bboughton Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 NWS calling 8-12" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 RPM has a stripe of 8-10 from NYC to HVN to PVD to south of boston and some 10-12 spots near nyc and south of boston, first run where it's actually got a clue Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 one sref member has 30 inches I knew there had to be one before I looked.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 The SREFs aren't too crazy for Hyannis, right now. Their monster amounts is 17.5" while the mean is around 5.5" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 I almost never melt. I did, and within a week we have a MECS on the way. You're welcome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 I would love to see the 00z runs tonight. I think we can get stronger surface low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 8, 2017 Author Share Posted February 8, 2017 10 minutes ago, weathafella said: I almost never melt. I did, and within a week we have a MECS on the way. You're welcome. You're too old to melt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 16 minutes ago, weathafella said: I almost never melt. I did, and within a week we have a MECS on the way. You're welcome. You melted 2/13 hours before you got crushed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 16 minutes ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: I would love to see the 00z runs tonight. I think we can get stronger surface low. why? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 This is such a monster storm, just five millibars deeper throughout the 00z runs suite, then I will forecast up to 24" regionwide. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 Just now, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: This is such a monster storm, just five millibars deeper throughout the 00z runs suite, then I will forecast up to 24" regionwide. it seems movement will limit totals, it needs to slow down Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 Just now, Bostonseminole said: why? Why the models aren't done trending with the surface low strength. The southern stream shortwave just made it onshore the NW pacific states. They will finally absorb the data points on the shortwave and the models will have the full intensity of that shortwave in depth and produce the end results we are all waiting for. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 Just now, Bostonseminole said: it seems movement will limit totals, it needs to slow down The deeper the surface low, the slower the movement, it just needs to slow down for 24 hours of snowfall. IF we can get that to verify then we would be in business. This has the potential to be the biggest storm of the season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 17 minutes ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: I would love to see the 00z runs tonight. I think we can get stronger surface low. James they(models) could come in weaker and less impressive too..that's always a possibility unfortunately. But I hope they don't disappoint. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Semper911 Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 1 minute ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: This is such a monster storm, just five millibars deeper throughout the 00z runs suite, then I will forecast up to 24" regionwide. You're awesome, James. Seriously. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 1 hour ago, bboughton said: NWS calling 8-12" I see BOX has already gone ahead with their new CWA boundaries that NWS HQ is telling us definitely is not happening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 4 minutes ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: Why the models aren't done trending with the surface low strength. The southern stream shortwave just made it onshore the NW pacific states. They will finally absorb the data points on the shortwave and the models will have the full intensity of that shortwave in depth and produce the end results we are all waiting for. it could go the other way also. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 There is no 1-1 relationship with intensity of storms and regionwide snowfall. I have scene sub 970 lows deliver a narrow area of 18" and 985 lows deliver 1-2' region wide. 4-5 mb won't make or break a storm. It does not work like that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 3 minutes ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: The deeper the surface low, the slower the movement, it just needs to slow down for 24 hours of snowfall. IF we can get that to verify then we would be in business. This has the potential to be the biggest storm of the season. that's not much of a feat lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 Nammy f-gen (clockwise from top left 850, 750, 650, 700 mb). Ideally you would like to see those f-gen maxes collocated inside the black hatched lines (basically your jet forcing), but this is all developing so quickly that I think we struggle to align everything for a long period of time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: There is no 1-1 relationship with intensity of storms and regionwide snowfall. I have scene sub 970 lows deliver a narrow area of 18" and 985 lows deliver 1-2' region wide. 4-5 mb won't make or break a storm. It does not work like that. Look at 12/29-30. Tucked a sub-980 mb low into the coast and couldn't get snow back to the CT River in NH. Sometimes these late bloomers don't have time to expand the forcing west and everything stays tighter to the low track. A possible caution flag. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 7 minutes ago, Bostonseminole said: it could go the other way also. In James' world, everything coalesces into 1978. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 15 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: You melted 2/13 hours before you got crushed I thought that was on the heels of 1/26/11? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 8, 2017 Author Share Posted February 8, 2017 1 minute ago, OceanStWx said: Look at 12/29-30. Tucked a sub-980 mb low into the coast and couldn't get snow back to the CT River in NH. Sometimes these late bloomers don't have time to expand the forcing west and everything stays tighter to the low track. A possible caution flag. Nice discussion that you're adding here with the forcing. This is why the 00z runs are important. Really looks like the track has narrowed to around the BM. We can start delving into the details to look at where he best banding will set up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 Fast moving doesn't mean this couldn't produce decent totals. I wouldn't forecast 2'... but someone could definitely score ~20" in 12 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 8, 2017 Author Share Posted February 8, 2017 2 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: Fast moving doesn't mean this couldn't produce decent totals. I wouldn't forecast 2'... but someone could definitely score ~20" in 12 hours I'm not ready to go there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 1 minute ago, Baroclinic Zone said: I'm not ready to go there. yeah me either. You definitely wouldn't want to forecast that until closer in... when there is a better idea of where the best banding sets up and for how long. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 16 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: Look at 12/29-30. Tucked a sub-980 mb low into the coast and couldn't get snow back to the CT River in NH. Sometimes these late bloomers don't have time to expand the forcing west and everything stays tighter to the low track. A possible caution flag. I was supposed to sniff ozone in that storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 Just now, CoastalWx said: I was supposed to sniff ozone in that storm. You aren't still picking pieces of your roof out of the Atlantic? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 Interestingly the major model guidance is all pretty much right on top of each other with heights out west. Maybe the GFS is a hair, and I mean hair, deeper. Raobs show that MFR and REV are deeper than modeled, and OTX and UIL are higher than modeled heights. So maybe a double whammy, deeper undercutting shortwave plus higher than forecast PNA ridging? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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