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February 9th Coastal Storm Discussion


Baroclinic Zone

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Hartford CT-Tolland CT-Windham CT-Western Hampden MA-
Eastern Hampden MA-Southern Worcester MA-
Including the cities of Hartford, Windsor Locks, Union, Vernon,
Putnam, Willimantic, Blandford, Springfield, Milford,
and Worcester
451 AM EST Wed Feb 8 2017

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS
MORNING...

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM TO 9 PM EST
THURSDAY...

The National Weather Service in Taunton has issued a Winter Storm
Warning for heavy snow...which is in effect from 4 AM to 9 PM EST
Thursday. The Winter Storm Watch is no longer in effect.

* Locations...Interior Massachusetts which includes the cities
  and towns of Blandford, Springfield, Milford, and Worcester.

* Hazard Types...Freezing rain/drizzle this morning then heavy
  snow Thursday.

* Accumulations...a trace of ice this morning then Snow
  accumulation of 8 to 12 inches Thursday.

* Timing...Pockets of freezing rain this morning. Heavy snow will
  begin early Thursday morning and last through much of the day
  before ending Thursday evening. Snow could fall heavy at times
  and impact both the morning and evening commutes.
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44 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Hartford CT-Tolland CT-Windham CT-Western Hampden MA-
Eastern Hampden MA-Southern Worcester MA-
Including the cities of Hartford, Windsor Locks, Union, Vernon,
Putnam, Willimantic, Blandford, Springfield, Milford,
and Worcester
451 AM EST Wed Feb 8 2017

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS
MORNING...

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM TO 9 PM EST
THURSDAY...

The National Weather Service in Taunton has issued a Winter Storm
Warning for heavy snow...which is in effect from 4 AM to 9 PM EST
Thursday. The Winter Storm Watch is no longer in effect.

* Locations...Interior Massachusetts which includes the cities
  and towns of Blandford, Springfield, Milford, and Worcester.

* Hazard Types...Freezing rain/drizzle this morning then heavy
  snow Thursday.

* Accumulations...a trace of ice this morning then Snow
  accumulation of 8 to 12 inches Thursday.

* Timing...Pockets of freezing rain this morning. Heavy snow will
  begin early Thursday morning and last through much of the day
  before ending Thursday evening. Snow could fall heavy at times
  and impact both the morning and evening commutes.

You may be turning a blind eye but AFD did discuss how there was a jog south in some of the guidance. Notice how they separated out the counties in the warnings, the counties north of the Pike are now 6-12 in the warnings vs. 8-12 south.  It could just be noise but there has been a slight shift for some.

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1 minute ago, CTValleySnowMan said:

You may be turning a blind eye but AFD did discuss how there was a jog south in some of the guidance. Notice how they separated out the counties in the warnings, the counties north of the Pike are now 6-12 in the warnings vs. 8-12 south.  It could just be noise but there has been a slight shift for some.

If you or they are focusing on qpf then you would think there was a jog. The NW deform band will be well NW . Always is yet some never learn 

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2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

If you or they are focusing on qpf then you would think there was a jog. The NW deform band will be well NW . Always is yet some never learn 

I'm not focusing on qpf, rather the track of the low. Your right about the deform in many cases but for some on the fringes it makes a difference.  Overall a healthier storm with a better precip shield and banding should make up for the southward jog in many cases but a jog south/east on some guidance was definitely there.  Anyways should be a good storm. 

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7 minutes ago, CTValleySnowMan said:

I'm not focusing on qpf, rather the track of the low. Your right about the deform in many cases but for some on the fringes it makes a difference.  Overall a healthier storm with a better precip shield and banding should make up for the southward jog in many cases but a jog south/east on some guidance was definitely there.  Anyways should be a good storm. 

Yeah if we see someone get upset because they are getting 8" instead of 12" in like NW Mass or something after the mild winter we've had,,it would be very sad

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14 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Yeah if we see someone get upset because they are getting 8" instead of 12" in like NW Mass or something after the mild winter we've had,,it would be very sad

6-10" is my call here based on the shifts.  The lower end would not shock me but I would lean towards 8"

The deform band is the key

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34 minutes ago, CTValleySnowMan said:

You may be turning a blind eye but AFD did discuss how there was a jog south in some of the guidance. Notice how they separated out the counties in the warnings, the counties north of the Pike are now 6-12 in the warnings vs. 8-12 south.  It could just be noise but there has been a slight shift for some.

 

Take another look--some counties (GC) are only 4-8".

 

26.9* at the Pit, still a nippy 17* at Pit-2.

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58 minutes ago, CTValleySnowMan said:

I'm not focusing on qpf, rather the track of the low. Your right about the deform in many cases but for some on the fringes it makes a difference.  Overall a healthier storm with a better precip shield and banding should make up for the southward jog in many cases but a jog south/east on some guidance was definitely there.  Anyways should be a good storm. 

excellent post

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53 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Yeah if we see someone get upset because they are getting 8" instead of 12" in like NW Mass or something after the mild winter we've had,,it would be very sad

no one will be upset with that kind of "instead of".....looks like you are good for a foot no matter what happens

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7 minutes ago, codfishsnowman said:

no one will be upset with that kind of "instead of".....looks like you are good for a foot no matter what happens

he always is. its like Orh locale, close enough e/se  for stuff when James creates rough drafts of novels in his basement over and far enough inland when james says "its not fair that I rain in winter". its a win either way. 

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