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February 9th Coastal Storm Discussion


Baroclinic Zone

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18 minutes ago, Hazey said:

Winter storm warning is up in my hood. 20-30cms with winds gusting to 100km/h. Time to stock up at the booze store.

Don't expect it necessarily, but over 30cm/12" would not surprise me at all.  I like yarmouth, digby, annapolis a bit better for the bigger totals, but we'll see.  

 

 

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4 minutes ago, OSUmetstud said:

Don't expect it necessarily, but over 30cm/12" would not surprise me at all.  I like yarmouth, digby, annapolis a bit better for the bigger totals, but we'll see.  

 

 

Yeah Halifax is just too close to the low track. Those areas are favored as they will be in the sweet spot. I like the 20-25 range for the city. I think we'll flirt with IP mix at times during the evening which will keep totals down. Should be a reasonable copy of the Jan 9th storm.

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2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Yeah NAM looks much more uniform..probably owing to better mid levels and overall more of a less banded structure.

Check out 500mb at 24h on the 18z run vs 30h on the 12z run south of us....this is where the Euro has been showing a better solution too (the Euro is even better than the 18z NAM)...it is starting to curl those height lines back toward SNE now...much better for mid-level development.

 

 

 

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1 minute ago, Chrisrotary12 said:

Why is it that the Grey NWS office is always last to the party?  I live 500 yards north of the MA border and miss belonging to the BOX CWA.

What exactly would you have us do? The forecast package goes out between 3 and 4, and that's when warnings/advisories are issued. You had a watch, the forecast snow amounts are still the same. We have a difference of one inch from NH to MA. 

Just because BOX wanted to go advisory and warning at the same time, doesn't mean we should all follow suit. We brought one set of warnings/advisories down before issuing the next.

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1 minute ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said:

Wow at the EURO/GFS/NAM/UKMET combination, monster 980mb or lower pressure monster storm system, 12-24" seems reasonable now for the region.

That seems a little ridiculous. I would say around 12 but i highly doubt anything near or over 20 with the speed of this system especially for your area.

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1 hour ago, mreaves said:

Not to be a pest but since I am mostly out of this party I haven't been paying close attention.  I have a colleague who has to dive down to New Haven, CT tomorrow for a funeral. What time is this projected to start and end.  Thanks in advance.

There's a probable timeline on WU that looks like a 4AM start that gets cranking by 7-8AM.  https://www.wunderground.com/q/zmw:01756.1.99999?sp=KMAMENDO2&utm_source=HomeCard&utm_content=Button&cm_ven=HomeCardButton

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Just now, ORH_wxman said:

Chris and Ekster just want to make weenies angry.

I mean damn, PWM was shut down this morning for ice on the runway. What kind of confusion would it have brought if we upgrade to warnings in the middle of that? Even if the text says for Thursday, it's just confusing to most people (and maybe makes Ryan's job harder?).

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