ - Far South NY but north of NYC - NW Connecticut - Central MA. Folks equatorward will still get decent snowfall accumulation, but may not have the best ice crystal composition (more rimmed/needle like snow flakes) since the strongest -omega will be occurring at temperatures above the dendritic growth zone. 

Loop of the HRRR Frontogenesis: http://www.atmos.albany.edu/student/ppapin/lb13_img/hrrr/hrrr_ncep_fgen_all_alb.php

hrrr_ncep_fgen700_KALB_19.png

 

 

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10 minutes ago, Whineminster said:

If CodFish or MPM jacks I'm OK with it, or basically if anyone west or north of me jacks -- that's OK too.  But no one to the south and no one to east, unless the jack is like Danbury, CT, that would be ok, but not KTOL. 

Not gonna happen.  I'm ready for my 5-8".

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5 minutes ago, phil882 said:

Keep an eye on the HRRR frontogenesis plots. The axis of the 700-hPa frontogenesis is likely to be along and poleward where you will see the best snowfall ratios. Right now the latest run has the axis over NW NJ - Far South NY but north of NYC - NW Connecticut - Central MA. Folks equatorward will still get decent snowfall accumulation, but may not have the best ice crystal composition (more rimmed/needle like snow flakes) since the strongest -omega will be occurring at temperatures above the dendritic growth zone. 

Loop of the HRRR Frontogenesis: http://www.atmos.albany.edu/student/ppapin/lb13_img/hrrr/hrrr_ncep_fgen_all_alb.php

hrrr_ncep_fgen700_KALB_19.png

 

 

Hey Phil, great stuff. HRRR has had some issues around here recently but will watch closely. The GFS NAM fronto stuff is off the hook

gfs.ne.frontb10.png

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25 minutes ago, wxeyeNH said:

I live in SE Grafton County in NH.  Nothing issued at all.  Not even a WWA.  Yet 3 miles SE of me a Winter Storm Warning.  Everything I see on models show 5- 10" for my area.  It's hard with the big counties up here.  Most of Grafton counties population is in the SE corner.  

I think the mets don't believe those higher qpf, higher ratio maps, i.e. kuchera and the nam/euro weenie maps.  But damn the Euro has me around .6 or .7 and that should translate to 7-9 or 10 inches but we are slated for 3-5

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