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February 9th Coastal Storm Discussion

Baroclinic Zone

By Baroclinic Zone,
in New England

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moneypitmike

moneypitmike

Posted
Posted
16 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said:

Euro is a bomb at 30, deeper a bit and a bit NW more QPF through SNE and CT than 00Z

CT is now grouped in with the Mid-Atlantic.  Must be those BDL dews.

15 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

It has 6 hour totals of like 0.80" across about 2/3rds of SNE.

Any guesses to where the other third is??

3 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Kuchie Kuchie KU

http://9A5AA127-682E-4DEB-83F6-6972096B36CE_zps

 

I might need to head up to Maine tonight.   It's a much better show there than at home.

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danstorm

danstorm

Posted
Posted
Just now, ORH_wxman said:

 

Yeah I was thinking of that analog yesterday....a fast moving system with insane snowfall rates. I agree this one looks even faster than that storm...that storm was about 12 hours....this one might be more like 10.

Yes, and this one has more fresh cold to work with and a more favorable track for all.  We mixed/dry slotted for a time on the Ct coast during that.  Plus, the airmass was marginal for that system, limiting accums for NYC S and E - doesn't look like that will be the case tomorrow.  Game the F on!!!

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Ginx snewx

Ginx snewx

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, dendrite said:

And it works OK in lighter amounts, but naso much with 15" with the compaction factor. A 6hr core with 0.75" liquid will take some compaction with a theoretical 20:1. 

GFS IJD
170209/1200Z  24  03010KT  26.5F  SNOW   10:1| 0.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.031   10:1|  0.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.03  
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
170209/1500Z  27  03013KT  22.7F  SNOW   21:1| 6.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.307   20:1|  6.8|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.34  
170209/1800Z  30  36013KT  18.2F  SNOW   19:1| 7.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.389   19:1| 14.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.73  
170209/2100Z  33  34013KT  18.0F  SNOW   12:1| 1.7|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.134   18:1| 15.7|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.86 
170210/0000Z  36  32013KT  14.3F  SNOW    6:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.020   18:1| 15.8|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.88  
ate/hour    FHr  Wind    SfcT   Ptype   SR |Snow||Sleet|| FZRA|| QPF    CumSR|TotSN||TotPL||TotZR|| TQPF

plotter.png

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FRWEATHA

FRWEATHA

Posted
Posted

Enjoy everyone. Too bad I'm going to miss this but experiencing some wild weather here in Iceland. Today was the second day of a 2 day gale. Winds today had to be hurricane force as you had to crouch to stand, although I was at slightly elevated location. The strongest I've ever experienced. Since arriving Monday I've seen driving rain, sleet and snow. If wild weather is your thing this is the place.

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
Posted
Just now, danstorm said:

Yes, and this one has more fresh cold to work with and a more favorable track for all.  We mixed/dry slotted for a time on the Ct coast during that.  Plus, the airmass was marginal for that system, limiting accums for NYC S and E - doesn't look like that will be the case tomorrow.  Game the F on!!!

As much as I love a long duration storm...something about the very intense fast movers gets the adrenaline flowing. It's like 2/5/01 but with an almost optimal thermal profile.

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radarman

radarman

Posted
Posted

 

4 minutes ago, danstorm said:

We've been banging the 2/5/01 analog a lot in the NYC forum.  This looks like that to me (a bit faster), except a bit colder and faster.  

Please let us in the Pioneer Valley keep our gold standard... NE CT and ORH hills have plenty of gold standards.  ;)

Not banking on Kuchera in these parts, but also won't complain if 10:1 verifies.

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dryslot

dryslot

Posted
Posted
5 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said:

No it's not...Wxbell has a 15:1 panel and when you enable that it is showing 16-18" amounts across SNE, when you enable kuchera its 23-25". And the total QPF across SNE is 1.1-1.2" so unless my math is horrible wrong thats 20:1 ratios

Your right, He is not, Some nutjob on twitter must of said it

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The 4 Seasons

The 4 Seasons

Posted
Posted
Just now, ORH_wxman said:

As much as I love a long duration storm...something about the very intense fast movers gets the adrenaline flowing. It's like 2/5/01 but with an almost optimal thermal profile.

