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February 9th Coastal Storm Discussion


Baroclinic Zone

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4 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said:

This is from OKX AFD...


Operational models are in decent agreement with the track and
timing, with the 00Z GFS faster than the others. QPF is also in
good agreement, with generally between 0.60"-1.00" of liquid
equivalent. This translates to 6"-10" of snow across the area.

I wonder why they are going with a straight 10:1 across the area. Seems a bit lazy forecasting? I don't expect crazy 20 or 22:1 but 12-14:1 sounds reasonable especially inland, id like to take a look at bufkit later this afternoon.

I'd say you have a decent period tomorrow of better than 10:1 based on this.

hvnbufkit.png

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4 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said:

This is from OKX AFD...


Operational models are in decent agreement with the track and
timing, with the 00Z GFS faster than the others. QPF is also in
good agreement, with generally between 0.60"-1.00" of liquid
equivalent. This translates to 6"-10" of snow across the area.

I wonder why they are going with a straight 10:1 across the area. Seems a bit lazy forecasting? I don't expect crazy 20 or 22:1 but 12-14:1 sounds reasonable especially inland, id like to take a look at bufkit later this afternoon.

That was also from the 0z model runs.  That may change when they update later this afternoon...after looking at the 12z model runs???  Or maybe I'm wrong?

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5 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said:

This is from OKX AFD...


Operational models are in decent agreement with the track and
timing, with the 00Z GFS faster than the others. QPF is also in
good agreement, with generally between 0.60"-1.00" of liquid
equivalent. This translates to 6"-10" of snow across the area.

I wonder why they are going with a straight 10:1 across the area. Seems a bit lazy forecasting? I don't expect crazy 20 or 22:1 but 12-14:1 sounds reasonable especially inland, id like to take a look at bufkit later this afternoon.

after jan 15 bust, they scared.

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What are the chances of Blizzard Warning verses Winter Storm Warnings for Eastern areas?  With heavy snow coming in mid morning the impact on the population are greater than say a late evening start time.  I would guess you would want to hit the potential harder?   Lots to consider as there is a big difference in the public's eye between the 2 types of  warnings.

 

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2 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said:

is that good?  is that the far interior band that was being discussed yesterday?

The NAM is our best bet and that's never a good thing. lol

Maybe we can get a stray mid to upper level band up here. Sometimes we can pull that off when the best banding sig is located over N MA which gives S NH the meso screwgie. I don't have high hopes for this though. I'm leaning 3-6" for us.

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4 minutes ago, wxeyeNH said:

What are the chances of Blizzard Warning verses Winter Storm Warnings for Eastern areas?  With heavy snow coming in mid morning the impact on the population are greater than say a late evening start time.  I would guess you would want to hit the potential harder?   Lots to consider as there is a big difference in the public's eye between the 2 types of  warnings.

 

CarverWX just answered your question.

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37 minutes ago, codfishsnowman said:

agreed 100 pct, worst kool aid ever and I remember saying to myself it had a 1/22/05 kinda feel to it that morning but even the normally conservative local stations were going 15-22 and higher!

the other thing I thought about was what were the odds of the bowels of death valley having a third (jan 11, feb 13) gargantuan event in five years? unheard of relative to climo

Worst bust ever

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Blizzard Warning


URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Taunton MA
217 PM EST Wed Feb 8 2017

MAZ019-022-023-RIZ008-090330-
/O.UPG.KBOX.WS.W.0002.170209T1100Z-170210T0500Z/
/O.NEW.KBOX.BZ.W.0002.170209T1400Z-170210T0100Z/
Eastern Plymouth MA-Barnstable MA-Dukes MA-Block Island RI-
Including the cities of Plymouth, Chatham, Falmouth,
Provincetown, Vineyard Haven, and BLOCK ISLAND
217 PM EST Wed Feb 8 2017

...BLIZZARD WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM TO 8 PM EST THURSDAY...

The National Weather Service in Taunton has issued a Blizzard
Warning...which is in effect from 9 AM to 8 PM EST Thursday. The
Winter Storm Warning is no longer in effect.

* LOCATIONS...Eastern Plymouth County...Cape Cod...Marthas
  Vineyard and Block Island.

* HAZARD TYPES...Heavy snow and Blizzard conditions.

* Accumulations...Snow accumulation of 8 to 14 inches.

* TIMING...Precipitation will overspread the region between 6 and
  9 am Thursday morning and may begin as a brief period of rain.
  Any rain will change to snow by late morning. The snow will then
  fall heavy at times Thursday afternoon before tapering off to
  snow showers Thursday evening.

* IMPACTS...Heavy snow and strong winds will result in blizzard
  conditions Thursday afternoon and early evening. Snowfall rates
  of 2 to 3 inches per hour will be possible at times Thursday
  afternoon. Strong winds will create blowing and drifting snow
  and near-white out conditions at times. Travel is not
  recommended Thursday afternoon and evening.

* Winds...North 25 to 35 mph with gusts up to 50 mph.

* Visibilities...one quarter mile or less at times.

* Temperatures...In the mid 20s.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Blizzard Warning is issued when sustained winds or frequent
gusts over 35 mph are expected with considerable falling and/or
blowing snow. Visibilities will become poor with whiteout
conditions at times. Those venturing outdoors may become lost or
disoriented. So persons in the warning area are strongly advised
to stay indoors.

&&

$$
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