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February 9th Coastal Storm Discussion


Baroclinic Zone

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10 minutes ago, BRSno said:

StormTotalSnowWeb.png

That's an oddly specific map,  with no blending and incredible detail.    It looks like they changed from drawing them and now it's computer output 100%? As much as I love the narrow band giving me a boost in Newport,  no snowfall map for this sort of event has ever looked like that, where Narragansett bay and islands do better than say Kingston. 

Everyone is a winner with this thing.  It will be nice and filled in,  but if there was a drier subsidence zone, I will not be shocked,  or aggrieved for that matter to be inside it.  I'm hoping for some nice winds too. 

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1 minute ago, Hambone said:

There's a probable timeline on WU that looks like a 4AM start that gets cranking by 7-8AM.  https://www.wunderground.com/q/zmw:01756.1.99999?sp=KMAMENDO2&utm_source=HomeCard&utm_content=Button&cm_ven=HomeCardButton

Thank you.  He is supposed to be leaving here around 1:00pm so may catch the tail end of it.  The roads will probably still suck though.

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Just now, OceanStWx said:

I mean damn, PWM was shut down this morning for ice on the runway. What kind of confusion would it have brought if we upgrade to warnings in the middle of that? Even if the text says for Thursday, it's just confusing to most people (and maybe makes Ryan's job harder?).

Make the NAM/HRRR verify and we'll let all of this late to the party stuff slide.

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1 minute ago, NeonPeon said:

That's an oddly specific map,  with no blending and incredible detail.    It looks like they changed from drawing them and now it's computer output 100%? As much as I love the narrow band giving me a boost in Newport,  no snowfall map for this sort of event has ever looked like that, where Narragansett bay and islands do better than say Kingston. 

Everyone is a winner with this thing.  It will be nice and filled in,  but if there was a drier subsidence zone, I will not be shocked,  or aggrieved for that matter to be inside it.  I'm hoping for some nice winds too. 

I wouldn't get too wrapped up in those ranges. They have widespread near 12" amounts and so they are bouncing between ranges. The 12-18" area does not mean they are forecasting 18" in those zones. It just means it's 12" and not 11.4"

We still hand draw it, but the computer is locked into the ranges. 

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Just now, OceanStWx said:

I mean damn, PWM was shut down this morning for ice on the runway. What kind of confusion would it have brought if we upgrade to warnings in the middle of that? Even if the text says for Thursday, it's just confusing to most people (and maybe makes Ryan's job harder?).

Yet another flash freeze event , Will nailed it, somebody forgot to tell the sanders, what a disaster commute in Mass

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Just now, OceanStWx said:

I'm accepting donations, the forecast is all mine tonight.

Any pull over here in BTV land?  I don't need much, 4"-6" would be nice.  If you could arrange that, I'll throw you a couple of 4 packs of Heddy or maybe take a ride up to Hill Farmstead and grab some Edward for you.  

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3 minutes ago, mreaves said:

Any pull over here in BTV land?  I don't need much, 4"-6" would be nice.  If you could arrange that, I'll throw you a couple of 4 packs of Heddy or maybe take a ride up to Hill Farmstead and grab some Edward for you.  

Sold. And some day we may actually have Vermont if they cut the number of offices around the country like they are talking about. 

Looking like you need to get one county south to get into that 4-6"

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14 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

What exactly would you have us do? The forecast package goes out between 3 and 4, and that's when warnings/advisories are issued. You had a watch, the forecast snow amounts are still the same. We have a difference of one inch from NH to MA. 

Just because BOX wanted to go advisory and warning at the same time, doesn't mean we should all follow suit. We brought one set of warnings/advisories down before issuing the next.

You tell em honey!  We love you.  Pick up some bread and milk on your way home.

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Just now, dendrite said:

Good luck with that with a blizzard warning ripping apart your ratios.

Come on I have heard that nonsense forever now, if the storm is supposed to drop 2' then it will drop 2', ratios and winds won't stop that from happening.  Some of the worst winds in a storm have dropped almost 3' of snow, the Blizzard of 2015 and 2005 have brought 33" and 35" respectively with hurricane force winds

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1 minute ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said:

Come on I have heard that nonsense forever now, if the storm is supposed to drop 2' then it will drop 2', ratios and winds won't stop that from happening.  Some of the worst winds in a storm have dropped almost 3' of snow, the Blizzard of 2015 and 2005 have brought 33" and 35" respectively with hurricane force winds

You've become a real douche.

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1 minute ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said:

Come on I have heard that nonsense forever now, if the storm is supposed to drop 2' then it will drop 2', ratios and winds won't stop that from happening.  Some of the worst winds in a storm have dropped almost 3' of snow, the Blizzard of 2015 and 2005 have brought 33" and 35" respectively with hurricane force winds

Wasn't that like 2.5+ qpf?  You think you get close to that?  

3 hot dogs for lunch today?

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