I mentioned this yesterday, it def feels like that all over again. I also remember the 5-8, 7-10 forecasts for CT and the horrible busts of 1-2 feet statewide. That was the first thundersnow i can remember with cloud to ground lightning in mby, unreal stuff. 

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

Posted
Posted

in any event, my earlier consternation re the 00z bumping E and the NAM cutting QPF has been substantially offset to put it nicely - 

That Euro run is speechless really - 

Firstly, once the awe of the thing settles down, now you got to get analytical ...FAST!  Because the impact differential between winter storm warning/advisories and blizzard are a problem here.  To mention, short duration notification going out to public channels...  Lot's of moving parts - work the problem.

If it's decided not to take this run ... okay. 

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SR Airglow

SR Airglow

Posted
Posted

Woah.

I find it hard to believe 22:1 ratios(which is about what the Kuchera is spitting out) are going to be correct, but I do think you have to go higher than 10:1 given the nature of the system. How high to go is the biggest question left in this forecast I think and what has the highest bust potential one way or another.

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dryslot

dryslot

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, SR Airglow said:

Woah.

I find it hard to believe 22:1 ratios(which is about what the Kuchera is spitting out) are going to be correct, but I do think you have to go higher than 10:1 given the nature of the system. How high to go is the biggest question left in this forecast I think and what has the highest bust potential one way or another.

I typically would lean towards 12-15:1

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mahk_webstah

mahk_webstah

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, SR Airglow said:

Woah.

I find it hard to believe 22:1 ratios(which is about what the Kuchera is spitting out) are going to be correct, but I do think you have to go higher than 10:1 given the nature of the system. How high to go is the biggest question left in this forecast I think and what has the highest bust potential one way or another.

it usually works out that whoever is in the death band/ccb gets a period of insane ratios, after a more normal ratios in the first part of the storm

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Ginx snewx

Ginx snewx

Posted
Posted
Just now, SR Airglow said:

Woah.

I find it hard to believe 22:1 ratios(which is about what the Kuchera is spitting out) are going to be correct, but I do think you have to go higher than 10:1 given the nature of the system. How high to go is the biggest question left in this forecast I think and what has the highest bust potential one way or another.

I wonder sometimes in these types of storms, like Jan 11, all of a sudden in 45 -60 minutes there was 8 inches on my deck/driveway/car after I had cleaned it. Bufkit is crazy too.

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HIPPYVALLEY

HIPPYVALLEY

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, radarman said:

 

Please let us in the Pioneer Valley keep our gold standard... NE CT and ORH hills have plenty of gold standards.  ;)

Not banking on Kuchera in these parts, but also won't complain if 10:1 verifies.

 If the best deformation banding sets up over Orh Co we are not going to have optimal snow growth out here.

 I would say that 10:1  is what we should expect.   You will do a little better down there.   I would say 6-8" is a  conservative safe bet for you.

 I am a little bit gun shy up here and will go with a conservative 4-8".   Small shifts at game time will make a big difference out here.  If I were in the Berkshires or E. NY  I would be in meh' mode.

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dryslot

dryslot

Posted
Posted
6 minutes ago, codfishsnowman said:

that isn't my angst but 5-6 while its 12-18 less than an hour away will put me over the edge....9 would be great

the rgm is still lousy back this way and that is the one you guys say is so great close in

I can attest, That's not always the case, The RGEM fell on its face more then once this year already but if you take a blend including that, Totals are still quite high over a lot of the area.

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HIPPYVALLEY

HIPPYVALLEY

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, codfishsnowman said:

that isn't my angst but 5-6 while its 12-18 less than an hour away will put me over the edge....9 would be great

the rgm is still lousy back this way and that is the one you guys say is so great close in

I think you will do ok but you know damn well the scenario you just described is certainly on the table.  

6" for you and 14" in Shrewsbury is  well within the realm of possibilities.

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