TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 On 2/6/2017 at 4:08 PM, CoastalWx said: Mostly because QPF is less than .5" Expand Yeah... it seems it just gets pulled east quickly... pretty meh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 Some ensemble members are really amped up with our storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 On 2/6/2017 at 4:14 PM, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: Some ensemble members are really amped up with our storm. Expand Your biggest worry is going to be how long you have mixing issues Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 gfs back to its usually self, shunting systems east quickly. Cant discount it though but id bet somewhere between nam/euro vs gfs, like 65/35 is where this ends up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 On 2/6/2017 at 4:14 PM, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: Some ensemble members are really amped up with our storm. Expand two of the members had 12 to 18" snow results ... wicked torqued 500 mb negative tilt with meso-beta scaled dynamically induced negative anomaly means there are intense events going on aloft as those members evolved this thing. Not saying the even will evolve exactly like this, but I was taken aback by the presentation at least a little by those members that look this way... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 6, 2017 Author Share Posted February 6, 2017 On 2/6/2017 at 4:25 PM, Typhoon Tip said: two of the members had 12 to 18" snow results ... wicked torqued 500 mb negative tilt with meso-beta scaled dynamically induced negative anomaly means there are intense events going on aloft as those members evolved this thing. Not saying things will evolve like this, but I was taken aback by the presentation at least a little by those members that look this way... Expand To me that image would imply the northern stream caught up to the southern stream tugging it back W. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 On 2/6/2017 at 4:27 PM, Baroclinic Zone said: To me that image would imply the northern stream caught up to the southern stream tugging it back W. Expand OH yeah... those member with cleaner phasing go nuts ...as they should... That's an open wave progression but a with superior mechanics working it still bombs the result, and in time to nail the upper MA and SNE/E ME. . That's like 1004 to 980something inside of 12 hours there... Pretty excessive deepening rates - that's 0 vis snow there in a solution that wild. Should also point out/make clear: that's cherry picked 00z member(s) - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 On 2/6/2017 at 4:32 PM, Typhoon Tip said: OH yeah... those member with cleaner phasing go nuts ...as they should... That's an open wave progression but a with superior mechanics working it still bombs the result, and in time to nail the upper MA and SNE/E ME. . That's like 1004 to 980something inside of 12 hours there... Pretty excessive deepening rates - that's 0 vis snow there in a solution that wild. Should also point out/make clear: that's cherry picked 00z member(s) - Expand Oh definitely, but the fact that some ensemble members show this extreme scenario tells me that the potential is at least there for a blizzard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 A few things: seems like the slower this thing develops... the better the end result will be for us. also....id definitely favor a quicker type solution like the GFS right now, which would keep maximum amounts at around 6" or so. Unless there is evidence in future model runs that could really slow this down... it looks like a quick hitter. Im also guessing the CMC is out to lunch... but will wait to see what the euro does before making that claim Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 6, 2017 Author Share Posted February 6, 2017 On 2/6/2017 at 4:39 PM, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: Oh definitely, but the fact that some ensemble members show this extreme scenario tells me that the potential is at least there for a blizzard. Expand Oh no you didn't... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 On 2/6/2017 at 4:42 PM, Baroclinic Zone said: Oh no you didn't... Expand I'm not saying it will be happening, I said potential, gosh, listen to what I say. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 Agree that slower is better. Euro was slower last night and NAM is today. Any word on uncle? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 On 2/6/2017 at 4:41 PM, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: A few things: seems like the slower this thing develops... the better the end result will be for us. also....id definitely favor a quicker type solution like the GFS right now, which would keep maximum amounts at around 6" or so. Unless there is evidence in future model runs that could really slow this down... it looks like a quick hitter. Im also guessing the CMC is out to lunch... but will wait to see what the euro does before making that claim Expand So you are ignoring the Euro? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 6, 2017 Author Share Posted February 6, 2017 On 2/6/2017 at 4:44 PM, weathafella said: Agree that slower is better. Euro was slower last night and NAM is today. Any word on uncle? Expand Just peeking at it now. Tough to tell between 72 & 96 where it tracks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 6, 2017 Author Share Posted February 6, 2017 On 2/6/2017 at 4:43 PM, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: I'm not saying it will be happening, I said potential, gosh, listen to what I say. Expand You throw out the B work like handing out candy to kids on Halloween. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 On 2/6/2017 at 4:44 PM, weathafella said: Agree that slower is better. Euro was slower last night and NAM is today. Any word on uncle? Expand Bombing low running the coast , precip maps only out to 72, runs from 1007 to 969 in Nova Scotia Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 On 2/6/2017 at 4:49 PM, Baroclinic Zone said: You throw out the B work like handing out candy to kids on Halloween. Expand there's ALWAYS a potential, don't you know that, c'mon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 Uncle suggests NAM like solution but we'll see when the Euro is available for that time frame in about 70 minutes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 6, 2017 Author Share Posted February 6, 2017 On 2/6/2017 at 4:52 PM, The 4 Seasons said: there's ALWAYS a potential, don't you know that, c'mon. Expand .001% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 On 2/6/2017 at 4:52 PM, weathafella said: Uncle suggests NAM like solution but we'll see when the Euro is available for that time frame in about 70 minutes. Expand That is my take as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hazey Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 On 2/6/2017 at 4:49 PM, Ginx snewx said: Bombing low running the coast , precip maps only out to 72, runs from 1007 to 969 in Nova ScotiaWe don't toss. 38mb in 24hrs. Yummy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 Yeah Ukie intervals are annoying...I wish they would finally graduate out of the late 1990s for graphics...that said, it looks more NAM than GFS on those maps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 GEFS look good to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 6, 2017 Author Share Posted February 6, 2017 On 2/6/2017 at 5:01 PM, CoastalWx said: GEFS look good to me. Expand Yeah. Slower than the 06z run too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 the 24 map intervals look like an inside the bm track Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 Fwiw snow numbers are nice for MEX. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J Paul Gordon Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 If verified (huge emphasis on "if") what parts of SNE/CNE/NNE will really benefit. Odd that this close in it is so much up in the air. Is this all due to the Tues/Wed non-event? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 On 2/6/2017 at 5:00 PM, ORH_wxman said: Yeah Ukie intervals are annoying...I wish they would finally graduate out of the late 1990s for graphics...that said, it looks more NAM than GFS on those maps. Expand They were on WXbell for awhile in 12hr intervals i believe, but then they were removed for some reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 MEX is essentially all 8's for all far inland CT, 6's for inland southern 4 counties, 4's for all coastal locations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 On 2/6/2017 at 5:30 PM, The 4 Seasons said: MEX is essentially all 8's for all far inland CT, 6's for inland southern 4 counties, 4's for all coastal locations. Expand precip issues for the gold coast, as feared. this has I84 sn/mix line written all over it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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