Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,586
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    LopezElliana
    Newest Member
    LopezElliana
    Joined

February 9th Coastal Storm Discussion


Baroclinic Zone

Recommended Posts

  • Replies 2.5k
  • Created
  • Last Reply
Just now, Bostonseminole said:

why?

Why the models aren't done trending with the surface low strength.  The southern stream shortwave just made it onshore the NW pacific states.  They will finally absorb the data points on the shortwave and the models will have the full intensity of that shortwave in depth and produce the end results we are all waiting for.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just now, Bostonseminole said:

it seems movement will limit totals, it needs to slow down

The deeper the surface low, the slower the movement, it just needs to slow down for 24 hours of snowfall.  IF we can get that to verify then we would be in business.  This has the potential to be the biggest storm of the season.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

4 minutes ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said:

Why the models aren't done trending with the surface low strength.  The southern stream shortwave just made it onshore the NW pacific states.  They will finally absorb the data points on the shortwave and the models will have the full intensity of that shortwave in depth and produce the end results we are all waiting for.

it could go the other way also.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Nammy f-gen (clockwise from top left 850, 750, 650, 700 mb). 

Ideally you would like to see those f-gen maxes collocated inside the black hatched lines (basically your jet forcing), but this is all developing so quickly that I think we struggle to align everything for a long period of time.

NAMFgen.png

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

There is no 1-1 relationship with intensity of storms and regionwide snowfall. I have scene sub 970 lows deliver a narrow area of 18" and 985 lows deliver 1-2' region wide. 4-5 mb won't make or break a storm. It does not work like that.

Look at 12/29-30. Tucked a sub-980 mb low into the coast and couldn't get snow back to the CT River in NH. 

Sometimes these late bloomers don't have time to expand the forcing west and everything stays tighter to the low track. A possible caution flag.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, OceanStWx said:

Look at 12/29-30. Tucked a sub-980 mb low into the coast and couldn't get snow back to the CT River in NH. 

Sometimes these late bloomers don't have time to expand the forcing west and everything stays tighter to the low track. A possible caution flag.

Nice discussion that you're adding here with the forcing.  This is why the 00z runs are important.  Really looks like the track has narrowed to  around the BM.  We can start delving into the details to look at where he best banding will set up.

 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

16 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

Look at 12/29-30. Tucked a sub-980 mb low into the coast and couldn't get snow back to the CT River in NH. 

Sometimes these late bloomers don't have time to expand the forcing west and everything stays tighter to the low track. A possible caution flag.

I was supposed to sniff ozone in that storm.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Interestingly the major model guidance is all pretty much right on top of each other with heights out west. Maybe the GFS is a hair, and I mean hair, deeper.

Raobs show that MFR and REV are deeper than modeled, and OTX and UIL are higher than modeled heights. So maybe a double whammy, deeper undercutting shortwave plus higher than forecast PNA ridging?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...