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February 9th Coastal Storm Discussion


Baroclinic Zone

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12 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Full blown jackpot fetish mode in here already....I think it's going to be a pretty good storm in a large swath...it's going to be moving along so nobody is going to get stuck in a dryslot for hours...I think everyone will get some good bands. Yeah, there will be a lucky sweetspot, but I don't see 8-10" differences over a few miles like sometimes happens in other storms.

 The JP fetish king  is still at work too!!!

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6 minutes ago, codfishsnowman said:

rgem is awful back here, didn't it sniff out the east trend with the jan 15 storm?

Can't be greedy, you won't jack but will get warning snow that doesn't turn to sheet drizzle.  If you go 6"+ don't even worry about what someone else is getting 40mi E. 

Plenty of time to come W a few tics too.

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2 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

Should end up being 2 significant storms in 3 days here.  Today was not huge totals but a few quick inches of heavy snow followed by sleet is a moderate impact event in my book.

And snow over the weekend.  Winter making up for lost time.

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5 minutes ago, White Rain said:

I find it funny that 48 hours ago we were looking at basically nothing but as the storm gets close and it looks significant people start sweating over 8" vs 12" on model depictions. This storm is going to be great all around. Finally a decent storm for the area!

Well it's been clear since Saturday that this was coming. What has changed is how it's now a major event 

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10 minutes ago, White Rain said:

True there were signs of it then but even though it has sucked in this event, last nights GFS had 0" for basically all of SNE. There have been a lot of doubts about its impact until today.

the posibility was pointed out last week and there many red flags over the wknd and yesterday. 

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24 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

Can't be greedy, you won't jack but will get warning snow that doesn't turn to sheet drizzle.  If you go 6"+ don't even worry about what someone else is getting 40mi E. 

Plenty of time to come W a few tics too.

having a jackpot fetish is wanting to be the guy who gets the 18 inches, (that will never happen here, I get it) I would just like one daytime storm to really hammer it down with blinding snow for a few hours ( not 15-30 minutes) and produce a good foot or so but watching 30-40 mi east get 12-18 while you baking soda youre way to 3-6 or so with 1 mi vis is getting to be very common. 

And for the folks nw of you, there are no words...I hope there is a March 1888 redux in store for them someday

The one good thing is that no one is forecasting ridiculous non climo likely results like back in Jan 15, but as bad as this area is I think what I described above isn't that unrealistic

If I truly was greedy I would be bummed about missing a few inches by a few miles today, I didn't see one flake

and the 18z gfs is close to danger for us as well, the gfs may have sniffed out the general idea a week or so ago but I have noticed (thermals aside) that it sometimes picks up on subtle trends closer in

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3 minutes ago, weathafella said:

RPM details?

Still coming out...it comes out at a snail's pace.

It's gonna be a huge hit for SE MA, but prob warning snows back to CT River anyway. But it's been well SE the whole time...so it's playing catchup I think.

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34 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said:

How do you get the RGEM to show 60 hour total accumulation on that UQAM site? The drop down for me only goes to 48 hours even on the 18Z run.

You have to open the image in a separate browser tab, and then manually edit the times in the link. Maybe they hid it for our own protection though...

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3 minutes ago, weathafella said:

Thanks Will.  Boston included in SE MA?

Yeah prob 8-10 this run....kind of does a little slide east at the very last second to limit totals...but it looked really impressive further SW, so I think it's just a matter of time until it gives us a classic RPM 18-20" run.

 

Anyways, just weenie fodder in the "dead zone" time of the night. I agree with Kevin, prob not really worth looking at until 12 hours out....lol. Ok, maybe I'll give it 24 hours out.

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1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah prob 8-10 this run....kind of does a little slide east at the very last second to limit totals...but it looked really impressive further SW, so I think it's just a matter of time until it gives us a classic RPM 18-20" run.

 

Anyways, just weenie fodder in the "dead zone" time of the night. I agree with Kevin, prob not really worth looking at until 12 hours out....lol. Ok, maybe I'll give it 24 hours out.

Kind of like NAM most of the time..lol.

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