WinterWolf Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 There are some decent indicators that this could be a decent/good event. But there are also things that could sabotage this event as well. While I agree that the Euro isn't what it used to be at/or inside 72 hours, the fact it moved away from a substantial event should give a lil pause..this isn't a slam dunk. EPS being juicier and NW somewhat is a good sign..but to early to be overly confident in Warning criteria snows at the moment...at least imo. Certainly not Debbying it either...but we have a lil ways to go before we can feel this is a truly solid event. Sure hope it is though..we could all use a good event right about now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: NGW? Yeah I think this run is gonna be zonked pretty good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 EPS has pretty good probs of 3" or more for most of the eastern 2/3 of SNE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: Yeah I think this run is gonna be zonked pretty good. i might have mixing issues with the NAM is so amped Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 NAh it's cold save for the Cape part of the time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 not bad on the NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 Lol..,so much for the flatter NAM idea... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 2 minutes ago, weathafella said: Lol..,so much for the flatter NAM idea... Yeah that is pretty much a high impact warning snowfall...a 6 hour blitz. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 Clown snow maps for the nam are good for a laugh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 Shortwave in question is still some 1000 miles off the coast of northern CA. It will be hauling though. Hits the West Coast around midday tomorrow and is bringing precip to SNE by Wednesday evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizz Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 1 minute ago, OceanStWx said: Shortwave in question is still some 1000 miles off the coast of northern CA. It will be hauling though. Hits the West Coast around midday tomorrow and is bringing precip to SNE by Wednesday evening. PNA ridge out west was a lot more juiced this run too...definitely helps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 Ahh snow maps. So FTL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 Just now, ORH_wxman said: PNA ridge out west was a lot more juiced this run too...definitely helps. Big key on the GEFS. Dig that wave deeper and it's a more substantial impact for SNE. Or just New England in general. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 9 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: EPS has pretty good probs of 3" or more for most of the eastern 2/3 of SNE CT Blizz was a better name, better JuJu Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 7 minutes ago, weathafella said: Lol..,so much for the flatter NAM idea... Yeah... I was wrong on that... the NAM is 12" for just about all SNE off the cape Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 Those maps probably pick up some ice from the tomorrow in CNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 2-3" per hour with TSSN in that fronto band Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 10 minutes ago, Bostonseminole said: i might have mixing issues with the NAM is so amped I am as soured as anyone on this winter, but don't sleep on this one... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 It's probably too wild as usual, but the key is watching the upper air features. Ridging our west, s/w behavior etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I am as soured as anyone on this winter, but don't sleep on this one... these are my favorites, no tracking for weeks..just pops up.. now we are only 48hrs away.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said: 2-3" per hour with TSSN in that fronto band Briefly it looks like soundings try and approach a MAUL, but it's not a very persistent feature. So I'm not gung ho on thunder part. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 12 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: Briefly it looks like soundings try and approach a MAUL, but it's not a very persistent feature. So I'm not gung ho on thunder part. Well ... I think if you 'MAULed' things over for a bit you might see things differently - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 Funny though, that has the synoptic appeal of that... That's some sick frontogenic/MESO look there having that negative tild 100 kt 500 mb jet core piercing over and E of Cape Cod. but the devil's in the details... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 16 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I am as soured as anyone on this winter, but don't sleep on this one... This run illustrates that this could be a rather large event. On the flip side.... the euro shows how this could be a nuisance at best. fickle setup Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anthonyweather Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 13 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: Funny though, that has the synoptic appeal of that... That's some sick frontogenic/MESO look there having that negative tild 100 kt 500 mb jet core piercing over and E of Cape Cod. but the devil's in the details... The f-gen is healthy for sure (850 and 700 mb both). Nice banding signal across the interior on the GFS. All the lift and RH is in that stripe, but the GFS QPF max is like MTP around 09z Thursday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 Just tremendous room for some major amplification with this. There are so many impressive features with this system as a whole. The 18z NAM showing a 190+ 250mb ULJ streak rounding up and over the ridge across the west coast...that's quite impressive. Not to mention a 120+ knot 500mb jet streak rounding the base of the trough. The degree of cold also injecting into the trough is incredible...700mb temps nearing -30C. Quite the tight thermal gradient too over the region which will only further strengthen lift. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 Paul, the SSTs and arctic air instability parameters are in place along the forecasted track of this surface low pressure center. The static instability is present enough for a major ramp up in intensification. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 Upton already has snowfall in the grids and the min likely maps have been updated for 0 min, 4-5 likely, 9-10 max for the CWA...BOX still holding off until this first event passes...Kinda surprised to see OKX issue those numbers this far out to be honest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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